Nazi Germany vs. a non-Soviet Russia

The Vulture

Banned
If we handwave the Nazis into existence, I don't know if they'd want to invade what is probably an autocratic right-wing country. Supposing Hitler invades purely out of anti-Slavic sentiment, I actually think Russia could rally more people to their defense (France, Britain, Yugoslavia) than if they were Communist.
 
If we handwave the Nazis into existence, I don't know if they'd want to invade what is probably an autocratic right-wing country. Supposing Hitler invades purely out of anti-Slavic sentiment, I actually think Russia could rally more people to their defense (France, Britain, Yugoslavia) than if they were Communist.

If Nazi-Soviet relations tell us one thing, it's that people will always compromise their ideology if that's what it takes to fulfil their diplomatic goals. Who Russia's allies are depends primarily on diplomacy (which is very much a function of the alternate RDC outcome and the nature of the Russian regime, true) and secondly on ideology.
 

mowque

Banned
I would see France continue to try and use Russia as a counter-weight towards Germany, as they did historically.
 
I would see France continue to try and use Russia as a counter-weight towards Germany, as they did historically.

And indeed, they made tentative attempts to return to the policy after the rise of Nazism, acting as midwife to the early-mid 30s warming between the Soviets and the cordon sanitaire.

This does depend on White Russia having some credibility as an ally, though. If it falls into outright warlordism in 1919, France may continue to back Poland to the hilt as the only actually effective check on Germany in the east.
 

mowque

Banned
And indeed, they made tentative attempts to return to the policy after the rise of Nazism, acting as midwife to the early-mid 30s warming between the Soviets and the cordon sanitaire.

This does depend on White Russia having some credibility as an ally, though. If it falls into outright warlordism in 1919, France may continue to back Poland to the hilt as the only actually effective check on Germany in the east.

True, but Poland is one thing. Russia would be a much better friend. But I suppose a very weak Russia might not allow that.

Would the 'Little Entente" idea come here, even stronger? Not being undermined by a USSR like nation?

(I admit, I have some ideas for this in my TL)
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Since all of our speculation is so limited by us being unsure as to what sort of regime this White Russia is, let's set up a scenario and go from there.

I'll start with my favorite "White Victory" scenario:

Denikin wins the Battle of Oryol in October of 1919 and advances on Moscow. The Bolshies pull back the reinforcements they sent to relieve Petrograd and that city falls to Yudenich later that month. Moscow then falls to the Whites a bit later.

At this point, the top White leaders are Denikin, Yudenich, Wrangel, and Kolchak, all of who have (to varying degrees) both monarchist and reformist sympathies. They run the country as a junta until mid-late 1920 when they elect Grand Duke Nicholas as Tsar since the country needs a popular figurehead to unite around. Nicholas III is a relatively powerless constitutional monarch, something made clear from day one.

A Duma is set up, Wrangel or Milyukov is chosen as PM, and chances are we have sort of Weimar-like situation evolve with a chaotic political scene and the army (probably headed by Denikin) ready to step in if things get too out of hand.

Aaaaand....

GO!
 
Ukraine might be independent and that would be a game changer in it self.

If Russia goes to pieces after White "victory", there may not be a coherent force to stop the Poles, with what was left of the Directorate's army bobbing along in their swell, from continuing past Kiev and linking up with French troops on the Black Sea. How "independent" such a regime would in fact be from Poland and France is an interesting question, of course.

If there's any coherent White government in a position to receive French backing, the idea of independent Ukraine vanished in a puff.
 
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Dialga

Banned
Depends yet again. Would an independent Ukraine be more likely to join the Axis or the Allies?
 
Depends yet again. Would an independent Ukraine be more likely to join the Axis or the Allies?

That's too assume that an "axis" and "allies" exist. They don't have to, not in the same sense, even with Soviet Russia and Nazi Germany both stull happening: if everyone had screwed up enough over Finland, we might have had us a three-sided war even in 1939.

With Russia sufficiently neutered to lose control of Ukraine, diplomacy is going to change drastically. Why does there even have to be a war?
 

Dialga

Banned
That's too assume that an "axis" and "allies" exist. They don't have to, not in the same sense, even with Soviet Russia and Nazi Germany both stull happening: if everyone had screwed up enough over Finland, we might have had us a three-sided war even in 1939.

So who'd be the third side? Russia, Ukraine, Finland?

With Russia sufficiently neutered to lose control of Ukraine, diplomacy is going to change drastically. Why does there even have to be a war?

Why would you say that? Mother Russia IOTL today isn't as big as she used to be, but is still a major power.
 
So who'd be the third side? Russia, Ukraine, Finland?

I referred to th prospect of a Nazi-Soviet-Entente in OTL.

Why would you say that? Mother Russia IOTL today isn't as big as she used to be, but is still a major power.

Russia is a major power today in a nuclear age but in her present borders she couldn't have faced the German army of 1941.

And even if Russia has Ukraine (likely), that doesn't mean there has to be a war. Russians are capable of not starting wars, surprising as it may seem.
 
Russia is a major power today in a nuclear age but in her present borders she couldn't have faced the German army of 1941.
.

OTOH, things would probably be different enough that this theoretical shrunken Russia (which seems astronomically unlikely: unless Russia itself fragments, they are at least going to claw back a good chunk of Central Asia) that the Germans _aren't_ going to have the army of 1941, which required the German conquest and exploitation of most of continental Europe between Russia and Spain, plus plentiful supplies of cheap raw materials from the USSR.

Bruce
 
OTOH, things would probably be different enough that this theoretical shrunken Russia (which seems astronomically unlikely: unless Russia itself fragments, they are at least going to claw back a good chunk of Central Asia) that the Germans _aren't_ going to have the army of 1941, which required the German conquest and exploitation of most of continental Europe between Russia and Spain, plus plentiful supplies of cheap raw materials from the USSR.

Bruce

Of course, which is my point exactly: all hypotheticals need to be explored individually. We can't generalise the circumstances of one time and place to all of them.
 
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