Natural Break up of a United States of Greater Austria

Let's say that ITTL, Franz starts establishing his goal of a federalized Austria-Hungary, but as he is working on this, he is assassinated, sparking World War One. With the Empire having been reformed, how might a natural breakup of the Nation look like?
 
Let's say that ITTL, Franz starts establishing his goal of a federalized Austria-Hungary, but as he is working on this, he is assassinated, sparking World War One. With the Empire having been reformed, how might a natural breakup of the Nation look like?


A frightful mess.

If the federal units follow ethnic lines, then some of them won't be viable as independent states. They'll be fighting tooth and nail to give themselves workable borders at the expense of their neighbours.
 
Think of the breakup of Yugoslavia but scale it up to a population of 50 to 90 million people. That was what Austria-Hungary was.

It would be bad.

However, just like Yugoslavia I can't see the world ignoring it. There would be some sort of intervention one way or another.
 
Any other ideas as to just what states might emerge on top? I'm thinking that Hungary has an obvious advantage here, as does Croatia. Might we see ethnic regions of former Austria join the nations of their identity? Such as Trentino and Trieste to Italy, German Austria to Germany and East Galicia to Ukraine to name a few?
 
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