Nazi/American Cold War Proxy Conflicts/Alignments

Teshuvah

Banned
Assume for the sake of argument that Nazi Germany defeats the USSR and gets very lucky (similar to the scenario in Fatherland), leading to them being in charge of the European continent. They negotiate a truce with the USA, and a Cold War of sorts begins.

What sort of proxy wars and conflicts would take place between the two powers, and who might nations align themselves with? IMO Nazism isn't quite as exportable as communism was given its inherently racist undertones.

Personally I think Latin America becomes solidly American-aligned. Without Europe, the US needs a counterweight to Nazi influence, and the Monroe Doctrine could be used to justify quashing any pro-Nazi regimes in Central or South America.
 
Like how the United States and the Soviet Union often had allies that didn't quite fit their ideological milieu, Nazi Germany is likely to find allies which are keen to try "Fascism with [insert nation here] characteristics".

Some examples of possible/probable Nazi allies:

-Turkey: With Axis domination of the Mediterranean, the Balkans and the Caucasus, the Turks are highly likely to ally with Nazi Germany, possibly in exchange for some territory in Transcaucasia, Cyprus etc.

-Various Arab areas: Whether in the form of a right-Ba'athist UAR (imho most likely) or local monarchies, the Germans will find willing allies in local revolutionaries seeking to overthrow British influence in places like Iraq and Aden.

-Sub-Saharan Africa: Like in the Cold War IOTL, decolonisation (if it happens) is likely to produce some oddball countries. More African countries than OTL will probably go the Ivoirian route, seeking to integrate into the 'world economy' as represented by the US capitalist system. The problem is, often resources in these areas are dominated by a handful of corporations, which could work very well with the fascist corporatist model. Also, the Free French and the like are pretty much fucked, as with the French metropole under the control of Vichy's successors, they will basically have to disintegrate as anything more than a government-in-exile, since demands for independence from France will lead to German support for the "freedom fighters". Sure, giving blacks guns to rise up against whites may sit uneasily with Nazi ideology, but so did having Slavic allies. They'll likely just come up with some typical doublethink like "sure the Negros are degenerate primitives, but their success against their colonisers proves the weakness and decadence of the liberal capitalist system, one which is thus clearly inferior to National Socialism, which has preserved and revitalised European civilisation. The United States and the pathetic remnants of the British and French empires are the last bastions of the Judeo-Capitalist coven, seeking to undermine all of our peoples. Because of the degree of their simplicity, the Negro cannot be corrupted to the same degree by the Jew". And then there might be Mobutu-esque rulers who actively seek to imitate the fascist strongmen. More horrifically, I could see certain groups (say, the Hutus in Rwanda), pointing at the Holocaust as an example to emulate in the annihilation of "similarly parasitic" groups (read: Tutsis).

-China: Most likely, will be a Nationalist China playing both sides, pretty much neutral. Likely at the head of a Non-Aligned Movement analogue, if one exists in this world.

-South Africa: If the Afrikaners get REALLY emboldened by Nazi antics. Possibly an overdone stereotype though.

-Turkestan/Central Asia: Even with the Soviets pushed back to the Urals, the Germans are going to want to break the USSR up as small and weak as possible. Could take advantage of the Russophobia that will inevitably come from the harsh requisitioning of materials and conscription required to continue fighting the Germans. Some sort of large Turkestan puppet would probably be preferable to the Germans than multiple smaller states.

-Afghanistan/Iran: Both could easily have establishment monarchies side with Germany for pragmatic reasons. Will even quite possibly be considered "Aryan peoples".

-Spain/Portugal: Almost certainly in the German camp.

-Latin America: Depends. Sure there was a decent amount of Nazi sympathy, but I agree that they would most likely all stay with the US. Possibility of some kind of coup being mounted in Argentina or Brazil, which might be a bit more tolerated than Cuba was due to a greater distance, but the Americans are going to be very wary of any fascist presence in 'their hemisphere'.
 

Teshuvah

Banned
Excellent analysis @Hrvatskiwi. With regards to Spain, I think Franco will align with Germany but will probably be more independent than most other European states. He might be willing to play the USA and the Nazis off of each other in exchange for some autonomy to do his own thing.

What do you think becomes of the European neutrals? Switzerland is rich enough that they could keep their neutrality in check, but Ireland is going to be hard-pressed to avoid aligning with the Nazis if the UK loses.
 
I was operating under the assumption that this was a Cold War where the UK stayed outside German control. If that is the case, then Ireland will stay aligned with the Wallies. Ireland will be able to do its own thing, even though there may be some more radical Republican factions that seek German support, invoking the spectre of the 1916 Easter Rising. Will see more about the "sanctity of the Irish nation" and less socialist rhetoric. But I doubt they'll be able to topple the government. Ireland could either be left alone as a neutral (with the caveat that no nuclear weapons can be installed there by the US/UK, or it could end up being a very significant pawn in a Nazi-US Cold War.

I feel like Spain will be about the same level of independence as Turkey, tbh, which is miles ahead of, say, Croatia or France, but yeah.

Switzerland will most likely be kept useful because it's financial apparatuses and lack of transparency are very convenient, for both sides.

Sweden will be able to institute pretty much whatever social democratic policies they want, as long as they don't speak out too much against the Nazis, which they'll be unlikely to do anyway because they're so economically dependent on Germany, as well as being encircled by Germany and its Allies.

Portugal could go either way, tbh, since they would have strong commercial ties with both sides. Expect them to be Finlandised at best, aligned with Germany at worse.

Any other areas you're curious about? I'm surprised there haven't been more responses, it seems like an interesting topic to me.
 

Riain

Banned
One thing the Soviets had going for them was the massive size of their country gave them close access to a lot of countries, from East Asia through the Middle East to Europe, I once read that mid east countries considered the Soviets to be very close but other powers very distant. A victorious Germany won't have easy access to Asia and not very good access to the Mid East.
 
There is one Axis aligned (or leaning) country in Latin America OTL, Paraguay. I expect they get coup'd soon after peace to prevent a German foothold there.
 
There is one Axis aligned (or leaning) country in Latin America OTL, Paraguay. I expect they get coup'd soon after peace to prevent a German foothold there.

Paraguay might even be left to rot on the vine. The Germans wouldn't be able to project power there, since its landlocked. Strasser (if he's in power there as per OTL) might even be left as an example of the follies of Fascism.
 
One thing the Soviets had going for them was the massive size of their country gave them close access to a lot of countries, from East Asia through the Middle East to Europe, I once read that mid east countries considered the Soviets to be very close but other powers very distant. A victorious Germany won't have easy access to Asia and not very good access to the Mid East.

I'd absolutely agree about the Germans having poor access to Asia, however:

-Turkestan could be an exception, since they can ship or fly across the Caspian.

-The Soviets only had a significant presence in North-East Asia, with the exception of Vietnam, which was more independent than many give it credit for and which got more tangible support from China than the USSR. Alignment with the USSR was largely a mechanism to minimise Chinese influence, knowing the Russians couldn't and wouldn't oversee Vietnamese internal developments to the extent that the Chinese would.

-The Soviet Union was separated from the Arab world by the Baghdad Pact, including the stauncly pro-Western governments in Iran and Turkey. Sure, they weren't far away, but if anything the Axis will be closer, probably containing Turkey, with a relatively friendly (or at least compliant) Iran, and dominating the Mediterranean sea.
 
Paraguay might even be left to rot on the vine. The Germans wouldn't be able to project power there, since its landlocked. Strasser (if he's in power there as per OTL) might even be left as an example of the follies of Fascism.
Actually Morínigo was in power in WWII. And the Germans already projected influence there, at least before Pearl Harbor
It is no exaggeration to say that Morínigo headed a pro-Axis regime. Large numbers of Paraguayan military officers and government officials were openly sympathetic to the Axis. Among these officials was the national police chief, who named his son Adolfo Hirohito after the leading Axis personalities. By 1941 the official newspaper, El País, had adopted an overtly proGerman stance. At the same time, the government strictly controlled pro-Allied labor unions. Police cadets wore swastikas and Italian insignia on their uniforms. The December 1941 Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and Germany's declaration of war against the United States gave the United States the leverage it needed, however, to force Morínigo to commit himself publicly to the Allied cause. Morínigo officially severed diplomatic relations with the Axis countries in 1942, although he did not declare war against Germany until February 1945. Nonetheless, Morínigo continued to maintain close relations with the heavily German-influenced Argentine military throughout the war and provided a haven for Axis spies and agents.

United States protests over German and Argentine activities in Paraguay fell on deaf ears. While the United States defined its interests in terms of resisting the fascist threat, Paraguayan officials believed their interests lay in economic expediency and were reluctant to antagonize Germany until the outcome of the war was no longer in doubt. Many Paraguayans believed Germany was no more of a threat to Paraguay's sovereignty than the United States.

They might not be on the German side if America is looking to throw its weight down there.
 
What would come of Japan?

What about India, Indonesia, Australia, and New Zealand? Would Aus and NZ become far more important players in the Cold War?

This is a very interesting idea and I'd love to see more discussion.
 
What would come of Japan?

What about India, Indonesia, Australia, and New Zealand? Would Aus and NZ become far more important players in the Cold War?

This is a very interesting idea and I'd love to see more discussion.

Assuming that Japan loses the war with the USA, Aus and NZ would be of limited importance due to basically being as far as possible from Germany. Indonesia is likely to play along with the USA, given that the Asia-Pacific area will basically be a US lake. With India it depends on the particulars, there are many possible permutations there.
 
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