nazis lose in fall of 1939

I accept that this is unlikely, but arguably less so than otl.

After the destruction of Czechoslovakia France and Britain plan to properly defend Poland.

During the night of September 1-2 RAF arrives on French air base

6am September 3rd, when ultimatums run out, All Nazi air bases within 150 miles of France get hit

Aggressive Saar Campaign goes on with full air support.

Nazis try to pull forces back from Poland but are not in time.


1) Does Stalin still invade Poland?

2) What happens to Germany and Austria?
 
1) Stalin probably wouldn't risk Poland, he's seen that France and Britain are willing to defend it, and at this point are on a warpath and he lacks the military strength to take them on. The last Soviet military expedition into Poland ended poorly for the Red Army. He's likely to focus on the Baltic States, maybe threaten for the Winter War, or Romania. He might also come to an accord with Japan for the Northern Warlord States.

2) In the Eyes of the British and France, Germany has proven to be irredeemable as a Nation-State so they divide it. Austria becomes un-Anschlussed, and Germany is divided into Bavaria in the South, Saxony in the North-East and Bremen/Westphalia in the North-West. France annexes the Rhineland for war reparations, for this war and unpaid Versailles debt.
Poland gets OstPrussia and Konigsberg. Britain and France might hold a referendum in Czechoslovakia to see if they should remain a united nation, because there is already tension there.

This is what else might happen:
Britain and France might take the roles of World Police instead of US, whose sphere of influence would be reduced due to not going to war.

Italy would focus on the Balkans, which might provoke a response from Britain and France. Italy is unlikely to Push, having seen what happened to Germany.

Japan wouldn't go to war with Russia, they didn't do much with them OTL, but without a Western War in Russia they are unlikely to risk it. They'll focus on China and continental Asia. They're also unlikely to go for French and British colonial possessions, as again they've seen what happens to Germany. They might still try for the Dutch East Indies, depending on how close the Netherlands are to Britain and France. Uncertain if Japan would go to war with America by itself, would at least finish in China before attempting further adventures.

Decolonisation in Britain and France is unlikely to happen, as they are neither crippled economically or have suffered from the loss of power and prestige from a longer war. The fact they crushed Germany quickly makes them seem even more invincible.

There could be 2 separate Cold Wars: Western Europe with Britain and France at the Helm vs the Soviets, and a Pacific Cold War with Japan and US.
 
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