Alt-Versailles and how to get there ?
Ok, I assume to general consensus is that the CP is going to win this one, although, as some have said, it will take a while.
Having thought this a bit out this morning on my way to work, here's a rough scenario on what might happen.
1915
Germany, confident in its position, launches an offensive against Paris, which fails, badly.
During the course of the German attack, Nicholas will do what he did OTL and initiate a general offensive to alleviate pressure off of his allies. With the A-H in much better shape and their multi-lingual pre-war officer corps intact, the Russian offensive gets nowhere. It does however provide some experience to the A-H troops, as well as lots of casualties for both sides.
Next, I think the Germans would try to bleed the French white at Verdun in the hope of breaking them. Again, gruesome losses for both sides in the meatgrinder. Again, a futile Russian offensive. Maybe also a British one, that, with the earlier loss of the BEF, will make the OTL Battle of the Somme look like a superbly handled affair.
With the situation looking so bad, Italy probably decides against joining.
1916
The Kaiser switches tactics and decides to shift focus on the faltering Russians. The subsequent offensives are largely succesfull and lead to the abdication of Nicholas and the provisional government taking control, with Alexei as a figurehead tsar.
In the west, the Germans dig in while the allies switch to the offensive. The subsequent debacles nearly bankrupt France, while morale plummets.
1917
By late February, with famie gripping the major cities, the new Russian government falls to socialist revolutionaries who sue for peace one month later.
With the war going better for them, the Germans do not go the route of unrestricted submarine warfare outside the immediate area of the British Isles.
The Germans switch their attention to France, and, over the next months, continously push against the French defences. With their economy struggling, the French eventually experience a shortage of shells, which, coupled with new German stormtrooper tactics, enable the Germans to encircle Paris.
This also pushes an opportunistic Italy to side with the CP, sensing their imminent victory. With Paris about to fall, the Entente agree to a ceasefire and negotiations. During the course of these, Paris will remain blockaded by the Germans, with only food being allowed through.
Meanwhile, in Russia, Lenin's bolshevics launch a partially succesfull coup against the socialist revolutionaries. Russia descends into a multi-sided civil war that only ends in the 20's.
1. Is the above scenario realistic ?
2. What kind of peace treaty, if any, would the powers agree upon under such circumstances ?