Nazi Victory at El Alamein

British control of Egypt is preserved when Rommel is forced to turn due west and respond to Operation TORCH.
 

Tellus

Banned
Rommel would need to score a few more straight victories at Alexandria, Cairo and then on the shores of Suez to do anything meaningful; best case scenario for him this late would be to temporarily cut access to Suez, and then sabotage the channel on his way out, causing months of delay for British shipping. But then, Torch would happen, forcing him to fight on two fronts, and almost certainly meaning the loss of Egypt. It can only delay the inevitable on this theater.

OTOH, an early victory in North Africa, back in late 1940/early 41, would have tremendous consequences. The loss of Suez before the USA join the war could likely knock the British out of the war; or at the very least Churchill's government. It would also make British east-asian possessions much more vulnerable to Japan.
 

mowque

Banned
Wasn't Rommel outnumbered by a HUGE amount? This will only get worse the farther he goes. The odds against him will only get longer, and we might even be in worse shape to counter Torch.
 
Rommel would need to score a few more straight victories at Alexandria, Cairo and then on the shores of Suez to do anything meaningful; best case scenario for him this late would be to temporarily cut access to Suez, and then sabotage the channel on his way out, causing months of delay for British shipping. But then, Torch would happen, forcing him to fight on two fronts, and almost certainly meaning the loss of Egypt. It can only delay the inevitable on this theater.

OTOH, an early victory in North Africa, back in late 1940/early 41, would have tremendous consequences. The loss of Suez before the USA join the war could likely knock the British out of the war; or at the very least Churchill's government. It would also make British east-asian possessions much more vulnerable to Japan.

It would seem that you are unaware that for the whole war, in OTL, i.e. the timeline where the British won, the traffic between Britain and its Far East possessions always went round the Cape and not through Suez.
Even the supplies for Egypt went that way, save for a number of ships that can be counted on the fingers, and which mostly ran the Med gauntlet because they had to stop in Malta too.
 
And just how is Rommel going to acheiev this victory?
The reason El Alamain is where the British fought is that its a bottleneck in the desert - its impassible to the south, so you have to go through it, you cant do any fancy manouver stuff.
Now the British outnumbered Rommel around 2-3:1, were sitting in prepared defences, close to their lines of supply.
Rommel is out at the end of his, so even if we assume he has unlimited troops available, just how is he provisioning them?
Should be in the ASB section...
 
And just how is Rommel going to acheiev this victory?
The reason El Alamain is where the British fought is that its a bottleneck in the desert - its impassible to the south, so you have to go through it, you cant do any fancy manouver stuff.
Now the British outnumbered Rommel around 2-3:1, were sitting in prepared defences, close to their lines of supply.
Rommel is out at the end of his, so even if we assume he has unlimited troops available, just how is he provisioning them?
Should be in the ASB section...

More like the noob section.
 
And just how is Rommel going to acheiev this victory?
The reason El Alamain is where the British fought is that its a bottleneck in the desert - its impassible to the south, so you have to go through it, you cant do any fancy manouver stuff.
Now the British outnumbered Rommel around 2-3:1, were sitting in prepared defences, close to their lines of supply.
Rommel is out at the end of his, so even if we assume he has unlimited troops available, just how is he provisioning them?
Should be in the ASB section...
mhm, that the british outnumbered the germans made it most likely that they won but remember it is not unheard and unseen in history that a army which was seen as inferior suprisingly won a battle.
 
Should be in the ASB section...
More like the noob section.

I disagree somewhat.

On June 30, 1942, the German vanguards reached the El Alamein line. On that day, these armored units were _farther East_ than the retreating remnants of the British armoured brigades, and the Germans were astride the road.

But the Axis recon failed to assess this situation. Anyway, their vanguards were exhausted and depleted. The Italians, with their poorer equipment, were lagging behind.

On the other hand, the British armor was in not much better a shape, though it counted more tanks.

What if Rommel had known that he had an opportunity of attacking South, hitting the withdrawing British armored units away from the fortified line close by? I think he would have gone for that.

Such a battle in the open, with the German tanks maneuvering to cut the retreat of the British ones, might have easily been an Axis victory. A delay of even a few hours would have meant that the Italian Ariete Division, which was arriving from the West exactly in that position, might have hit the British from behind. The outcome might well have been very heavy losses for the British armor still in the field.

In turn, the subsequent Axis attempts at piercing the line were stymied, in large part, because of combined British counterattacks. They were beginning to learn and they used infantry in fortified positions, infantry counterattacks, and armored counterattacks. The point being that the British armor, which had managed to gain the protection of the line by just a few hours, was essential in this situation. Without that armor, the Axis might have pushed through (even though in very bad shape).

Where I agree is that even a victory here would not have changed the overall outcome of the campaign a lot. A couple more large battles would have followed at the gates of the Nile valley. Here there aren't the bottlenecks of El Alamein, and the other minuses for the British would be that they would by now be really panicking, and the Arab unrest. But OTOH, the Axis logistical position would have been even worse, and the British would be fielding more of everything, as well as better of everything. I don't see another miracle here.

This is all without even considering Torch.
 
I think you sorta answered your own question, Michelle. Rommels forward units were exhausted, depleted, and pretty much out of everything - basically worn out (for a while).
Armies are people, not machines, there are limits as to how far and fast you can drive them - further when they are winning, but even so limits. After you reach those limits, you just have to stop and recover. So an immediate strike South just wasnt an option, and it would have had to be immediate, because the British can recover faster than Rommel (they are sitting on a LOS at the end of a railway close to Alexandria, not at the end of a 1000m or so of lorries).
 
I think you sorta answered your own question, Michelle. Rommels forward units were exhausted, depleted, and pretty much out of everything - basically worn out (for a while).
Armies are people, not machines, there are limits as to how far and fast you can drive them - further when they are winning, but even so limits. After you reach those limits, you just have to stop and recover. So an immediate strike South just wasnt an option, and it would have had to be immediate, because the British can recover faster than Rommel (they are sitting on a LOS at the end of a railway close to Alexandria, not at the end of a 1000m or so of lorries).

In OTL, however, that very force did strike. No more than a few hours later. And instead of to the South, to the East, straight into an established fortified line.

Had they stopped for a week, I'd accept that the immediate strike just wasn't an option. But they stopped a few hours. They were not even out of fuel. The Ariete, meanwhile, kept moving all that day long.
We are not talking about a huge difference here.
 
The Yanks claim to have won yet again

Which battle? The second one would have been less crucial as it was an allied counter attack and by that time the German advance might have been held up for long enough for the Americans to be able to launch an attack from the West having landed in French North Africa. There would have been an earlier assualt on the Kasserein Pass. Rommel would have problems facing an enemy on two fronts. It has even been argued that the Second battle was unnecessary and done to impress the Americans.
The Americans would have claimed to have saved the day and Montgomery would be regarded in a less favourable light.

A victory in the forst battle would have had more serious repercussions and Rommel might have reached Cairo. Churchill's government would face opposition as it would have been mmore serious than Tobruk. The war would have been prolonged with the Red Army advancing further into Europe
 
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