Nazi Germany had oil supply?

In between the flaming, have you been told for what (IMO rather questionable) reason Germany would have been unable to produce more coal?
I'm sorry, I gave you incorrect information. It wasn't bat shit, it was unicorn poop. See below.
You know, we really should make people read Tooze before they write this stuff. twice. And pass a test on it...:mad:

90 million barrels...from WHAT, Unicorn poop?
@Astrodragon did say why Germany was unable to produce more coal, but as I can't remember the substance of the answer, I suggest that you ask him.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
One ton of synthetic oil requires several tons of coal that could otherwise have been used for something else.
Well, yes, but as I pointed to with the link in my previous post :
- not the 'amount' of coal was the problem, as the germans produced it even IOTL in excess of consumption, even without the 5-times higher possible output of the east-elbian brwon coal fields (the GDR produced up to 300 mill tons a year)
- it was the lack of processing plants IOTL ...​

Therefore IMHO in an ATL there's quite some room for improvements aka higher synthetic fuel production.

... and about the 'answer' you got in 2015 by Astrodragon ...
Well in this post following the one cited by you he talks about a 'lack of coal' :neutral: ... see also my post above.

Other than that he simply invokes the 'Great Tooze' like a kind of "vade retro" without actually arguing.
Aside of my general opinion of Tooze' book one should not forget that he embarks on a (highly tainted) description of OTL. Here we are talking of ATL.

The Germans didn't consider shipping Lignite more than a couple miles from extration point to end user to be worthwhile, so they would build powerplants or whatnot close to the fields, rather than to ship the stuff a long ways away.
You're absolutly right.

Redargless what "worth" you asign to a certain commodity :
it is always more economical to process a resource on the spot (or nearby at least) than transporting it.
... quite what the germans did with i.e. the synthetic fuel plant they set up in Litvínov to exploit the northern bohemian lignite fields.
 
Looking at these tables here, its obvious that at least regarding brown coal Natzi Germany had just "tapped" the East Elbian brown coal reserves compared to what the GDR get out of the soil in the post-war era alone.
Also the bohemian and moravian lignite fields were and stayed "underused" compared to the postwar era.

Why they didn't exploited them ... atm not much of a clue, but that they didn't do it IOTL does NOT mean they would not have could.
But ... the above linked site also shows, that the total production from 1938 to 1944 exceeded the total consumption of the same time (including exports).

It seems more that it was less a question of the coal at hand than the facilities/synthetic-oil-products plants to process the coal.

Before this POD goes into a flame war, I would say the problem is not the coal but the plants to do the conversion.

This discussion has a ring of truth to it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/3ph1kb/prewar_german_synthetic_oil_development/

As it was, I think a three-fold increase in 4 years is good going.

Like so many PODs, it appears that for Hitler to do much better requires major changes before ww2 in 1930s.

Apart from 1944 my figures for crude petroleum are reasonably close to yours. Mine are in long tons. What type of "ton" is yours in?

No idea
 
To increase German coal production you need more manpower, specifically the kind of physically fit men the army also wants. On top of that as coal mining is hard physical labour you need to feed those miners a lot of calories, which means more demands on an agricultural system that is already failing to keep up with the needs of the German population and is also facing a manpower crunch, not to mention shortages of fertilizer and animal feed. In the end you can't square the circle of Nazi ideology and a working economy. Practically unlimited military spending at the expense of civilian production and exports is going to lead to disaster for an economy that needs large inputs of imported materials to function.
 
One ton of synthetic oil requires several tons of coal that could otherwise have been used for something else.

the modern ratio is a bit over one barrel from a ton of coal, cannot furnish the WWII-era results?

my point (standing on chair and screaming) is that an earlier adoption of producer gas vehicles and coal-fired fleet (obviously below cruiser size) would be ... better ... more efficient, decentralized ... AND it was implemented during wartime. as far as producer gas vehicles, they could burn anything, not limited to coal.

of course they would STILL need to build synthetic plants, even with Austrian and domestic oil, it is just the magnitude could have been kept to more realistic level. my understanding they reached 36m barrels per year by 1943, but schemed twice as much!

i.e. if they reached, say 18m per year earlier they could have stockpiled more oil pre-war? @PSL already highlighted their capacity left unfilled
 
the modern ratio is a bit over one barrel from a ton of coal, cannot furnish the WWII-era results?

The factoid I recall was 6 tons input for end war process.

?? there occurs a little confusion since 1 ton of oil = approx. 7 barrels AND the synthetic process is (again approx.) 6 - 7 tons of coal to produce 1 TON of oil? at any rate a horribly inefficient process even with modern technology applied.

hence my earlier post advocating for earlier synthetic plants, in that way oil could be stockpiled from a smaller factory complex rather than adding to inefficient process a monstrous construction program. (my understanding the hydrogenation process was ready, the Fischer-Tropsch process came along later but was never responsible for much volume just certain blends)
 
To increase German coal production you need more manpower, specifically the kind of physically fit men the army also wants. On top of that as coal mining is hard physical labour you need to feed those miners a lot of calories, which means more demands on an agricultural system that is already failing to keep up with the needs of the German population and is also facing a manpower crunch, not to mention shortages of fertilizer and animal feed. In the end you can't square the circle of Nazi ideology and a working economy. Practically unlimited military spending at the expense of civilian production and exports is going to lead to disaster for an economy that needs large inputs of imported materials to function.
The weird thing was the Germans didn't go for massive bucket wheel or dragline excavators till after the war for their open pit Mines. One would have thought The Mustache would have been quite enthusiastic about monster machines like that

Google up on Bucyrus-Erie or Fiorentini, who had license the walking dragline design in Europe
 
Last edited:
Libya would be interesting, but the Brits can bomb it from Egypt. So unless the Italians discover it around 1920, start exploiting it immediately after Mussolini comes to power, and decide to store everything (even although it's more than they could ever need in a war), I can't see how it helps.

my understanding Libya was at the limits of what could be developed in the 1930's? and the Italians would also be lacking in infrastructure to exploit it even if found?

not to mention it would be very, very easy target.
 
my understanding Libya was at the limits of what could be developed in the 1930's? and the Italians would also be lacking in infrastructure to exploit it even if found?

The Eastern deposits were well within US capability, but The Moose had pretty sour relations with US businesses by 1930, so that's pretty much a no go.
 
The weird thing was the Germans didn't go for massive bucket wheel or dragline excavators till after the war for their open pit Mines. One would have thought The Mustache would have been quite enthusiastic about monster machines like that

Google up on Bucyrus-Erie or Fiorentini, who had license the walking dragline design in Europe

I suspect that had something to do with the various deals that were made with German industry during the 1930's. Industry wasn't keen on creating 'overcapacity' that wouldn't make money in a normal economy. Same issue with steel, German steel makers much preferred to import high grade ore from Sweden rather than exploit lower grade German ores. They basically didn't do so until they were threatened with nationalization. The Nazi's were selectively squeamish, they repeatedly rejected moved to put the squeeze on industry and refused to even consider the kind of radical reorganization needed to make German agriculture efficient.
 
The Eastern deposits were well within US capability, but The Moose had pretty sour relations with US businesses by 1930, so that's pretty much a no go.

Also, oil prices in the early 1930s were very low
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/155-years-of-oil-prices-in-one-chart
which would be a problem to anyone thinking of developing this oil then, in particular, US businesses that had recently found plenty of oil in Texas and were suffering from overproduction.

However, by 1935, it may be possible giving about 4 years to get the oil online, if the oil had been found earlier then Mussolini in response to the 1935 league of nations sanctions authorised such a program, even with just some oil is being pumped in 1939 and it is clear that much more oil is there and can be pumped soon, ww2 would change dramatically.
 
The Axis should have refrained from invading the USSR until it secured the Mediterranean and the Mid East. If they had concentrated on this in 1940 and 41 and if the Italians had waited to enter the war until all of their merchant ships were back home and had secured Malta at the outset, it should have been doable by mid to late 1941. At that point they would have an alternate source of oil and also would be closer to the Baku area so that they could attack it from the South.
 
However, by 1935, it may be possible giving about 4 years to get the oil online, if the oil had been found earlier then Mussolini in response to the 1935 league of nations sanctions authorised such a program, even with just some oil is being pumped in 1939 and it is clear that much more oil is there and can be pumped soon, ww2 would change dramatically.

Just not enough time for a new field in that area.

Sure, an new field in Oklahoma could be pumping in a couple years- but that's the USA, new fields coming into production since the 1880s. Infrastructure is all there, all with suppliers and enough workers to make it happen quickly.

None of that applies in Libya in 1935
 
The factoid I recall was 6 tons input for end war process.


USSBS reports LTC [Low temp carbonization]
323,000 tons coal tar= 285,000 tons fuel.
brown coal to gasoline 8-10 tons = 1 ton gasoline, however 4-5 tons bituminous coal = 1 ton Gasoline...Avgas was made from the Bituminous coal
 
Last edited:

elkarlo

Banned
if they have more oil their dealings with USSR may be for other resources? and also would have less of need to detour south into Caucasus in 1942 (if invasion still occurs)
I think it may have stopped them from trying that hail mary to the oil fields. Was really a few bridges too far. Would be interesting if oil wasnt something badly needed, what they would have done in 42
 
Just not enough time for a new field in that area.

Sure, an new field in Oklahoma could be pumping in a couple years- but that's the USA, new fields coming into production since the 1880s. Infrastructure is all there, all with suppliers and enough workers to make it happen quickly.

None of that applies in Libya in 1935

It does not need to be online, all that would be needed is firm evidence that a substantial field exists. This could take between a few months to a year, Mussolini and then Hitler would come running. I imagine an army of labourers would be recruited and sent out. As it was large numbers of men in the Italian army were recruited in road construction to Egypt. Now they would be used for this.
 
The Eastern deposits were well within US capability, but The Moose had pretty sour relations with US businesses by 1930, so that's pretty much a no go.

Also, oil prices in the early 1930s were very low

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/155-years-of-oil-prices-in-one-chart

which would be a problem to anyone thinking of developing this oil then, in particular, US businesses that had recently found plenty of oil in Texas and were suffering from overproduction.

However, by 1935, it may be possible giving about 4 years to get the oil online, if the oil had been found earlier then Mussolini in response to the 1935 league of nations sanctions authorised such a program, even with just some oil is being pumped in 1939 and it is clear that much more oil is there and can be pumped soon, ww2 would change dramatically.

Just not enough time for a new field in that area.

Sure, an new field in Oklahoma could be pumping in a couple years- but that's the USA, new fields coming into production since the 1880s. Infrastructure is all there, all with suppliers and enough workers to make it happen quickly.

None of that applies in Libya in 1935

It does not need to be online, all that would be needed is firm evidence that a substantial field exists. This could take between a few months to a year, Mussolini and then Hitler would come running. I imagine an army of labourers would be recruited and sent out. As it was large numbers of men in the Italian army were recruited in road construction to Egypt. Now they would be used for this.
For what it's worth this is the oil production IOTL of Libya from 1960 to 1969.

Libyan Crude Petroleum Production 1960-69 Mk 2.png

Libyan Crude Petroleum Production 1960-69.png

However, as the oil was discovered in the 1950s and commercial drilling began in 1961 both might have been with technology that was about 30 years ahead of what Italy had in 1930.

Furthermore IOTL it was multinational oil companies with huge technical and financial resources at their disposal that found Libya's oil and then put in place the infrastructure required to extract it.

OTOH

Libya's production of 148 million long tons of crude oil in 1969 represented 7% of the 2 billion tons produced in the world that year and Libya was the world's fifth largest producer (USA, USSR, Venezuela, Iran and Libya in that order, Saudi Arabia was in sixth place).

However, Libya's oil production in 1969 was equal to 54% of the world's production in 1938, which was 275 million long tons.

Italy would have been helped considerably if "only" 15 million long tons could have been produced in Libya in 1938. Even 7.5 million long tons would still have exceeded what Romania produced annually IOTL.

Therefore, could a small proportion of what Libya produced in the 1960s IOTL with 1960s drilling technology have been produced in the 1930s with the drilling technology available to Italy in the 1930s?

One percent of 148 million long tons is still 1.48 million long tons and that is twelve times more than Italy was able to produce from its own oil wells and from Albania in 1938 IOTL.
 
Top