Nazis win, who succeeds Hitler?

RousseauX

Donor
With a PoD ending the war in 1941 or soon thereafter the SS will only be a fraction of what we saw in OTL late WWII and they would mainly be seen as an operetta army casted with psycopats. I could imagine another "Long knives night", but this time taking out the SS. Göring is the most likely to take over after Hitler as he has not only the nazi party legitemacy but also the best chances to create an alliance with the Wehrmacht (Heer, Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine) and the old establishment of Germany.

I don't think his drug abuse would be a major problem. As long as you have regular access to the drugs (IIRC mainly morphine) you will do fine. Probably better than if you had an alcohol problem.

Creating a stable Great German society and a prosperous economy is another matter however. In short the indigenous and entrepreneurish German culture will be in serious danger of being corrupted by the "temptations" following a slave economy and master race bullshit - the Germans will end up looking like Hermann! :eek:
OTOH there's absolutely no reason to expect conservative elements of German society (the army) to win over the revolutionary ones (the SS) since the Nazi revolution will have essentially fulfilled all its promises.

What I'm saying is that in a knife fight between the heer and the SS there's a very good chance the SS wins.
 

RousseauX

Donor
What about relatively obscure figures like Baldur von Schirach or some bureaucrat which we never heard off? After all, who knew of Nikita Khruschchev in 1940 or Leonid Brezhnev in 1956?
Khrushchev was a member of Stalin's inner circle since the 1930s and Brezhnev was one of Khrushchev's chief proteges in 1956

the guy who gets in power immediately after Hitler is gonna be an immediate member of the wartime Hitler inner circle
 

Redbeard

Banned
OTOH there's absolutely no reason to expect conservative elements of German society (the army) to win over the revolutionary ones (the SS) since the Nazi revolution will have essentially fulfilled all its promises.

What I'm saying is that in a knife fight between the heer and the SS there's a very good chance the SS wins.
It is?

Even in 1944 the Heer by a huge factor outnumbered the SS. I understand this ATL is late 1941-early 1942, at that time the Waffen SS would be a handful of Divisions - the Heer had something like 200! By that time the SS units were not that much better, if at all, than the Heer units. That only came later, when SS always got first in manpower and equipment. Even as late as July 1944 I will claim that the SS wouldn't have been able to defeat the Heer - if it had come to confrontation after a successful attempt on Hitler.
 

RousseauX

Donor
It is?

Even in 1944 the Heer by a huge factor outnumbered the SS. I understand this ATL is late 1941-early 1942, at that time the Waffen SS would be a handful of Divisions - the Heer had something like 200! By that time the SS units were not that much better, if at all, than the Heer units. That only came later, when SS always got first in manpower and equipment. Even as late as July 1944 I will claim that the SS wouldn't have been able to defeat the Heer - if it had come to confrontation after a successful attempt on Hitler.
it doesn't matter it won't be a heer vs waffen SS shooting civil war it's going to be a political knife fight except the SS is unified, has a clear leader and better at playing politics.

The army will be nazified and may or may not figure out if they want to head the Nazi state/even if they do there's prob like 10 generals from 5 different factions all wanting to do it and any number of which might cut a deal with Himmler or Bormann. Coup by committee against a unified, determined opponent doesn't work.
 

RousseauX

Donor
It also might be different if the Wehrmacht wasn't identified as such a clear threat to Nazi power from the very beginning and confusing chains of command (i.e OkW vs OKH) and putting in reliably Nazi generals in the right positions.y
 
it doesn't matter it won't be a heer vs waffen SS shooting civil war it's going to be a political knife fight except the SS is unified, has a clear leader and better at playing politics.

The army will be nazified and may or may not figure out if they want to head the Nazi state/even if they do there's prob like 10 generals from 5 different factions all wanting to do it and any number of which might cut a deal with Himmler or Bormann. Coup by committee against a unified, determined opponent doesn't work.
Fortunate the army Junta would hardly be facing a unified, determined opponent once Hitler starts drooling in his wheelchair.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Fortunate the army Junta would hardly be facing a unified, determined opponent once Hitler starts drooling in his wheelchair.
there's not going to be a junta

the main reason being that the army is going to be heavily divided against itself, any potential junta has to win enough political knife fights within the army AND stop too many rivals from defecting to one of the other factions in the political struggle outside of the army because he got promised defense minister or chief of staff or something in the new government.

basically the army has to have a high degree of institutional unity to seize power, the problem is that I dont' see the Nazis allowing them that degree of unity if they win the war (they didn't allow them a lot of unity -during- the war)

The other problem is basically does the army even want to head the state? I mean the generals were nazified otl and they are gonna be even more nazified in a fatherland scenario, Nazi Germany was never built as a military dictatorship in the same way that Egypt was under Mubarak. The analogue for them is really the Communist party in the east bloc. The army might want more spending from whoever they back but it's quite another thing for them to seize power entirely. There wouldn't be much legitimacy to it.

you are right that the party might be divided after hitler dies but the SS will be unified under Himmler
 
Hitler’s health can deteriorate slowly or quickly, either way Borman and Goebbels will isolate him and keep everybody guessing. They control the party apparatus and media and while neither will be king, they may play kingmakers.

So the players in the field are:

Team Wehrmacht, Manstein as team captain
Team Luftwaffe, Goering as team captain
Team Waffen-SS, Hausser as team captain
Team RSHA, Heydrich as team captain

Heydrich and Hausser will dispatch Himmler to a secure location (6 feet under) as soon as possible. Wehrmacht despises Waffen-SS and tag-teams with Goerings Luftwaffe, this leaves SS to team up with RSHA. So I'm calling either Heydrich with the support of Hausser, Borman and Goebbels or Goering with the support of Manstein, Borman and Goebbels.

Either way the nominal Führer will be less powerfull than Hitler.
 
So, who do you think would win a power struggle in a victorious Nazi Germany after Hitler bites the dust and why?
If you're referring to the post above yours, he answered that.
So I'm calling either Heydrich with the support of Hausser, Borman and Goebbels or Goering with the support of Manstein, Borman and Goebbels.
 

Redbeard

Banned
it doesn't matter it won't be a heer vs waffen SS shooting civil war it's going to be a political knife fight except the SS is unified, has a clear leader and better at playing politics.

The army will be nazified and may or may not figure out if they want to head the Nazi state/even if they do there's prob like 10 generals from 5 different factions all wanting to do it and any number of which might cut a deal with Himmler or Bormann. Coup by committee against a unified, determined opponent doesn't work.

I replied to a claim of the SS winning a civil was vs. the Heer.

But anyway I don't think the persons behind the 20th of July attempt counted on a civil war either, but rather on swiftly taking control of the command structure in the confusion after Hitler's death. The "Home Army" ie. mainly units not fully trained, but enough being present near Berlin, was thought of as the main instrument.

Had Hitler actually died I very much doubt if the SS would have stood up unified against the "coup-makers" and their support in the Heer - not at least because the Heer still was so much bigger - around Berlin and at the front where most SS units were, and SS knew the hate towards them from the Heer was very close under the surface.
 

RousseauX

Donor
I replied to a claim of the SS winning a civil was vs. the Heer.

But anyway I don't think the persons behind the 20th of July attempt counted on a civil war either, but rather on swiftly taking control of the command structure in the confusion after Hitler's death. The "Home Army" ie. mainly units not fully trained, but enough being present near Berlin, was thought of as the main instrument.
Someone did a really good Valkyrie TL and I agree with his conclusion, a July 20th coup will lead to a fractured state with the most likely army leader to take control not Beck but someone like Guderian who has the prestige and right army units at the right place. Beck et el definitely ends up getting shot no matter who wins.
Had Hitler actually died I very much doubt if the SS would have stood up unified against the "coup-makers" and their support in the Heer - not at least because the Heer still was so much bigger - around Berlin and at the front where most SS units were, and SS knew the hate towards them from the Heer was very close under the surface.
Was it actually though? I mean we are getting most of this from post-war memoirs of German Generals who fell over themselves claiming that they really really really hated the SS and it's all the SS's fault. Did they actually hate the SS as much as they claimed?

Because you can hardly claim otherwise and remain reputable post-1945.
 

Redbeard

Banned
Someone did a really good Valkyrie TL and I agree with his conclusion, a July 20th coup will lead to a fractured state with the most likely army leader to take control not Beck but someone like Guderian who has the prestige and right army units at the right place. Beck et el definitely ends up getting shot no matter who wins. Was it actually though? I mean we are getting most of this from post-war memoirs of German Generals who fell over themselves claiming that they really really really hated the SS and it's all the SS's fault. Did they actually hate the SS as much as they claimed?

Because you can hardly claim otherwise and remain reputable post-1945.

There sure is a factor as you mention, but I'm still quite sure the SS wasn't very popular in the Heer. How could they be, when SS allways got the Lion's share and Hitler obviously didn't trust the Heer and its "old Family" generals. Hitler taking personal control of the armed forces in 1941 was a great humiliation and the following defeats of course were utilised max to say" Look how bad it all went with that plebian at the helm!" That of course isn't a proof of them necessarily doing better (I think they would), but it illustrates the discontent.
 
One of the reasons the SA had to be cut off at the knees early on during the Nazizeit was that the SA was trying to "take over" the military role and Hitler needed to make sure the army was with him. With the SS/Heer struggle later on Hitler felt secure, and now was looking to solidify his position by ensuring ideological purity and loyalty of military forces. The scenario in CalBear's T/L where the SS, in particular the Waffen SS, have taken over the military especially ground forces, is what would most likely happen.
 
Hitler’s health can deteriorate slowly or quickly, either way Borman and Goebbels will isolate him and keep everybody guessing. They control the party apparatus and media and while neither will be king, they may play kingmakers.

So the players in the field are:

Team Wehrmacht, Manstein as team captain
Team Luftwaffe, Goering as team captain
Team Waffen-SS, Hausser as team captain
Team RSHA, Heydrich as team captain

Heydrich and Hausser will dispatch Himmler to a secure location (6 feet under) as soon as possible. Wehrmacht despises Waffen-SS and tag-teams with Goerings Luftwaffe, this leaves SS to team up with RSHA. So I'm calling either Heydrich with the support of Hausser, Borman and Goebbels or Goering with the support of Manstein, Borman and Goebbels.

Either way the nominal Führer will be less powerfull than Hitler.
Goering is more likely to die than Himmler, due to his unhealthy lifestyle. Himmler is smarter than you think and would probably find out if Heydrich and Hausser were rebelling against him. Himmler has the loyalty of the entire S.S., including the Waffen-SS.
 
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