Nazi-Soviet and Sino-Japanese Wars instead of WWII: who would win?

Regarding the Sino-Japanese war: what was the birth rate vs. death rate in China in, say, 1940? I know that estimates vary widely, but say 10,000,000 Chinese died as a result of the war IOTL (not the highest estimate, BTW). That's about 2% of the Chinese population in less than a decade. Was the Chinese population even still growing?

Might, at some point, the Japanese have simply killed all the Chinese who were willing to resist? Obviously they can nowhere near that IOTL, but absent any Western aid and with no Pacific War to drain resources, not to mention the ability to continue the war beyond 1945, might it be possible?
 
Regarding the Sino-Japanese war: what was the birth rate vs. death rate in China in, say, 1940? I know that estimates vary widely, but say 10,000,000 Chinese died as a result of the war IOTL (not the highest estimate, BTW). That's about 2% of the Chinese population in less than a decade. Was the Chinese population even still growing?

Might, at some point, the Japanese have simply killed all the Chinese who were willing to resist? Obviously they can nowhere near that IOTL, but absent any Western aid and with no Pacific War to drain resources, not to mention the ability to continue the war beyond 1945, might it be possible?

They did largely try to do that, the problem with policies like that (and it's happened in Chinese history even) is that you eventually create a huge resistance of people who have literally nothing left to lose from resistance, since if you try and not resist you'll just be massacred anyway to be held up as an example to be afraid of the Japanese.
 
They did largely try to do that, the problem with policies like that (and it's happened in Chinese history even) is that you eventually create a huge resistance of people who have literally nothing left to lose from resistance, since if you try and not resist you'll just be massacred anyway to be held up as an example to be afraid of the Japanese.

True, though how well can they resist without arms? AFAIK even the Nationalist army was short on small arms, using pretty much whatever they could find. Absent Western support, how much can they do? Poorly organized troops with spears and arrows against breach-loading magazine rifles are a losing proposition. Sure, they can take a few Japanese with them, but they're going to fare even worse than the Japanese "Banzai" charges against the USMC.

Even guerrillas need something to fight with.
 
The old Lend Lease argument here is irrelevant, the situation here is very different from the eastern front situation in WW2. Considering this, the Soviets have a clear advantage.
 
True, though how well can they resist without arms? AFAIK even the Nationalist army was short on small arms, using pretty much whatever they could find. Absent Western support, how much can they do? Poorly organized troops with spears and arrows against breach-loading magazine rifles are a losing proposition. Sure, they can take a few Japanese with them, but they're going to fare even worse than the Japanese "Banzai" charges against the USMC.

Even guerrillas need something to fight with.

And they will get something, China's a huge damn country, there are plenty of ways to get arms and the Japanese could never control all of them, that's the way the arms market has worked and always will, when there's a will (and money) there's a way

And if all else fails, the occupation will become so costly for Japan in terms of lives and resources that they'll have to pull out eventually.

Also Banzai charges were motivated by poor supplies as Japanese troops were in a siege warfare situation as the besieged.
 
And they will get something, China's a huge damn country, there are plenty of ways to get arms and the Japanese could never control all of them, that's the way the arms market has worked and always will, when there's a will (and money) there's a way

And where do the Chinese get money?

Also Banzai charges were motivated by poor supplies as Japanese troops were in a siege warfare situation as the besieged.

They were also used in the war in China (and usually worked there) and in the CBI theater early in the war (and sometimes worked there).
 
And where do the Chinese get money?



They were also used in the war in China (and usually worked there) and in the CBI theater early in the war (and sometimes worked there).

Rule over various provinces, raiding from the Japanese and/or other provinces.

Of course why the West won't provide them with a good deal of arms for free to keep them running against Japan is another question.
 
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