As the title, if Mussolini grew a brain in 1940, how possible was an armistice mediated by Mussolini between Germany and Uk after ther armistice with France?? (Obviously butterfly away the Italian DoW on the allies) is it absolutely bullshit or has it some plausibility? And to make it work what POD do you suggest?
Nazi-British peace mediated by Mussolini?
Can't see it happening. But if someone can think of anything plausible, I would love to read it.
Mussolini is smart enough to walk the line between the Allies and Germany realizing that the fear for the latter can be used to garner concessions from the former to retain neutrality. This can likely be achieved by Mussolini rejecting rather than embracing the increasing racism and anti-semitism of Hitler raising doubts in how sane or trustworthy the man is. Hell, have his alliance with Hitler be nothing but a sham to barter with.
Let Dunkirk turn into an Allied disaster. Rather than declare war on France, Mussolini reaches out to the UK to establish peace with a hidden agreement to be benevolent neutral toward the UK should Hitler violate the peace. He realizes things look bad and the UK is desperate. Italy surely can't afford ANOTHER war and playing both sides will only benefit Italy. Of course concessions for brokering the peace could include various territory: Nice, Corsica, Tunisia, etc.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
The problem is, at that point, the Italian economy is WAY too closely tied to Germany's for Mussolini to risk alienating Hitler and watching his attempts to build up or even sustain the Italian war machine collapse around him. Germany was supplying Italy with the majority of its coal and steel imports: things heavy industry can't afford to do without, while the share of her trade that took place with the British Empire had been declining for years. Add that to the fact that the Germans just demonstrated their complete mastery of land warfare by following up the 6-week conquest of France with the wholesale destruction/capture of the BEF, and Italy should have no doubt as to who is holding both the carrot and the stick.
Mussolini's intervention only really has a chance of being effective if it takes place early enough or in just the right circumstances that the Allied cause dosen't look quite so bleak and irreversible (baring Germany getting walloped elsewhere... say, the Russian steppes)... or he manages to convince Roosevelt to also mediate the peace talks. Having America say bluntly to Britian's face that this time the Yanks are not coming "over there" and telling them to reach an accommodation with Germany might just shock GB into accepting Mussolini's offer.
That won't help relations.British response - German Navy gets basing rights in Halifax and Bermuda...
FillyofDelphi
Banned
British response - German Navy gets basing rights in Halifax and Bermuda...
...Why? Just because a country who has zero obligations to you decides they aren't going (essentially) pay for your war says they're willing to mediate a fair deal for you after you'd just lost your only land-based bargaining chip? In fact, having the US offering to mediate would probably give the British a BETTER deal than they'd get from negotiating alone with the Axis: Mussolini and at least some of the German government is going to recognize that if they're too unreasonable, all they'd be doing is vindicating Churchill's assertion that surrender is not an option and they'll have to spend blood and treasure wrestling out of his hands what they could get conceded for free (along with, likely, access to American and British trade to supply their reckoning against Communism for Germany and tact consent to Italy's regional ambitions) if they make peace actually palatable rather than national suicide.
Any peace has to be an "accomindiation" with Hitler; not a surrender to him. Agreeing to reasonable terms on France (Since Germany no longer needs major airfields and naval bases on the Channel or have anything to fear from a British amphibious assault, I can imagine they'd be less stingy in the amount of land they'd give the Vichy government... perhaps in exchange for colonial concessions that would go to Italy and Spain), the return of the huge number of POW's that the Germans bagged before they could escape across the channel, and perhaps a German guarantee of the British Empire's territorial sovergenity (I.E.: Tell your Japanese friends that our Pacific colonies are a no-go zone.), and you could very easily see Facism get a more distinctly "Anti-Communist Crusaders" impression.
The purpose of offering the Germans basing rights in the West Atlantic is to scupper the peace deal as it'd be unacceptable to the US.
The US would be annoyed, then realise that the British were quite serious about fighting the Nazis and would have to choose whether to support them or not - with both US and UK knowing that US support for Britain was very much in the US national interest...
The US would be annoyed, then realise that the British were quite serious about fighting the Nazis and would have to choose whether to support them or not - with both US and UK knowing that US support for Britain was very much in the US national interest...
As I understand, other than hard facts, Musso had some sort of personal influence over Hitler.
After all the latter helped the former in his adventures even when they were hardly reasonable and beyond what an ally could have requested.
Could this have been used to his advantage?
After all the latter helped the former in his adventures even when they were hardly reasonable and beyond what an ally could have requested.
Could this have been used to his advantage?
I suggest you consult the Cabinet minutes for the Dunkirk/ Dynamo period. This was basically what Halifax was suggesting be explored. Winston, Clem, Arthur Greenwood, and, fatally for Halifax, Chamberlain, all said not-yet-meaning-no.