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I was reading Operation Unicorn, about a German invasion of Ireland during WW1, and started thinking, what about during WW2. The Midlands of Ireland is perfect country for a Battle of France type attack.

What effects would there be if in 1941 Nazi Germany, abandoning SeaLion changes focus to invade the Republic of Ireland?

If Germany gets even partial success (say the South and West as far as Limerick), you've got a potential German commerce raiders and U-Boats to base themselves in Cobh, or Limerick and increase the threat to British shipping to the West.

Assuming a more North-Eastern strike, you've got the possibility for airbases threatening the British industrial midlands.

If the entire island is occupied, you've got Britain surrounded on 3 sides (France, Norway, and Ireland), with sea-lanes only open to the extreme North (even then threatened by UBoats based in Norway and Northern Ireland). You've also got the western British seaboard (which was AFAIK relatively unharmed in OTL) open to attack from airbases in Ireland.

On the other hand, I'd say the occupying force would have a relatively hard time of it from an underground movement, the Irish being still experienced in resistence/guerilla warfare from the War of Independence.

I'd also imagine this may increase American antagonism. Possibly even to a point where they may declare war. My reasoning here is firstly, you've a romantic view of Ireland within the US, and secondly, it's an invasion of another neutral country (this time with historical links to the US).

AFAIK, there was an agreement in place between DeValera and Churchill for the British forces NOT to respond for at least 2/3 days after a German invasion.

Realistically, I'd see the initial invasion being a cakewalk for the Germans, with resistance increasing as they approach Dublin (possibly around Limerick too) and as the British get involved. Possibly a high-tide mark of Dublin-Athlone-Sligo, all being easily supplied from Northern Ireland/UK.

Also, if the invasion failed, which is also likely, as the Germans were relying on barges to transport the invasion force, and it's a lot further from France to Ireland then Holland/Belgium to UK. Ireland would have entered the war on the UK's side by default. While the actual impact would not have been significant (possibly even lowering the strength on the British army, as the not insignificant amounts of Irish that fought in the British army in OTL would presumably join the republic's army TTL), I'd imagine it would give a boost to UK morale not to be 'standing alone' in Europe.

You'd also get the potential to move some war mainland UK production to Ireland, further away from air attack.

What do you guys think?
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