You want Nazi victory? These PoDs could do it.
1. Germany crushes the Dunkirk pocket. Over 300.000 casualties (either dead, missing or captured) lead to a vote of no confidence in Winston Churchill. Halifax becomes PM and gets off with a status quo ante bellum for Great Britain. German factories and cities aren't bombed, less troops in air defence roles, these are sent to the USSR when Operation Barbarossa kicks off in late May/early June. Because there is no bombing campaign, the German warmachine can also produce more weapons. Also, Germany can import whatever it wants since Britain is neutral and the RN is thus neutralized. Tungsten can be imported which means that Me-262s' engines will last much longer. German panzers can get tungsten core ammo. Moscow might or might not fall, depending on Stalin's decisions and whether or not Sorge's intel on Japan is not butterflied away. Eventually the USSR surrenders in 42-43, getting a border running from Leningrad to Astrakhan. Voila, a Greater German Reich victorious. Without Britain in the fight, America is unlikely to become involved in Europe. America can only bomb from bases in Iceland and can't liberate Europe without a decent base of operations, i.e. Britain. War won't end until A-bombs fall in '45 and Congress won't DoW Germany in such a scenario, regardless of what FDR wants; the cost is too high for too little gain.
2. Hitler, after hearing about the Japanese sneak attack on Pearl Harbor, becomes infuriated. Guessing that Japan won't help him against the Soviets now, he makes a speech condemning the sneak attack, ranting about Japanese inferiority and stating that Germany, as a good Aryan brother nation, will do anything short of declaring war on Japan to help. Also, Hitler expresses his deepest sympathy with the families of perished American sailors, leading to him becoming Times Man Of the Year or something. Congress and the public will start to question what the hell American ships are doing fighting the Germans in the Atlantic. FDR can't politically afford to keep up his private shadow war, although crushing the Nazis would be better for American markets but the average American sadly is not an economist. Lend-Lease goes down to the bare minimum (mostly money) and L-L to the USSR stops entirely. With Britain in the war, troops are committed to Africa and the Africa corps still exists. The British can defeat them since Hitler paid little attention to Africa historically and won't do so ITTL. An invasion of the European mainland is likely to be rebuffed since Britain alone can't achieve the air supremacy needed for an invasion. The Soviets make some sort of Brest-Litovsk V2.0 deal or worse in 1943. The Tory government gets a backlash and Labour wins a landslide-victory in the next elections.
You can run with either of these as far as I'm concerned. These are the PoDs I see. A PoD in the Pacific is out of the question. A war between Japan and the US was inevitable at that point. Japan perceived America as aggressive and FDR is likely to stage an incident if Japan attempts to bypass American territory go for the DEI directly and Japan has to conquer the DEI to avoid economic strangulation (through the American embargo)or leave China (accept for Manchuria perhaps) which is unacceptable for the militarists. The Philippines are right in the middle of their freakin' supply lines so Japan will attack. With the first PoD there will be no Taranto raid which could be interesting... Japan'll go for the 'Annihilation Battle' instead, involving Japanese carriers ambushing the Pacific fleet in the Philippines, sinking the BBs in deep water so they can't be salvaged.
In both scenarios the US and the UK can focus on the Pacific. Nukes might not be used on Japan, creating less awareness of their destructive power. I could see Japan surrender by winter 44/45, depending on how well they do.