baldy46 posted this on another thread:
Hm, how about something I haven't seen yet: Germany doesn't build the Bismarck, Tirpitz, etc. Britain was always more worried about controlling the sea lanes than Continental politics, and with absolutely no German surface navy to worry about the British political powers-that-be decide to make a deal with Germany, and make sure that Halifax becomes the Premier instead of Churchill. Even in our time line, there was a sizable contingent in the City (British Wall Street???) that thought that fighting Germany would weaken the British Empire to the point that it would collapse, which is what happened.
Plus all the money, steel, and man hours that went into basically useless ships goes into planes and tanks.
This got me thinking about the rise of the High Seas Fleet early in the 20th century. Germany was starting from scratch, but managed to field a fleet that was certainly a worthy opponent in WWI. This was only possible because a naval revolution made most of the RN obsolete overnight.
WWII had another naval revolution handy: the aircraft carrier.
What if Hitler decided that carriers were the future, and built up a naval aviation arm instead of a battle line? Perhaps instead of opposing the carriers, Goering sees them as a way to reduce the power of the navy and thus increase his own.
Let's take a POD as around 1935; Bismark is never ordered, Gneisenau & Scharnhorst are converted to carriers during construction much like the USS Lexington & Saratoga. All four Graf Zepplins are built, two of them being ready at the start of hostilities. Germany retains the cruiser/carrier concept, with a cruiser-level gun armament on each ship.
The RN had a significant carrier force in OTL, but the battle-line was dominant, and would probably remain so, with old guard admirals laughing up their sleeves at the idea that German carriers could be a threat to RN battleships. It seems a fair start to assume little difference in the makeup and plans of the RN from OTL.
Germany can probably gain some technical assistance from Japan, but not until close to the start of the war. German aircraft and operations will benefit, but basic hull forms will be as above.
What impact would this have on the course of the war?