March 7, 1950: A Chinese delegation arrives in the Tibetan capital of Lhasa with instructions from Chiang and his Kuomintang. The lead negotiator, Vice-President Li Zongren, presents what will become known as the Twin Proposals. They are to make the Republic of China responsible for Tibet's foreign, military, and domestic policies, and to permit the stationing of Chinese troops in Tibet. (1) The Tibetans, however, are unwilling to simply hand their country over to Chiang, and realise that they may soon have a war on their hands.
June 1950: North Korean dictator Kim Il-sung begins to send frankly irritating requests to Moscow, asking permission to invade the South. Stalin, however, refuses. He knows that with China divided between a strong pro-American south and a weak pro-Soviet north, a Korean war could rapidly escalate in the West's favour if Chiang decides to step in. That would in all probability prove the death-knell for Mao's regime, which would necessitate Soviet intervention. And if Soviet and Chinese troops came to blows, nuclear war with America could all too easily begin. (2) Plus, Stalin is feeling generally more cautious after almost losing China completely. Kim recognises that he will be on his own if he invades, and opts to concentrate on ruling just the North for the moment, although he still dreams of a day when he can unify Korea under his regime.
October 6, 1950: KMT general Li Mi leads forty thousand Chinese troops into Tibet in the early hours of the morning. Morning newspapers the next day proclaim the start of the "Campaign to Suppress Tibetan Separatist Movements"(镇压藏独运动, Zhènyā cángdú yùndòng), as the regime's propaganda puts it. The Nationalist army gives a generally better account of itself than in previous operations, although that likely has more to do with the fact that only 8,000 Tibetans are available to defend the country. At the thirteen-day Battle of Chamdo, the Tibetans are routed.
In the aftermath of the Battle of Chamdo, the regent steps down and the 14th Dalai Lama is placed in power. Chiang promises autonomy for Tibet if it will agree to join China. For example, he promises that the Dalai Lama will be allowed to retain power.
May 23, 1951: After months of Chinese-led negotiations, the Tibetans finally cave and accept annexation into the Republic of China. Tibetan culture is allowed to survive for the moment, but Chiang plans eventual sinicisation...
Because of Cold War politics, the USA is forced to officially back the annexation of Tibet. Privately, however, many in the US government are furious at this blatant violation of a sovereign country's independence. ROC ambassador Zhou Shukai is told in no uncertain terms that the USA cannot and will not accept this, and several angry cables are sent back and forth between Washington and Nanjing. Sino-US relations become colder, and several US companies leave Shenzhen...
July 1951: The Shenzhen Labour Protests begin. Workers in a British-owned textiles company launch a strike against the low wages and poor conditions, which rapidly spread to other enterprises. By the end of the month, perhaps half a million labourers are protesting against foreigners having such a large stake in the Chinese economy. Chiang is fearful that the protests will spread to the other Open Investment Zones, and orders police to force people back to work.
Mao, meanwhile, considers the possibility that the protesters could respond positively to his own ideology. At some point in the month of July, several thousand Communist pamphlets are smuggled into Shenzhen, exhorting the protesters to "study the works of Marx and of Mao Zedong-ism." However, little comes of this, and police crackdowns mean that by the autumn, a tenacious peace returns to Shenzhen. A few companies make minor improvements to the conditions and wages, but little else changes. No-one is interested in a socialist uprising... yet.
1951: Throughout 1950 and 1951, conditions within Japan deteriorate. (3) The economy proves sluggish, with few jobs created. Although the people are glad that the Americans have helped to rebuild the country, memories of starvation and of bombing remain high. Some Japanese begin to look towards more extreme ideologies, searching for a reason for their poverty. The Leftist Socialist Party, the most radical party in Japan, begins to gain traction amongst Japanese voters in certain sectors- namely, those who are unemployed and/or have been connected with industrial work in the past. Secretly, the Minpei (people's militia), affiliated with the left-socialists, begins to operate in major Japanese cities. They blame Japan's current economic ills on the Americans and on capitalism and call for the expulsion of both. They keep a low profile for the moment, but grow in strength...
February 1952: The Hundred Flowers Campaign (4) begins in the People's Republic of North China. Mao orders the CCP to "let a hundred flowers bloom", inviting dissent of the regime. This serves two goals. One is to create a safety valve for the people, and the other is to let those who disagree with Mao come out in the open, where they can be destroyed. After two years, the opponents of communism have revealed themselves, and the crackdown begins. Many leading intellectuals across the People's Republic are executed, many more flee to China. Chiang is more than willing to accept refugees, and this improves his standing in American eyes.
November 3, 1952: Republican candidate Dwight D. Eisenhower, celebrated World War II commander, wins the presidency. His vice-president is Harold Stassen (5).
1950-1954: Low-level nationalist insurrection in Vietnam continues. Although the Viet Minh has largely collapsed, its place has been taken by the Dânquân Giảiphóng (Liberation Militia), led by Duc Dang, a veteran of the first war. His operations are concentrated in the far south, and the Saigon region is prone to guerilla attacks against national and French troops. In the Chinese sphere of influence, the status quo is generally calmer, as a second Chinese intervention would have serious consequences for Vietnam.
French domestic politics mean that Paris cannot send in more troops to reinforce its proxy in Vietnam. There is fear in the West that Stalin or Mao will try to get their feet in the door and fund a communist revolution in Vietnam. Chiang, however, spies an opportunity. On May 2, 1954, the Chinese government issues the Kunming Declaration. This declaration states that in the event of Communist unrest in Southeast Asia, the ROC will "employ all forces possible to counteract the insurgency." Chiang's motives for issuing this declaration are twofold: on the one hand, he seeks to remain in the West's good books, and he also wants Vietnam as his proxy, not France's.
The declaration is greeted with mixed reactions in the West- while losing Vietnam to the Communists would be bad, Washington wants Paris, not Nanjing, to remain the dominant regional power.
March 5, 1955: Joseph Stalin dies of a heart attack in Moscow. (6) Conspiracy theories abound as to why, with some saying that he was killed by NKVD chief Lavrenti Beria, others that he was poisoned by his Jewish doctor. These, however, are just conspiracy theories. A power struggle grips the Soviet leadership for the next eighteen months.
By January of 1957, however, Nikita Khrushchev has cemented his power as the strongest leader of the USSR- Beria is shot in an underground prison in December 1955.
Khrushchev advocates for a policy of "peaceful coexistence"- namely, focussing less on armed conflict between East and West and more on improving living standards in the Communist world to convince countries to align themselves with Moscow.
August 3, 1955: "Day of the Red Sword." That is how later Japanese governments and historians will refer to this date. Members of the Minpei spark riots in all the major cities of Japan against the Americans and the government. The American garrison is swift in reacting, but the rebels have been equipped with an abundance of Soviet weaponry, and the conflict rapidly escalates.
Two days later, President Eisenhower addresses the nation, declaring a state of national emergency and claiming that "the Japanese people are being forced by a radical minority to choose between peace or socialism, and that it is our duty to restore peace to the Home Islands." He authorises a 55,000-strong reinforcement for the Eighth Army, which is sent off from San Francisco and Los Angeles throughout the autumn.
However, the rebels are adroit and skilled. The USSR smuggles in large amounts of equipment, and the People's Republic of North China and North Korea both send in smaller amounts of aid.
August 15, 1955: The August 15 Proclamation is issued by the socialist rebels in Japan, declaring that "a bright new dawn is ahead for the land of the rising sun", and exhorting the Japanese people to "embrace the inevitable, joyous, socialist future."
Over the next few months, Japanese rebels take almost all of Hokkaido and a sizeable chunk of western Honshu, as well as smaller pockets of territory elsewhere. Property in rebel-held areas is collectivised, and all able-bodied men are forced to serve in the Japanese Red Army. Meanwhile, in the US/government-controlled areas, martial law is imposed and the 1947 constitution suspended. Anyone suspected of being a Communist is executed, and there are cases of US troops executing innocent Japanese civilians on charges of being a spy. (7)
January 1956: At a CCP conference in Harbin, Mao unveils his plans for the Second Five Year Plan, known to history as the Great Leap Forward. Throughout the People's Republic over the next few years, all farms are collectivised. Peasants are forced to move onto huge collective farms, which resemble labour camps more than anything else. The government becomes responsible for distributing rations to them, and largely fails in doing this.
Another part of the Great Leap Forward is breakneck speed industrialisation- Mao hopes to see the PRNC become a major industrial player within fifteen years. (8)
The whole thing is a massive failure, as the government does not distribute the rations properly. A whopping 4.3 million die of starvation between 1956 and 1960, in a country of approximately 86 million people. The hardest hit region of all is mountainous Yan'an, which has already suffered from Communist rule during World War II.
1956: Throughout 1956, the territory controlled by the Japanese insurgents gradually shrinks. US troops manage to capture all of the main cities save Sapporo, and increasingly focus on anti-guerilla warfare. Many Japanese have lost their enthusiasm for the revolution, as it has clearly failed to solve the country's economic problems. Nonetheless, to many, the image of US bombers pounding Japanese cities and of American and Japanese troops clashing evokes hateful memories from World War II, and a generation of Japanese learns to revile the US as the WWII generation does. Even those fighting for the government are disheartened.
October 31, 1956: President Eisenhower discusses in a conference with his cabinet the possibility of using an atomic bomb to quell the uprising in Japan by launching a nuclear attack on Sapporo. What follows is one of the most shameful episodes of his whole presidency, which will become known as the "Halloween Scandal." The presidential elections are only four days away, and Eisenhower does not want to do anything dramatic. Although he does not come out and say it, he plans to use the nuclear option if he wins re-election.
November 4, 1956: The American public, not knowing what the consequences of their actions are, vote to grant Eisenhower and Stassen another four years.
True to his word, ten days later an atomic bomb is dropped on Sapporo. (9) The city is devastated, and millions of Japanese are killed. Following the bombing of Sapporo, the communist revolt largely unravels, and by the end of the year a tenuous peace holds in Japan.
Eisenhower pays a heavy price for his actions. With three of their cities the target of US nuclear weapons, the Japanese- even Emperor Hirohito- come to revile the USA. The Eighth Army continues martial law, and the 1947 constitution is "suspended." Plans for a CIA coup against Hirohito are drawn up, but are shelved for the moment. Eisenhower's opponents dub him the "Butcher of Sapporo", a term which comes into fashion both in Japan and in Communist circles.
July 2-August 1, 1957: The Yingkou Conference opens in the PRNC port city of that name. (10) At the conference, Mao discusses the Great Leap Forward with his top circle, including Liu Shaoqi, Zhou Enlai, Lin Biao, and Peng Dehuai. At the conference, Mao turns on Peng Dehuai for criticising the Leap, saying that he is "only fifty metres away from being a rightist". Peng is ousted and replaced as defence minister by Lin Biao, and is subsequently executed.
February 25, 1958: Nikita Khruschev gives the "Secret Speech" denouncing Stalin's personality cult, calling him a "bloody tyrant." Mao does not take kindly to this speech, seeing it as a threat to his dominance...
March 10, 1959: Tibet erupts in revolt against Chinese rule. For nearly two weeks, Lhasa is under the control of rebels before the ROC army arrives and quells the uprising. The Dalai Lama flees to India, and Tibetan self-rule is de facto abolished. Sinicisation is attempted in Tibet to better integrate the territory.
Peng's downfall sets a precedent- namely, that criticism of Mao or his policies will be met with death. The Great Leap Forward will be abolished in 1960, but Mao's appetite for demonstrating his power has not yet been satisfied. However, his opponents have been strengthened as a result of his failure. The 1950s were a turbulent decade for East Asia, but more is yet to come...
(1) This is an almost exact mirror of OTL
(2) The reason that Stalin gave Kim permission to invade in OTL was because he knew that Chinese troops could fight any Western force and exhaust it, and that Soviet troops would not be needed. Here, since Chiang boasts the manpower advantage over Mao, the USSR would be forced to intervene in Korea, which could spark WWIII.
(3) The Korean War proved a major boon to the Japanese economy in OTL and helped spark an economic recovery. Not only does that not occur in TTL, but the Nationalist Chinese economy dominates East Asia, meaning that Japan's economy has no means of developing.
(4) OTL, except since Mao's regime was founded in 1946, not 1949, it occurs three years ahead of schedule.
(5) In OTL, fear of Communism meant that Eisenhower chose Richard Nixon as his vice-presidential candidate, owing to his anti-communist credentials. In TTL, since China does not fall to communism, the fear of communism is slightly less, and Stassen is chosen as VP.
(6) It's accepted by many that Korean War-related stress helped to kill Stalin. Since the Korean War does not occur in TTL, I give him a few more years. This is why the Secret Speech occurs in 1958.
(7) Based off of the actions committed by some US troops in Vietnam OTL
(8) For a country encompassing Manchuria and the mountains of Yan'an, catching up to Britain in fifteen years is too ambitious even in Mao's mind.
(9) Loosely based off of the US threat to nuke Saskatoon in TL-191. I said that there was almost no taboo against nuclear weapons in TTL!
(10) The Lushan Conference, except since Lushan is in the ROC, I chose Yingkou.