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In September 1942 Wilhelm Ritter von Thoma was transferred to the Afrika Korps to take part in the Second Battle of El Alamein in October 1942. As a result of Rommel losing the first and second battles, Thoma was captured on 4 November 1942 and put in a POW camp in the United Kingdom. Whilst inside he was under surveillance by MI6 and during this time he told Ludwig Crüwell that the Germans were designing, researching and testing rockets at the Peenemünde Army Research Center in Peenemünde, Germany. (He knew of this because he visited himself) The British then sent a recconassanice mission to take photos, to which Operation Hydra was implemented thereafter. This severely delayed the progress of the project, however, the British deemed it a failure.

Thoma was caught on 4 November 1942, Operation Hydra was conducted on 17/18 August 1943 and the Nazi's had produced 1900 V2s up to 15th September 1944. But "A production line was nearly ready at Peenemünde when the Operation Hydra attack caused the Germans to move production to the underground Mittelwerk in the Kohnstein where 5,200 V-2 rockets were built with the use of forced labour."

Therefore if a production line was nearly ready in August 1943 then by December or January 1944 full operational production is realistic. (maybe even sooner) That is at least a nine-month difference between the production facility being bombed and not being bombed.

The really big interesting question is if Rommel had won either the 1st or 2nd battle of Alamein how would Nazi research into secret weapons pan out differently. This includes but is certainly not inclusive to the following:
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggregat_(rocket_family)
  • Wasserfall missile - scaled down version of the V2 - It's designer, Dr Walter Thiel was killed in Operation Hydra bombing.
  • Enzian missile
  • Air to surface missiles: Fritz-X, Hs 293, Hs 294
  • Nuclear weapons (obviously)
It must be noted that because of the bombing it damaged the progress of the project, therefore if Thorma had never been caught where would the project be in August 1944, because by that time the Germans would be using the V2 as a mandatory weapon in firing hundreds of V2 rockets at the Soviets, and the British. Resulting in Peenemünde Army Research Center going underground before it is bombed.

It must be taken into account where the war will be at that moment in time as well. If Rommel had won either first or second battle of Alamein, then he has conquered Egypt, gaining full control of his own Panzer army being resupplied via Greece, (without anyone else's input, the Italians had some say in North African Strategy and tactics which irritated him) driven across the Suez canal, into Palestine and Jordan and swept through Syria and Iraq to refuel in the Southern Caucasus. The possibility of Turkey coming into the war and D-day is up for question, but one presumes that nothing will happen differently on the Eastern Front because of Hitler. Retrospectively it all depends on how Rommel can get to the Southern Caucasus but in conclusion, the end to WWII is some way off.
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