"Native American Germs"...how bad to Europe?

Question: assuming Native Americans get their own homegrown nasty germies and pandemic(s) (assuming some long-term native domestication or "llama disease", for instance), how much would this affect the Old World?

IIRC, Old Worldies had more than just resistance to specific diseases from their long domestication-urbanization societies, but had in general better immune systems overall.

I assume this means they're more resistant to New World pandemics than the Native Americans were to Old World disease OTL. Does this mean a "mere" ~30% casualty rate?

And on the NW side, does this mean the NatAms have a better overall disease resistance than OTL, notably lowering death rates from OW diseases from OTL?
 
IIRC there's still disagreement on Syph's origins, but let's go with the NW theory...

Now, as to the point of the thread :)p) let's say specifically a readily communicable disease (respiratory, non-intimate contact, shared items, etc.) ala Smallpox. Something fast-acting and quickly fatal or debilitating.

In other words something that could make a real immediate and noticeable difference if/when it reaches the OW.
 
I did a thread on this a while ago, and back then the main reply seemed to suggest that NA wasn't really a good place to develop diseases, because of the lack of urban population centres and such.

Still, it could porentially develop in South America, and then spread northwards gradually...
 
I did a thread on this a while ago, and back then the main reply seemed to suggest that NA wasn't really a good place to develop diseases, because of the lack of urban population centres and such.

Yea, I read Diamond too. ;) I like GG&S and think it added a lot to the debate, but too many people parrot it like it was scripture.

Besides, the point of this thread (that ever-elusive point :() is to discuss such possibilities and analyze the factors.

Still, it could porentially develop in South America, and then spread northwards gradually...

That's one possibility I considered (see my "llama disease" comment).

Also, if we assume some early domesticated animals (the paleohorse ala another thread on this board or the bison in the Miss. Rice TL) we could end up with a different social dynamic in NA as well. Maybe the Mound Builders become larger/more urbanized than OTL.
 
Yea, I read Diamond too. ;) I like GG&S and think it added a lot to the debate, but too many people parrot it like it was scripture.

Besides, the point of this thread (that ever-elusive point :() is to discuss such possibilities and analyze the factors.
Actually, I've only read reviews of it. :p

That's one possibility I considered (see my "llama disease" comment).

Also, if we assume some early domesticated animals (the paleohorse ala another thread on this board or the bison in the Miss. Rice TL) we could end up with a different social dynamic in NA as well. Maybe the Mound Builders become larger/more urbanized than OTL.
Hmmm. A more urban native population, combined with diseases that affect the colonists and possibly spread back to Europe? We might see the Americas colonised more like Africa and India, rather than the mass migrations. This "llama disease" taking the place of malaria in Africa.
 
Europeans have far more genetic diversity than all of the native peoples of the Americas so the effects would be far less devastating than the pandemics which plagued the Americas. Also, the journey across the Atlantic took many weeks so any infected Europeans making a return journey would die before they reached Europe.
 
Europeans have far more genetic diversity than all of the native peoples of the Americas so the effects would be far less devastating than the pandemics which plagued the Americas. Also, the journey across the Atlantic took many weeks so any infected Europeans making a return journey would die before they reached Europe.

If that's the case, how did smallpox and the like get to the Americas from Eurasia?
 
If that's the case, how did smallpox and the like get to the Americas from Eurasia?

Often by sub-clinical infections. A sailor could be infected with say, measles and still be capable of working. In the virgin field populatio he transmitted the disease to many thousands could die.

The same would not work in reverse. A virulent infectious disease probably wouldn't remain sub clinical in non-immune Europeans, so the infectious would die out, unless substantially numbers of Amerinidans got involved in trans-Atlantic travel.
 
One of the first thing Europeans did was capture some Indians and bring them back to the Old World to show them off. One of these captured Indians could be a carrier.

Indian were also frequently impressed into the crew of ships, and one of these indian sailors could be a carrier.

Or if the llama disease (or Guinea Pig disease) had a long incubation period followed by a long period where it was contagious then it could easily make its way to the Old World.
 
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