Nazi conquest of Sweden, Spain, and Italy + No Barbarossa = Long-lasting Nazi Europe?

Let's assume the following scenario:

During late 1940 and/or early 1941, Sweden, Spain, and Italy switch to the Allied side for whatever reasons (Mussolini's and Franco's early death, dunno about Sweden). The Wehrmacht then successfully, albeit slowly and costly, occupies all of those three countries (and by extension, Portugal). The Battle of Greece happens more or less as in OTL, and with similar result as well. The occupation of nearly all of the continental Europe, and the fact that the majority of Wehrmacht has been tied down to the occupation and suppression of rebellions throughout Europe, has prompted Hitler and other high-ranking Nazis to cancel the planned invasion of Soviet Union. They decide that the "Nazification" of Europe is a far more important issue than the acquisition of new Lebensraum.

So...
At this point, will the British accept a ceasefire?
What will the USSR do without Nazi invasion?
What will be the effect of this to Second Sino-Japanese War? And the upcoming Pacific War?
In this scenario, how long will the Nazism last in Europe?
 
1) Why would we? Germany will have been bloodied by the campaign and will continue to be overstretched by greater partisan activity (Italy and Spain are no strangers to prolonged political war, so no dount a traumatic invasion with rival governments being proclaimed all over the shop will open the wounds, especially when SOE gets its hand in) and economically hampered by the damage to these linked economies, the reluctance of occupied people sto work for their rulers, and the loss of Sweden's iron mines, which I believe the Swedes intended to dynamite in the event of invasion.

We, on the other hand, will probably have been able to seize North Africa during the chaos.

If the mauling of the USSR and the widespread belief that it was finished didn't provoke a ceasefire, why the fall of these comparatively inconsequential countries?

2) Grin evilly at the continuing mess faced by both combatants in the war, finish re-organising the Red Army, and start to make awkward noises about supply deliveries to Germany and to project plans for a strike against Ploesti, I should think.

3) Whereas I know precious little about the politics of the Japanese regime, I don't see any immediate economic or political ramifications for Japan. They're still in the same fix, and the motivatiosn for expanding the war are still the same.

4) Until the Red Army gets there, probably.
 
Hitler's regime just got a whole lot shorter. There are going to be a lot of partisans in the new occupied territories, and an overstretched Germany will not be able to deal with them all, and be able to project a stable war machine. Contrary to Hitler's beliefs, Europe would not sit down and let him stomp all over them. This will just give Britain plenty of new areas to land on the continent, where they will most likely receive plenty of support from the locals while they establish a new front, and the Red Army will crush through the east in an attempt to overthrow German hegemony of Europe.

Also, if Italy, Portugal and Spain are occupied due to Franco, Salazar and Mussolini siding against Hitler, I can see Fascism going on for longer due to them being on the 'right' side of the war now. For better or worse, Fascism might continue in popularity after the war. Britain will not accept a ceasefire at this point, not with Germany looking at them evilly over the ocean from all angles now.

The Far Eastern war would go the same. Japan would overextend itself, and fight on till they have an unlikely burst of common sense.

Nazism would last possibly less then in OTL, due to the overextended Wehrmacht allowing numerous weak spots for the Allies to hit. The only thing that is in doubt is how much of Europe will be Red after the inevitable victory.
 
the British accept a ceasefire, only if Lord Edward Halifax become Prime minister.
POD: Churchill is killed by taxi driver in New York in 1931, OTL Churchill got light injury

There were plans for NAZI invasion of Sweden
has rich on deposit of raw materials like iron ore, copper, tin, lead, gold.
also was vage plan to invasion Spain to get Gibraltar, but Hitler refused this in respect of Franco.

but the Third Reich will not have big future
One big problem was OIL there were no big deposit in Europe mainland
that one of the reason for Hitler to Invade USSR, to get Baku Oilfields
Next to that is economy and fiscal policy of NSDAP, or better the lack of it
In 1939 the Third Reich was edge of bankruptcy as it invade Poland (i not sure if this info is true)

But the Biggest problem in this TL of all is HITLER, He was obsessive about conquer the East
 
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CalBear

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Problem with this sort of scenario is that the entire point of Hitler's war was to wipe out The Slav. To change that is to alter the entire underpinning of Hitler's world.

I would also venture to say that, in mid-1940, the Germans would have been hard pressed to CONQUER Spain, Italy and Sweden. As the Allies learned to their great sorrow, Italy is built for defense. Italian troops would also be a much better force defended home ground than screwing around in Africa or Russia. Punching into Spain is also not the easiest thing in the world, with terrain that again favors the defense. Sweden is the easiest to see, but even there the Heer would be hard pressed to pull off the sort of Blitz that marked its great successes on the European Plains.

The Heer's success was built around Fire, maneuver, and shock. Take those away and the Heer becomes a much less formidable opponent.
 
Hitler didn't attack the USSR due to racial policies, he attacked it because it was a threat. The USSR was using Germany's war in the west to aggressively extend its sphere of influence. They were also greatly improving their armed forces.

There was only a narrow window of opportunity to strike, otherwise the USSR would probably first push their positions forwards by swallowing even more of eastern Europe (including the Romanian oil-fields) and then launch a devastating invasion.
 
The Swedish and Italian armies are a pretty good match for the Wehrmacht, especially with their tough terrain. The Spanish lack equipment, but have excellent veterans and easily defensible terrain. I think, with British aid, they could hold off the Germans, especially the Italians and the Swedish.
 
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