Need help on a Alt Pacific War timeline

Alternate War in the Pacific:

Shortly after the Great War was finished the former alliances parted and life started to go its normal way. The Great Powers, minus the unstable USSR and Germany, who was banned, agreed to limit their military spending in the hope to get a save new world. Treaties, like the Washington Naval Treaty, were signed as in the OTL. For at least a decade there indeed was peace more or less and economical growth worldwide.

With the crash of the stockmarkets at Wallstreet in 1929, the economy plunged into a bottomless pit internationally, while worldwide, the international feelings of the 20’s were overwritten by more short term locally focused national issues, such as protection of trade and recovery. The Crises resulted in the rise of anti democratic thinkings, such as Fascism and Communism, more than before and some states got a totalitarian government after some time. Germany became the most prominent Nationalist State, with the NSDAP in the lead of the government. Italy already was Fascist since the 20’s, but remained relatively dormant internationally. The USSR was still in internal turmoil, due to the internal competition of factions for the successor of the death of Lenin. Japan too changed from a Parliamentary Monarchy, to a form of military dictatorship, with the Army leading the politics in the state.

New alliances were formed, with the Germans and Italians starting with the Axis Rome-Berlin, to which was added later Japan and some smaller European states, south - east of Germany. The UK and France allied to counter German aggression against other European states, predominantly Poland. The USA want4ed nothing of this and remained strictly neutral, although the internationalist FDR as president wanted to aid the Western Allies as good as possible.

In 1939, War started when Polland was invaded by both USSR and Germany, following a declaration of War from the UK and France to Germany and the USSR. (Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact as in OTL). In 1940, the Germans conquered Western Europe, which resulted in the collapse of France and an armistice with the UK, as the new UK government saw no reason to continue the fighting on its own. (Churchill had been replaced by the more pragmatic Halifax.) War was essentially over after the collapse of France, with an intact UK and Dominion world and a more or less intact Germany, in military terms. The German Kriegsmarine had only lost a few ships, and almost no real losses in the land war. The British had lost so far only one battleship and one carrier, both in the start of the war, but nothing else. Italy had remained neutral so far, as Hitler had pushed Mussolini so far with aids and good talking, fearing that Italy might open a new front, dividing the frontlines more, than desired. There would be no war in Africa and none in the Balkan so far.

Japan was also moving into an attack position, as it already was fighting in China for several years, but did not gain much from it so far. It wanted more resources, to get an input in the economy and resources for the Army, but these wanted resources were in foreign territory.

At first the plan to wage war against the West was as originally planned in the OTL, but now Germany offered a new option, as the war in Europe was over and the USA were still out of the war. Germany wanted to keep things so, more or less, as it wanted to crush the USSR once and for all, despite the treaty they had with Stalin. Germany pointed the Japanese on the weak Dutch East Indies, as well as the oil rich peninsula of Kamchatka in the Far East of the USSR. This offered the Japanese an option to fight a limited war, against significant weaker odds, than originally planned, as the fear of the industrial might of the USA particularly was threatening enough.

The plan was the following: Germany would strike first at the USSR, early 1941, as the war in Europe already was over and the bulk of the Wehrmacht could therefore be deployed against only a single front, while secondary units were considered more than adequate to take control over the occupied lands in the West. Italy too would join from the start, as it had been left out of the fighting so far. Hitler and the Germans wanted no split in fronts, so Italy was not allowed to open hostilities against Greece, as originally proposed. Japan could go to war after six months or so, following the Germans in their war against the USSR, in order to split the USSR in a two front war, making things easy for both.

At than same time, the Japanese could also mount amphibian operations against the Dutch East Indies, who remained independent so far from the other Western Allies, while the Netherlands themselves were already occupied by Germany. The Task however was to keep the British out of the fight and so Malaya and Singapore were left out of the fighting, although French Indo China was taken over form the French, who were actually the Vichy French, already cooperating with the Germans. Hong Kong was also left alone, as it had no real military purpose. The Philippines remained under US control, but were partially independent.


A short summary of the Alternate War in the Pacific:

On the 7th of December 1941, Japan launched its strike on both the USSR and the Dutch East Indies. The Navy mounted only a limited campaign in the Dutch East Indies, as the opposition was limited and the Dutch forces spread thinly. The War against the USSR was a landcampaign, from Manchuko Province. Only a small landing took place on the island of Sakalin, to secure the oil rich bases over there. As the USSR already was six months or so in war with Germany and Italy, forces in the Far East were thinly spread, making things easy for the not all to well equipped IJA.

1942:

The remains of the Dutch East Indies were colonised by Japan and the Dutch driven out. The USSR was further invaded and the siege of Vladivostok started, as this was the only real base of the Russians in this part of the world. This siege proved a hard thing to do, as the Russians continued to counterattack from the base and small reinforcements continued to try to reach the besieged pocket.

The main war on the USSR was going bad for the Russians, as the Blitz of the Germans again and again caught them by surprise, as the inflexible structure of the Red Army did not allow quick thinking and frustrated any countermove. The War in Russia was this time commanded by a skilled military leader and not Hitler, as this time, he was in a good mood to listen to the skilled C&C officers. Although pockets of resistance remained in especially the cities Leningrad and Stalingrad, the Wehrmacht did not fall into the Russian trap of being lured into street to street fighting. It simply bypassed the cities and continue to roll further and further east, while secondary forces sieged the cities from the outside, starving them to death.
In may 24th 1942, Stalin was at his frontheadquarters in the city of Yakutsk, as the Germans had advanced so far inland already. Here he was betrayed by his own people and party officials, who were bribed by German spies to deliver him to the Germans, in exchange for a save exit. (Naturally this was not real, but real enough to let them believe so.) So said, so done. Stalin was in the end paraded through the streets of Berlin and finally executed after a showtrial.

In the meantime, the war in the Far East was concluded by the disintegration of the former USSR and accentuated by the surrender of Vladivostok in November 1942. The war was over and the new worldorder started with a large Japanese Empire in the West Pacific region, controlling most of Asia’s coastal regions along the Pacific and included the East Indies, formerly possessed by the Dutch. Economy boosted and Japan preciously kept the peace with the USA.

The Greatest power now was Germany, with a population of over 1 billion people and the largest economy and production in the world. The USA were second, mainly due to a smaller population, but also due to the boycott, it had installed itself on German goods and products. The UK remained third, as it still had all its Dominions and possessed the biggest Navy in the world in numbers of vessels at least. (The USN displaced more tonnage, having generally bigger ships.)

As long as Germany did not provoke both UK and USA, by building a large Navy or so, peace was guaranteed, since both UK and USA could not face the German Empire on land, and the Germans were inferior at sea. Japan remained in Asia and did not provoke the USA and UK, by laying claims on the Philippines or British possessions.

Two things:

#1. Interesting if albeit wankish timeline

#2. What the hell are you talking about? Thanks for completely ignoring the thread's question. If you want to post that stuff, start your own thread.

Again, following the POD that I have set out the question is "how quickly does Japan lose when it has to contend with a UK and USA that are focused on it? Can the UK save Singapore and Hong Kong?" I understand that whether Japan would go to war with both the UK and USA in this TL is debatable, but the question still stands.
 
Again, following the POD that I have set out the question is "how quickly does Japan lose when it has to contend with a UK and USA that are focused on it? Can the UK save Singapore and Hong Kong?" I understand that whether Japan would go to war with both the UK and USA in this TL is debatable, but the question still stands.

Japan will be defeated sooner, by at least a year. With no war in Europe, the USA and UK can concentrate their forces against Japan. There is no splitting of landing craft and landing ships among the various theaters. The UK can send more of everything to India and Burma, including ships. So Japan will be facing three large offensives instead of two. Australian, New Zealander, and Indian army units are free to redeploy closer to home.

The US Central Pacific offensive still has to wait on the arrival of the new construction. Redeployment of CVEs from the Atlantic to the Pacific will have some effect, probably in the New Guinea and Solomons area where there are air bases to back up the carriers.
 
Only a small landing took place on the island of Sakhalin, to secure the oil rich bases over there
Some one should tell Warsprite to look at a map, No Landings Needed, Japan gets in it's tanks and trucks and drives to the north end of the Island.

IIRC [mostly from discussions here] Britain knew it needed to reinforce the Pacific, but considered the ETO of higher priority.
ITTL Britain has the spare Forces and Equipment, So Malaysia, and Indonesia are not captured.
Japan begins to run out of Oil in late 1942, and is forced to surrender in late 1943.
 
Some one should tell Warsprite to look at a map, No Landings Needed, Japan gets in it's tanks and trucks and drives to the north end of the Island.

IIRC [mostly from discussions here] Britain knew it needed to reinforce the Pacific, but considered the ETO of higher priority.
ITTL Britain has the spare Forces and Equipment, So Malaysia, and Indonesia are not captured.
Japan begins to run out of Oil in late 1942, and is forced to surrender in late 1943.


Do you know about the topography of Sakalin, by the way??? It should be pleasant it there were at least roads and so on. Since these are completely absent and the mountains are not very accesable by vehicles, think again.
 
HMS Warspite, basically this is worthless.

Churchill is replaced by Halifax because...you can't make it work otherwise, which already kills any credibility it might have had.

Mussolini is persuaded to accept a permanent position as Hitler's lapdog because...see replacement of Churchill with Halifax reasoning.

Stalin kept 3000 tanks and a million troops in the Pacific even in the darkest days of 1941 and it was already established in 1938-39 that these forces would slaughter the Japanese in battle, given Japan's woeful inferiority in tanks and anti-tank capacity. This is avoided because...again no reason is given.

Japan's war in China, already bogging down so much of Japan's army, as well as Japan's oncoming train wreck of an economic collapse are avoided because...instead of just pretending these problems are magically resolved you are clearly unaware they even exist.


You can't post a credible AH if you just avoid so many important details.
 
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Two things:

#1. Interesting if albeit wankish timeline

#2. What the hell are you talking about? Thanks for completely ignoring the thread's question. If you want to post that stuff, start your own thread.

Again, following the POD that I have set out the question is "how quickly does Japan lose when it has to contend with a UK and USA that are focused on it? Can the UK save Singapore and Hong Kong?" I understand that whether Japan would go to war with both the UK and USA in this TL is debatable, but the question still stands.


The answer on this alone is quite simple, as the USA and UK will get defeated at first anyway, as they are both inferior before late 1942, early 1943.

The Pearl Harbor Attack will go ahead as planned, since the USA would not go to war, unless attacked first. Depending on how the attack was executed, the USN would be crippled for a while, more or less.

The attack on the Malaya and Singapore to confront the British would result in innitial defeat of the British and possibly the loss of Singapore, as this base i quite isolated and unable to get reenforced, without unacceptable losses, as soon as the IJA and IJN aircraft dominate the skies and accesroutes to the base. Even with all the British forces at full strength, the quality of the Japanese fightingmachine is likely to be underestimated still as the common view of the West was that Japanese were inferior people adn with poor eyesight. Since the British were not willing to loose their European superiority, the most modern units would remain in Europe anyway, to confront possible other European powers to confront them. Japan could be death with lesser forces, of non European standards. The USA would likely think the same way, as even they had a collored view on teh Japanese.

In the end the Allies would be victorious anyway, simply as they could put more resources into the wareffort, than Japan could. (Unless the Japanese somehow gained such an advantage possition, the costs of continuing the war would be considered too great for the Allies, although I don't think this was realy possible. Japan on its own was unlikely to do so adn needed strong allies to accomplish such a thing.
 
HMS Warspite, no, if Europe is at peace then the US and UK combined are superior to Japan in every area, even at sea.

How is the USN crippled until 1943 when it wasn't OTL at Pearl Harbor, winning the first strategic victory at Coral Sea and breaking the back of Japan's carrier fleet at Midway six months into the war?

Your scenario for Malaysis and Singapore...OTL Japan came to a razor's edge of losing at Singapore, now, given only a modest increase in forces already scheduled and assured once Europe is at peace not only Singapore but much of Malaysia is certain to remain in British hands while Japan suffers a defeat far more substantial than any they suffered until much later OTL.


I'm not even commenting about this continuing delusion that Japan might be able to render the war 'too costly' for the US to continue.
 
Guys

Various points come to mind.

a) In answer to MacGregor's question if war breaks out between Britain and Japan while Britain is not at war with Germany almost certainly Singapore and most/all of Malaya will be held. Can't see any way Hong Kong could be saved as its too isolated with the Japanese virtually surrounding it.

b) I can't see Germany forcing the Dutch to transfer the East Indies to Japan without it triggering war with Britain and probably the US as well. Its too important to protecting the rest of Britain's colonies in the east. Also, if happening after the Germans invade the SU and Japan hasn't done a dow on it what is the purpose. If Hitler can get the Japanese to agree to attack Stalin as well possibly. However why anger the Dutch and force a clash with the western powers unless he gets a confirmed deal with Japan? Which is not really in their interests as that probably means Japan is at war with China, Russia, Britain and America!

I could see Germany putting pressure on the Dutch colonial authorities, which might succeed, to agree to sell [possibly on favourable terms] oil and possibly other needed materials to Japan. This would get around the allied boycott in the way least likely to trigger further conflict they don't want at the moment. That's probably the worse case for the allies.

c) If Britain and Germany have made peace then so will Germany and France. That means that 'Vichy' France while under German domination wouldn't be a total puppet. As such what's the situation of French Indo-China. Their important both for isolating China from external supplies and more importantly giving the Japanese bases in range of Malay. However even a weakened France, partly under Germany's thumb, may not be too willing to cede control of its colony to Japan. Also, if Japan hasn't attacked Russia would Hitler be willing to force the French to make the Japanese happy? Not saying he wouldn't but could mean that the Japanese have to fight the French as well. [Hitler might even welcome Japan fighting the western powers on their own as a way of keeping them off Germany's back while their crushing Russia].

d) Even Stalin is likely to take precautions against a German attack in 41 if Britain makes peace in 40. However the big gains for Germany in a solo war in the east come after not before July 41. While they will have to watch France and Britain to some degree they will have a lot more resources free with no shooting war in the west [or N Africa or at sea or over German cities]. This will free up a lot of manpower and production especially since the navy is likely to get a lot less resources. Also without Britain in the conflict there is going to be a lot less western aid to Russia. Furthermore without a war in the west Germany isn't cut off from external trade so can buy material they can't easily produce. [Including oil, specialised metals etc. Still have to find willing buyers which could be awkward but not impossible].

e) Given the situation, with Germany dominant in Europe and ploughing through Russia there is no way that Britain will not be on an at least semi-war footing. It won't have the insane rush to produce at all costs but will be rearming pretty damned heavily and putting a hell of a lot into R&D. Probably not enough to produce a nuke earlier than about 46-47 without US help but jets and improved tanks will come earlier as will a lot of naval reconstruction.

f) If Japan gets involved in a rumble with the US and UK with neither of the latter at war in Europe its going to be very one sided. Under those circumstances Malaya and neighbouring areas aren't going to have a token force defence. [Apart from far more forces being available the Far East is a useful place to developed forces and techniques out of sight of the Germans]. The Japanese carrier forces will be a nasty shock but the RN and USN will have far too much muscle even without what's on the way. Also on land and in the air the Japanese, especially with so much tied up in China, will be overwhelmed.

If the US stays out and its just Britain, Chinese and Dutch v Japan it will be a lot tougher and might end up with a negotiated peace but expect Japan to lose. The killer blow could be an advance through China, using heavily equipped western forces to stomp or isolate Japanese concentrations while the Chinese forces tie up the bulk of their army.

Steve
 
HMS Warspite, no, if Europe is at peace then the US and UK combined are superior to Japan in every area, even at sea.

How is the USN crippled until 1943 when it wasn't OTL at Pearl Harbor, winning the first strategic victory at Coral Sea and breaking the back of Japan's carrier fleet at Midway six months into the war?

Your scenario for Malaysis and Singapore...OTL Japan came to a razor's edge of losing at Singapore, now, given only a modest increase in forces already scheduled and assured once Europe is at peace not only Singapore but much of Malaysia is certain to remain in British hands while Japan suffers a defeat far more substantial than any they suffered until much later OTL.


I'm not even commenting about this continuing delusion that Japan might be able to render the war 'too costly' for the US to continue.



The US Pacific Fleet was not only the fleet, but also its primary base Pearl Harbor, which could have been destroyed as well, leaving the US Pacific Fleet, or waht was left of it, without major bases outside the Westcoast. For every countermove, the USN needed a foreward major base as a launchingplatform. With Pearl Harbor out for a while, such a thing was very difficult, no matter how you look at it.

In theory, Nagumo could have finished off the US Pacific Fleet in port on the 7th of Decembver 1941, by destroying the harborinstalations and fueldepots of the base, besides the bombing and torpedoing of some ships. With all fueldepots destroyed and major damage to the harborinstalations, the base would more or less cease to excist, forcing the US Fleet back to the West Coast. It depended on the time nmeeded to rebuilt the base, how long the delay in a possible counteroffensive would take, besides the building of new ships and training of men, naturally.

The Singapore attack is something different, as you already mentioned. The early attack of the Japanese in the OTL was carried out by an exhausted IJA force, who was more surprised the base surendered so quickly, than many others. In time, a normal siege would be scheduled of longer time, starving the base and the people in the city, by blocking off routes to and from the base, mainly from neighbouring Malayan airfields, where the IJA and IJN had possitioned airgroups already. By doing so, the controll of the skies was for the Japanese and any reenforcement to Singapore had to fight its way through, simmilar to the Malta Supply in the Med. In time, the Japanese siege would certainly result in drop of both moral and capacity of the Allied troops in the blocked base.

The problem is that even the UK would not have send the first line units to Asia, as these were hold in reserve in Europe, for a possible war there as well. It was suicidal in any scenario to ship them to Asia prior to a Japanese attack. Asia always was a sideshow for a European Power as the UK still was. Dispite its possessions there, the core remained the UK homeland, which was to get the first line miltary units alone, given the technological advanced adversaries likely to be found in Europe. Japan was not considered very advanced, although it was considered aggressive. The Singapore and Malayan Allied forces would remain second line troops and units only anyway, with reduced fightingcapacity, compared to the European units.

This meant that theere would be no British first rate aircraft in Asia, such as the Spitfire and even the Hurricane at first, but propably later, after the start of the war. No first rate warships, except a very few at best, such as HMS Prince of Wales and HMS Indomitable. The core remained in Europe as well. (Actually HMS Prince of Wales at first was to be either HMS Nelson, or later the untrained and brand new HMS Duke of York, which luckily did not sail to this part of the world.) The UK wanted its modern fleet units near the homebases in the UK, since both Germany, France adn Italy too had modern ships as well. Older vessels were less urgently missed, so could be spared for a secondary theater of military operations.
 
In fact only the decision to rush all aid to the USSR prevented 200 Spitfires from being at Singapore OTL and now that the UK is out of the war a modest percentage of the fighters crated in reserve will easily add many hundreds of fighters to Singapore's defenses.

Likewise it won't take much in the way of army units to smash the Japanese attack as nearly took place OTL. A single tank regiment, not even the most modern tanks, would have been a disastrous event for the Japanese.



As for the USN, none of what you mention would have prevented the USN from using other bases temporarily, likely in Australia, and also from rebuilding Pearl Harbor within 1942.
 
In fact only the decision to rush all aid to the USSR prevented 200 Spitfires from being at Singapore OTL and now that the UK is out of the war a modest percentage of the fighters crated in reserve will easily add many hundreds of fighters to Singapore's defenses.

Likewise it won't take much in the way of army units to smash the Japanese attack as nearly took place OTL. A single tank regiment, not even the most modern tanks, would have been a disastrous event for the Japanese.



As for the USN, none of what you mention would have prevented the USN from using other bases temporarily, likely in Australia, and also from rebuilding Pearl Harbor within 1942.

Or even, indeed, Singapore :)

The idea of Malaya falling easily, with better UK forces and Australian forces present (one major effect would be the simple fact that they arent getting the fag-end of the British officer corps this time), and especially with FIC not given up by Vichy (why, exactly, would this happen with France and Germany now at peace?? Fairies?), more aircraft, a balanced fleet (certainly 2 A/C, possibly more), is ASB.

Now have the USN deploy at least part of its forces there, some more in Australia, and where are the IJN going to go? Even if we assume they knocked out PH, so what?? There isnt anywhere useful to go in the mid-Pacific, even if they had the fleet train (which they dont). So they end up having to butt heads with the RN and USN on their own ground. And this is going to go well for Japan precisely how, again??? :rolleyes:
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
The same way that Nagumo is going to destroy the entire Pearl Harbor infrastructue when he lacks the fuel, time and orders to do it.

It is all part of the same odd version of 1941-42 that our friend seems to believe existed.
Or even, indeed, Singapore :)

The idea of Malaya falling easily, with better UK forces and Australian forces present (one major effect would be the simple fact that they arent getting the fag-end of the British officer corps this time), and especially with FIC not given up by Vichy (why, exactly, would this happen with France and Germany now at peace?? Fairies?), more aircraft, a balanced fleet (certainly 2 A/C, possibly more), is ASB.

Now have the USN deploy at least part of its forces there, some more in Australia, and where are the IJN going to go? Even if we assume they knocked out PH, so what?? There isnt anywhere useful to go in the mid-Pacific, even if they had the fleet train (which they dont). So they end up having to butt heads with the RN and USN on their own ground. And this is going to go well for Japan precisely how, again??? :rolleyes:
 

burmafrd

Banned
There were not enough bombs and planes to do serious damage to the Shipyard at Pearl. A third strike aimed at the oil farm would have been valuable as that would have forced the US to use all its available tankers for several months to replace the fuel once the tanks were repaired. Minus the fuel farm it would have crippled the US Fleet as regards any serious movement west. We did not have enough tankers to support a fleet that would have had to get its fuel from San Diego.But once again we are talking maybe 3-4 months before the fuel farm is repaired and filled. Now admittedly that would surely help the IJN situation, but really how much?
 

Markus

Banned
Japan begins to run out of Oil in late 1942, and is forced to surrender in late 1943.

:D


It is all part of the same odd version of 1941-42 that our friend seems to believe existed.

disclaimer: i´m a bit drunk.

why do you guys even react? i stopped reading what the-one-with-the-undeserved-nick wrote when he went on about the japanese using nazi organisations making accusations of warcrimes to undermind the us´s post-ph will to fight. or something like that. it just absurd, too absurd to remember.
 
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