NBC chooses Letterman

When Johnny Carson was set to retire in 1992, it set about a succession war between David Letterman and Jay Leno. Carson had his preference of Letterman who had guest hosted his show many times and TLS was the follow up to TNS so the line of succession should have been obvious. Instead NBC went with a less known Jay Leno whom they felt would represent a more generic and standard host to the eccentric Letterman whom they felt might turn off some of their older audience. Well let us suppose the execs had made the more natural selection of Letterman, which network does Leno end up in? And is the late night wars scaled down or even nonexistent without the presumption that Jay had stolen Letterman's job?
 
Actually, I believe that the late night wars could still exist. Keep in mind that since IYTL Letterman will be hosting the Tonight Show, it leaves the Late Show without a host for 93. I can't be entirely sure, but it might be plausible that CBS might be willing to be experimental with a then unknown like Jay Leno. I'm not sure though. What do you think?
 
This is way more complicated than implied above. If NBC picks Lettermen hugely popular Carson guest host Leno will be launching on CBS.

The Late Shift is everything to this conversation.
 
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IOTL Leno had the Tonight Show brand, and more importantly NBC's stronger lineup of programs before the Tonight Show. He is less formidable as a guy challenging the Tonight Show. He may not even be interested and may try to get a sitcom instead. Also both comedians would change their approach in this situation.
 
The water cooler talk at the time was that giving Letterman TNS would essentially be swapping the time slots of the two programs.
 
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So why did the mess happen?

This article by Jay Rosen will give you a quick summary. Although of course read Bill Carter’s book—and maybe even watch the decent HBO movie!—as well.
When, in the spring of 1991, NBC signed a secret contract with Mr. Leno making him the new host of the "Tonight" show, the network did not consider for a moment what Mr. Letterman's reaction might be. Nor did NBC consult with Mr. Carson, known to be one of the shrewdest minds in the business.
 
Actually, I believe that the late night wars could still exist. Keep in mind that since IYTL Letterman will be hosting the Tonight Show, it leaves the Late Show without a host for 93. I can't be entirely sure, but it might be plausible that CBS might be willing to be experimental with a then unknown like Jay Leno. I'm not sure though. What do you think?

Leno was known, he was the permanent guest host of the Tonight Show. However, he was not as well known as Letterman, and certainly not as revered by younger viewers that the networks pursue. What got the ball rolling on the entire late night shuffle was an offer Leno received from CBS in the late 1980s to start his show. Helen Kushnick, Leno's agent, leveraged that into a deal from NBC and she began a behind the scenes effort to push Carson out. Carson could have gone on as long as he wanted, but NBC executives were starting to notice (is there a word for preconcern?) that Carson's ratings, while rock solid, were graying and the average age of viewers were slipping into the 50s. I'll join everyone in praising the Late Shift by Bill Carter, it's a fantastic summary of the events and a really quick read.

I suspect that the Tonight Show would still be in first place if Letterman took over. Letterman's ratings decline coincided with a general decline in CBS' fortunes, including the loss of a ton of good affiliates and NFL football. Meanwhile, NBC had monster ratings multiple nights a week with Seinfeld, Friends, Fraiser, ER, ext. A lot of the Conan people always thought that a road cone could have snagged ratings victories over CBS at the Tonight show during the late 1990s.

CBS would probably snag Leno, and he'd run an almost identical show to the one he ran OTL at NBC. I don't know if he would create quite the franchise that Letterman did with the Late Show, just because Letterman had a massive amount of buzz when he took his show to CBS. Here's Letterman's first show on CBS, it looks like a straight up party atmosphere, loose, fun. We take a lot of the stuff he does now for granted, but even stuff like his graphics package is a decade ahead of what Leno was doing with the Tonight Show on NBC in 1992.

Other odd thing I don't think people realize, Leno was doing the Tonight Show for about a year with Letterman doing Late Night after him because Letterman was still under contract, so he had that chance to really connect viewers, and it just never really happened in 1992. Leno eventually grew into the role, has an unheard of work ethic, and excelled at his strongest trait-- the opening monologue. However, his first year of shows while Helen Kushnick was running things were really rough.
 
Another thing to keep in mind was that Letterman has lost the most important figure in the development of the show: his head writer and then-girlfriend—who he didn’t even mention on the Netflix Tina Fey episode—the fantastic Merrill Markoe. Feel free to note when exactly Letterman’s writers were winning Emmys, inventing groundbreaking bits, and you know actually funny… and draw your own conclusions.

Letterman routinely beat Leno in the ratings all the way to Hugh Grant, and then basically never won until Conan situation imploded. Does Leno get his Hugh Grant equivalent moment over on CBS? Does that perhaps not vault him into the lead but into a tie/close second for a while and Letterman keeps up his game longer? Note how far pared back late Letterman shows are compared to 1990s CBS and of course the 1980s. This higher standard of energy will be terrible on the crew because I guarantee Letterman forced to LA and more energy will be vastly worse to deal with, it may also push Letterman towards an earlier retirement?

Does Conan still make it as butterflies go wild? Who the heck follows Leno, it won’t be Sydner lol. How does Larry Sanders change?!? (These may well be questions I have deeply considered for my upcoming timeline…)
 
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