Naval Question

[Croesus]

My sense of naval matters sucks. Here is a scenario that I need some sort of expert analysis of.

British Forces (in order of encounter).
1. The battlecruiser Renown together with four escort destroyers has been ordered to provide escort for the convoy below following news of the German main fleet in the area. They are sailing WSW
2. The light cruisers Glasgow and Sheffield and the heavy cruisers Devonshire and York are transporting troops to Bergen. They are sailing ESE.
3. The battlecruiser Repulse, the light cruiser Penelope and four destroyers have also been ordered to escort the convoy. They are sailing due S.

German Forces.
1. The pocket battleship Lutzow, heavy cruiser Admiral Hipper, four destroyers and two U-boats have just escorted a convoy into Trondheim and have returned to open sea to rendesvous with the rest of the German fleet. They are sailing WSW.
2. The battlecruisers Scharnhorst and Gneisenau and four U-boats are escorting ten troop carrying destroyers to Bergen. They are sailing SSE having looped out into the North Sea before coming in.
3. The light cruisers Koln and Konigsberg, six E-boats and two torpedo boats are close to the coast and sailing NNE.

Notes.
1. ITTL Lutzow has not suffered the engine trouble that OTL saw her transferred from the Trondheim operation to the Oslo.
2. The German move is reactive, and no expedition is planned for Narvik. 3. Both sides will be anxious to ensure their troop carrying units are safeguarded.
4. This is a meeting engagement and neither fleet has an ideal situation.
5. The German plan following the Bergen landings is to unite the capital ships and sail northwards and draw away the RN.
6. The RN has to safeguard Narvik while preventing a breakout into the Atlantic.
7. The positions and directions are approximate only; for further perspective go here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=1302304#post1302304

So, what happens next?

 

[MrP]

I've been PM'd by Thande, and have in turn PM'd Fenk.

The German BCs have better range (about 11,000 yards, I think), but awful penetration against the British BCs. Given that everyone's closing on one another, and neither side can abandon their transports, I'd be minded to put money on the RN. I'd also say the British light forces are superior in quality to the German ones.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

PM Fell and ask him to look at this.

This is impossible to answer without more info. Namely:

- When is this? It matters for fire control, etc.
- What are the timeframes? i.e. how far apart are all these forces and when do they encounter each other?
- How long has everyone been sailing? Fuel capacity, etc?
- What is the weather like? What is the visibility? Is it day or night? What season? Whar air assets are available?
- Who is in command of the opposing fleets?
- Are the British cruisers actually carrying troops or escorting troop ships?

My first instinct is that the British will plunge after the Germans who will flee, not knowing what they're up against.

All things being equal, the Germans have a pretty hefty advantage in materiel, but not necessarily in heavy weather. It's close enough that it could go any way. The Germans have a serious disadvantage in having all their destroyers loaded with troops - and their SSs are going to be of little use in a fleet action. If the British cruisers are carrying troops that is a handicap.

My sense of naval matters sucks. Here is a scenario that I need some sort of expert analysis of.

British Forces (in order of encounter).
1. The battlecruiser Renown together with four escort destroyers has been ordered to provide escort for the convoy below following news of the German main fleet in the area. They are sailing WSW
2. The light cruisers Glasgow and Sheffield and the heavy cruisers Devonshire and York are transporting troops to Bergen. They are sailing ESE.
3. The battlecruiser Repulse, the light cruiser Penelope and four destroyers have also been ordered to escort the convoy. They are sailing due S.

German Forces.
1. The pocket battleship Lutzow, heavy cruiser Admiral Hipper, four destroyers and two U-boats have just escorted a convoy into Trondheim and have returned to open sea to rendesvous with the rest of the German fleet. They are sailing WSW.
2. The battlecruisers Scharnhorst and Gneisenau and four U-boats are escorting ten troop carrying destroyers to Bergen. They are sailing SSE having looped out into the North Sea before coming in.
3. The light cruisers Koln and Konigsberg, six E-boats and two torpedo boats are close to the coast and sailing NNE.

Notes.
1. ITTL Lutzow has not suffered the engine trouble that OTL saw her transferred from the Trondheim operation to the Oslo.
2. The German move is reactive, and no expedition is planned for Narvik. 3. Both sides will be anxious to ensure their troop carrying units are safeguarded.
4. This is a meeting engagement and neither fleet has an ideal situation.
5. The German plan following the Bergen landings is to unite the capital ships and sail northwards and draw away the RN.
6. The RN has to safeguard Narvik while preventing a breakout into the Atlantic.
7. The positions and directions are approximate only; for further perspective go here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=1302304#post1302304

So, what happens next?

 

[Douglas]

First gut feeling:

What are the odds of this being a confusing but disappointingly short skirmish in the fog with a couple destroyers getting nailed, and that's about it?

Second gut feeling:

The Germans are screwed.

Actual analysis:

My first thought is that communication is going to be garbled and ugly: each side has three separate forces. The Germans would have a slightly better chance of having things straightened out before things get hideous simply because they planned to rendezvous here well in advance, although I'm not entirely sure how the the two light cruisers-cum-E-boats fit into the picture.

Second thought: the convergence isn't going to happen all at the same time. Even a matter of ten to fifteen minutes is going to make a huge difference, and it depends on which group sees which group first.

If the British BC groups spot any German group, they will engage without a doubt, as they are under orders to protect the convoy. In these cases if they spot the pocket BBs they are liable to give full chase at 30+ knots to "bag some Krauts", even if only one group arrives on the scene first. If they spot S & G, then they are likely to be more cautious and actually protect the convoy, although they would still, of course, bring the battle to the Germans. If they BC groups find the little light cruiser group, and the other German ships don't show up for thirty minutes to an hour...*urk*.

If the BC groups haven't arrived yet, and its just the four British cruisers seen first, the German forces will attack...maybe. The pocket BBs won't attack alone: only a combination of all three German groups would attack that convoy, and even then I wonder how interested the German commanders would be in giving up their mission to sink some cruisers.

I guess that my final guess is that everyone involved will be very cautious with their convoys: the British will send theirs away from the Germans at best speed, and the Germans won't risk loaded destroyers in battle, either sending them forward alone (if the British BCs haven't spotted them yet) or having them turn back. That leaves us with the British BCs and S & G and the pocket BBs (the little coastal cruiser force has no place in this battle) having a short, loud skirmish and then everyone going home.

I would propose two options to you:

1) The German forces come upon the British convoy all at the same time, with the British BC groups nowhere to be seen. They chase the British convoy off, and land their troops, only then realizing that the British are now outside waiting.

2) The British fleets meet up, and the Germans turn around and run home as fast as they can. This, to me, seems most likely.

 

[Douglas]

PM Fell and ask him to look at this.

This is impossible to answer without more info. Namely:

- When is this? It matters for fire control, etc.
- What are the timeframes? i.e. how far apart are all these forces and when do they encounter each other?
- How long has everyone been sailing? Fuel capacity, etc?
- What is the weather like? What is the visibility? Is it day or night? What season? Whar air assets are available?
- Who is in command of the opposing fleets?
- Are the British cruisers actually carrying troops or escorting troop ships?

Well put. I sort of tried to come up with some scenarios assuming mediocre visibility and weather, with different "entry times" for the various warships. I mean, they are just not going to arrive within 30 seconds of each other.

My first instinct is that the British will plunge after the Germans who will flee, not knowing what they're up against.

That's what I put in case the Germans run into R & R.

All things being equal, the Germans have a pretty hefty advantage in materiel, but not necessarily in heavy weather. It's close enough that it could go any way. The Germans have a serious disadvantage in having all their destroyers loaded with troops - and their SSs are going to be of little use in a fleet action. If the British cruisers are carrying troops that is a handicap.

Exactly. Those destroyers were terrible in poor weather already: with troops, they're hardly useful at all. If the British cruisers have troops, and S & G wander up, they're going to be more concerned about not losing a couple thousand troops than to go toe-to-toe with a couple of BCs.

 

[Croesus]

This is impossible to answer without more info. Namely:
- When is this? It matters for fire control, etc.
- What are the timeframes? i.e. how far apart are all these forces and when do they encounter each other?
- How long has everyone been sailing? Fuel capacity, etc?
- What is the weather like? What is the visibility? Is it day or night? What season? Whar air assets are available?
- Who is in command of the opposing fleets?
- Are the British cruisers actually carrying troops or escorting troop ships?

- When: Mar 1 1940.
- What: all sub-groups are in operational range and proceeding towards each other in order given and on rough headings. The fleets aren't compact or well organised. Feel free to add more detail here as desired.
- How: British units departed 26 Feb, though this could be pushed back to 27 Feb. German units departed 28 Feb.
- What/s: Weather is bad, difficult seas, snow flurries, strong wind. Visibility poor. Time is pre-dawn, perhaps 4.00 AM. Luftwaffe busy over Norway, bad flying conditions anyway.
- Who: Lutzow is commanded by Thiele, Scharnhorst by Hoffman and Gneisenau by Netzbandt. I assume that puts Thiele in command on the German side. Renown is commanded by Whitworth, don't know who's in command of the Repulse. Overall British command is by Forbes on the Rodney, but out of the action

.If the British cruisers are carrying troops that is a handicap.

The four cruisers in the second group each have a battalion on board.

Cool, things are looking interesting.

 

[Croesus]

although I'm not entirely sure how the the two light cruisers-cum-E-boats fit into the picture.

Well, it came down to me trying to guess what the Germans do now they don't have to send troops to Narvik. They've got a couple of light cruisers and E-boats and know the British are active along the coast. Seemed likely to my landlubber head that they'd look to slip them up the coast on the coattails of the big guys and see what happened. *weak smile*

Second thought: the convergence isn't going to happen all at the same time. Even a matter of ten to fifteen minutes is going to make a huge difference, and it depends on which group sees which group first.

I would propose two options to you:

1) The German forces come upon the British convoy all at the same time, with the British BC groups nowhere to be seen. They chase the British convoy off, and land their troops, only then realizing that the British are now outside waiting.

2) The British fleets meet up, and the Germans turn around and run home as fast as they can. This, to me, seems most likely.

This is far too cool, thanks, I'm getting a great picture.

 

[Croesus]

If the British cruisers have troops, and S & G wander up, they're going to be more concerned about not losing a couple thousand troops than to go toe-to-toe with a couple of BCs.

Gads. Putting myself in the pov of the various commanders (or worse, that of Pvt Thande and KOYLI) I'm not sure if I'd have the nerve to be a sailor. What an absolute freaking nightmare for the lead cruiser in the British convoy to find both the ugly sisters.

 

[Thande]

or worse, that of Pvt Thande and KOYLI

From what I've read, the infantry usually completely ignored the outside world while being transported and blamed any problems (such as delays, or being torpedoed) on the RN So they wouldn't even know they were in such dire straits until it was too late.

(And that was Sergeant Thande's Grandfather I'll have you know!)

 

[Fellatio Nelson]

I don't actually know a great deal about WW2 warships and can't, off the top of my head, add to what else has been said.

But I can give the following pointers:

It has, for centuries, been drilled into the Navy that you never run away from an unequal fight (unless it is stupidly ill-matched or would detract from the overall objective).

Depending on the personalities of the force commander and his captains (who'd have to make decisions in isolation at some points during the battle), it determines whether they'd send the overloaded cruisers against superior enemy units.

As for the U-boats, they'd only really be of use as intelligent mines during daylight, hoping the British stumble into them unawares (and even then, IIRC the German torpedoes had an appalling kill-ratio that wasn't sorted out until the Battle of the Atlantic period), or launching nocturnal surface attacks (which would be limited in effectiveness since the British ships would tend to keep fairly high speeds and pursue fairly random courses).