Native Americans Survive due to Genetic Mutations

Oh for Christ's sake it's the same goddamn thing.

Oh for Christ's sake its not at all related. :rolleyes:

There are already five haplogroups within the Americas. The issue is that the unimaginatively named Group A makes up the majority of the population of the Americas IOTL. A POD that leads to Groups B, C, D & X, or some combination thereof, making up a greater percentage of the population already there will lead to more diversity within the population, without increasing total numbers.

No outside contact beyond what already happened IOTL.
No mass migrations beyond what already happened IOTL.

Now, I've outlined at least three possible variants to lead to this scenario. Two of them, I don't like, but I've put them out on the table to see what the community does with them. I don't have much hope for them though, so short of a minor miracle, then the third option is the only clear option.

Then why don't you read the original papers like I did?

Wow, look at that. Someone of this board who actually knows how to use Google ;) Don, I've provided you the information you need. Go out and do some research yourself, then if you have an educated opinion contrary to what's been outlined here, please share.

Again, Alex has made a strong case via different route than what I've laid out, but he is correct.

I'd really like to move beyond this incessant arguing about butterflies, I feel like we've already gone over that enough for four or five threads. Does anyone have anything to say about the scenario itself? How does it play out, what changes, and how, and why? What stays the same?
 
That if America remains geopolitically isolated from Europe...


I'll explain again that more time American cultures and civilizations are allowed to flourish or the more contact that occurs between America and other populations the more chances that the isolation you're talking about occurs. As the time or contacts increase, the chance for and length of isolation decrease.

That seeing as you appear to be invoking the most extreme form of the chaos theory butterfly effect...

I'm invoking nothing but increased chances and probabilities If there's more time and more contact, the chances that the isolation remains up through the OTL's time of contact in the 15th Century decreases.

To explain the first one perhaps more clearly, I have developed a theory...

A theory?

About butterflies?

In alternate history?

We're done here. :rollseyes:
 
Charles Mann and Jared Diamond are popularizers, but that shouldn't be considered a bad name.

Another option would be to have the Second or Third Waves of Migration into the Americas happen just upon the heels of the First Wave. This allows for far more diversity, and a stronger resistance at the population level to diseases, especially newly encountered diseases. However, this would lead to the Inuit/Eskimos of the Americas to more closely resemble the rest of the native population. On the whole though, this is a considerable trade-off to our advantage IMHO, simply due to the fact that the northern tundras of IOTL Canada are never going to play a major role in world affairs, even ITTL.

Did the third wave of migration predominate genetically in samples of the modern genetic Amerindian population? Since they do not, and among the waves (besides the people of tierra del Fuego) there is a mixture of all the waves, it seems like moving the third wave earlier (which is pretty odd because then it would just be called part of the first wave) would decrease genetic variability. To me it seems like the first wave and second wave had time to develop the diversity you are talking about, and they are genetically just dominant as the third.


If you can't add anything reasonable to the discussion, then please don't join in at all. This is a simple lesson that we all should learn at childhood.

And you don't have to respond so indignantly in your posts either. Don Lardo's point was presented respectfully and his question was legitimate.


Diseases evolve faster than Human resistance, so even the more resistant Europeans did die of small pox. But the point is that resistance is developed only by contact with that disease, and being the child of a survivor. Having greater genetic variation won't cover the deadly array of european diseases. Especially not enough to as you claim reduce the death count from 95% to 50%.
 
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A POD that leads to Groups B, C, D & X, or some combination thereof, making up a greater percentage of the population already there will lead to more diversity within the population, without increasing total numbers.


So, as you've said, no outside contact beyond what already happened IOTL and no mass migrations beyond what already happened IOTL.

However, you'll have differently timed mass migrations than what already happened in the OTL. What is going to cause that? Why were the OTL mass migrations staggered in the manner they were?

Also, with differently timed mass migrations, will the population of the Americas be higher sooner? Or lower later?

What will be the effects of differently timed mass migrations beyond the diversity of haploid groups within the native population?
 
IOTL, the mass migrations from North-East Asian into the Americas came in mass migration waves due to the Ice Ages. At several different points, a 'path' opened up between the glaciers of the Canadian Shield and the Canadian Rockies, allowing the incoming populations to move down from Alaska into the Americas. There's obviously more to it, and I'd suggest you reading more on the subject, but its obviously too much for one post on an alt. history board, so that's it in a tin cup.

Now, the land bridge between Alaska and Asia broke down long before some of these glacial openings, so for a long time the requisite populations to increase the diversity of haplogroups are doing nothing but sit in Alaska, eking out a living along the coasts. So again - getting those peoples into the Americas sooner increases diversity without increasing the total numbers.
 
I'll explain again that more time American cultures and civilizations are allowed to flourish or the more contact that occurs between America and other populations the more chances that the isolation you're talking about occurs. As the time or contacts increase, the chance for and length of isolation decrease.

OK, so a group of cultures that were not usualy seafaring in OTL and even when they were lacked both the technology and the skills to build large vessels capable of travelling across the Atlantic will sudenly do so ITTL? The butterflys required are that the American civilizations:

1. Invent mettalurgy
2. Develop a seafaring tradition
3. Have enough time to get up to Galleon levels of shipbuilding
4. Have the inclination to go exploring across the Atlantic rather than just up and down the coasts (this is the big one)
5. Create the skills and technology to actually survive a sea voyage without sinking.

This seems a bit extreme. Especially considering civilization in Mesoamerica didn't start until 2000 years after that of Europe, and then kept on collapsing until 200AD. Even worse in South America. And that's with contact from those great seafarers the Polynesians.

I'm invoking nothing but increased chances and probabilities If there's more time and more contact, the chances that the isolation remains up through the OTL's time of contact in the 15th Century decreases.

Fair enough, but this contact is likely to be from the people of the Kuril islands, or the Polynesians, neither of which had an impact on East Asia until the 13th Century (by which time we can say the period of contact is long over) and even then had an impact on Europe that was non-existent until the 18th-19th Centuries (heck, Japan conqured the Ainu and their effect on Japanese trade and politics essentially dates from the 1600s.)

If we postulate a second or third wave arriving in America within a few millenia of the first, then their effect on European genetics is non-existent because the migratory patterns split off between Europe and Asia much earlier on, and the effect on Asian genetics is also negligable as the balance there is barely effected. Going onto butterflies from there and either human history is entirely unrecognisable, in which case we can kiss any notion of being able to speculate on the effects of the POD goodbye, or the effects will be so negligable as to be non-existent. As the second one is the only one that allows us to actually look at the effects of the PoD, it is the one that we must choose.

A theory?

About butterflies?

In alternate history?

We're done here. :rollseyes:

OK, call it a refinement or a development or a guideline for application if you prefer. It is quite different from the conventional theory, and to so clearly dismiss it without reading it is the equivilent of dismissing the quantum theory of atomic structure because it a mere refinement of the older nuclear theory, or to dismiss relativity because it simply refines the Newtonian worldview.
 
This is something to bear in mind when thinking about this topic. The list below isn't extensive, merely the major players, IMHO. Also note that among them, only the Inka and Mexica would constitute an 'empire' in the classic Afro-Eurasian sense, and only the Tarascan would constitute a territorial 'state.' The Haudenosaunee and the Muisca are both loose confederations. The rest are tribal kingdoms and city-states, united only by common culture and language.

And yes, this is a self-bump to try and bring interest back to this topic.

So, considering the political layout during this period (at least as far as 'major' polities), what happens ITTL if these societies are better able to resist European conquest, especially in the context of European disease (Colombian Exchange).

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