Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Military tactics, Feb 11, 2019.
How hard to defeat Nazi Germany if it had the oil supply to fight world war two ?
It's easier to bomb refineries located in Thuringia than by Ploesti
It depends on the source...
1-Is Central Europe another East Texas?
2-Does Germany capture Russian oilfields?
3-If not Russia, are there fields elsewhere within otl's Germany conquests?
4-Is a more efficient/cheaper coal liquification process developed?
1 and 4 mean increasing the Allied attacks on production facilities.
2 and 3 mean the same increased attacks, but on transportation.
Either way, it means more bombs. which means more bombers; which makes the controlling factor in how hard it would be to defeat Nazi Germany, the loading docks at Willow Run.
If you mean ASB "magic gas stations" intervention, then it get exponentially harder, especially as the war goes on, since otl efforts were increasingly successful in limiting Nazi fuel supplies.
what if they gained control of Austria earlier and developed the oilfields in Vienna Basin fully, including the huge Matzen field.
there is probably some sensible amalgam of synthetic plants, coal-fired ships, and producer gas vehicles not achieved historically? (only seriously adopted the latter two during the war)
A Nazi Germany that is sensible enough to win the war would not have started it.
The Nazis could have been awash in oil but it still wouldn't have helped them with their other issues such as their food and other resource deficits as well as their bat crap crazy ideologies. Hell, WI the German oil industry was primarily controlled by Jewish businesses? The damn fool Nazis would have fire bombed them then been forced to rebuild them a la Kristallnacht.
Isen't this a Geological POD, given oil deposits can't just be produced by chance events or human effort. A Pomeranian Petrol Paradise is going to have impacts far before WW II. The only way this could happen otherwise is Germany has different borders that include large areas of Eastern Europe, which also throws WW II onto the scrape heap as there's no need for more Living Space: you already have plenty!
This is a link to the last thread we had on the subject.
IOTL the peak of Austrian crude oil production was 3.5 million long tons in 1955 and West Germany's peak was 7.5-7.8 million long tons from 1964 to 1969. Meanwhile, Dutch crude petroleum production was 2.0-2.3 million long tons for the duration of the 1960s.
IIRC the consensus was that crude oil could have been produced in those quantities with the technology available in the 1930s if the Austrians, Dutch and Germans had known it was there.
I agree that Ploesti was beyond the range of Wallied strategic bombers until the bases in southern Italy became available.
However, I think they would be reasonably secure until well into 1942. This is because RAF Bomber Command was unlikely to find them at night until Gee came into service and area bombing tactics were adopted.
The US 8th Air Force wouldn't have been able to do them much harm until the Merlin-Mustang became available and that wasn't until 1944. AFAIK one of the priority targets the 8th Air Force's list after the Merlin-Mustang was available was Germany's synthetic oil industry.
There's also the not so small point that quite often the problem wasn't an absolute shortage of oil but the inability to get it where it was needed. The Wehrmacht logistics system was wholly inadequate and more oil just means more fuel and lubricants piling up in the rear areas.
SO Germany could have produced 13 million tons per year before we get into serious ASB beyond ignoring how this comes about. The OKW estimated a need of 12.4 million tonnes in 1941, so that is an interesting figure. Lets assume it starts in 1926 and increase 1 million tonnes per years so they have produced 84.5 million tonnes before ww2 starts. At 13 USD per barrel (a good medium period estimate) and an average of 7 barrel per tons it is 7.689 billion USD saved on foreign exchange on imports (or gained in imports) which comes in at 19 billion reichsmark. Lets assumed half is lost investing in the oil industry and petrochemical industry and reduced global oil prices. It still basically solve Germany's FOREX problems during the rearmament period - in addition to provide the oil needed during the war (bombing dependent off course).
It may also stimulate the automobile/agricultural tractor industry pre-war leading to an easier establishment of the panzer corps and their required organic truck pools.
They might win considering only the direct pro-German butterflies which is off course quite a stretch.
IIRC there was some discussion in the earlier threat about whether it was in addition to Germany's synthetic oil programme or instead of it.
In the latter case the resources needed to develop the oil fields came from not building the synthetic oil plants. It also saved Germany the coal used to make the synthetic oil IOTL. However, no synthetic oil means a smaller net increase in Germany's total oil supply.
What's the serious ASB part? It may or may not be ASB, I simply don't know.
If it isn't ASB then it's frightening.
Nearly all what ifs about the Axis are insufficient to change the course of the war on their own. They increase the number of people that die. They increase the number of injured and maimed. They increase the amount of material destruction. They make it harder for the world to recover after the war ends. However, several have to be combined so that the Axis powers win, which is fortunate for the human race.
IMHO this is one of the few what ifs that on its own makes an Axis victory feasible.
It would be ASB to go beyond the historical max production. Now its just a really big stretch in why they would start it and how.
You might want to look at the ASB story "An extremely enthusiastic Hitler SI" found here:
The author is a logistics expert and basically treats the SI as himself just as a hardcore neo-Nazi. The SI uses his modern knowledge to discover oil and gas fields that were only discovered after the war, as well as tipping off the Japanese and the Italians to the undiscovered resources they have in Manchuria and Libya. It also helps that he changes up the government to be more efficient and less at odds with itself.
Having a sufficient fuel reserve from 1936 to 1941 will allow Germany to build up their fuel reserve and thus the Wehrmacht can avoid de-motorizations of their Infantry Divisiobs for Ops Barbarossa and give them better manuever flexibility to keep up with the German panzer n motorized divisions and assist in surrounding the Soviet pockets at a faster pace and deny any higher number of soviet troops from escaping the kessel pockets ...
The Luftwaffe will also probably have more fuel to train more pilots and create more experience flyers to be used on both fronts...
And the millions of horses that the Wehrmacht used to assist the infantry move their heavy equipment can be used instead on the agricultural fields to help the farmers on plowing n moving their harvest to be stockpile for future usages...
The lack of trucks and rubber for tires was also a major problem, not just fuel shortages. If anything the extra fuel helps the economy in Europe as they don't have to rely on demotorization/any other fuel besides petroleum products. If anything they'd benefit more from having tractors than horses on farms.
I guess the question is where is it coming from? You mean like in Germany or?
That is at least as important as the availability of the oil on the front line.
Also, oil is available in North Africa, that should be good till 1943, a POD would involve changes in the pre-ww2 timeline to make this oil available but if it is, then Germany has oil till 1943
If Germany does not attack Russia she has oil from Russia.
More could have been gotten out of Romania.
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