Chapter One
Baldrick
Banned
In this TL, the point of divergence comes when Chiang Kai-shek ignores George Marshall's call for a cease-fire and continues the offensive against Mao and his Communists in Manchuria. Note: I have no Chinese-language skills whatsoever, so I am reliant upon Google Translate. If I make a mistake here with translation, please leave a comment saying so! Enjoy.
September 2, 1945: Imperial Japan surrenders, marking the end of the Pacific War (and WWII). Large swathes of China, including Manchuria, are occupied by the Soviet Union. From the mountain base in northern Shaanxi province, Yan'an, Mao Zedong plans to take over much of this area.
The rest of China is ruled by Chiang Kai-shek and his Nationalists (KMT). The KMT carried the brunt of most of the fighting against the Japanese during the war, and is as such exhausted. Chiang tells the Japanese troops which have not yet surrendered to await the arrival of Nationalist troops and not surrender to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Both sides make grabs for territory- the occupied regions of Hunan, Hubei, Guangxi, Zhejiang, and Hebei provinces are captured by Chiang's Nationalists, while the CCP takes control of Shandong. However, the CCP also has control of a number of bases left over from the war in these areas, formed by Communist partisans equipped and dispatched by Mao. These cells have a combined population in the millions, and will cause the Nationalists much headache in the coming conflict...
October 10, 1945: The Double Tenth Agreement (the tenth day of the tenth month) is signed in Chongqing, the Nationalist capital. This agreement has Mao accept Chiang as the leader of China, in exchange for which he is granted a sphere of control centred around Yan'an.
Neither side plans to abide by the treaty for too long, however. While Mao is in Chongqing, US forces land in northern China to accept the surrender of the Japanese garrisons of Tianjin and Beijing, which are then promptly handed over to the Nationalists. The US Navy also begins operations to ferry Nationalist troops to Manchuria as a prelude to fighting the CCP for control of the territory. American troops are stationed in key Chinese cities, and US money is funnelled to the KMT. The Soviets, meanwhile, direct captured Japanese weaponry and equipment to the Communists. Both sides fully expect conflict to resume in the near future....
October 1945: The Second Chinese Civil War begins as Mao launches military operations centred around the Great Wall of China to keep the Nationalist forces out of Manchuria (itself still under Soviet occupation). The Communist commander in the Manchuria front is Lin Biao, while his Nationalist counterpart is named Tu Yuming. Communist reinforcements arrive from the Shandong Peninsula, while the US Navy sends squadrons close to the Manchurian coastline and ferries in a handful of KMT troops.
The campaign, however, plays out rather inauspiciously for the Communists. Their only military experience has been as guerilla fighters: first as quasi-bandits during the 1920s, then on the Long March, then during World War II, when under Mao's orders they studiously avoided combat with the Japanese. Although this means that their forces are far less fatigued than Chiang's, it also means that they have far less experience in the field. By contrast, the Nationalists, while lacking in morale and tired from eight years of combat, are experienced and have access to relatively high-quality military equipment, the majority of which was given to them by the US during the Second World War, but some of which was taken from the Japanese as they surrendered city-by-city on China's east coast.
Morale is also a serious problem for the Communist troops. Almost all of them have been viciously indoctrinated in Yan'an, with Maoist "self-criticisms" par for the course. Life is extremely stressful for them, and many choose to abandon the fight and defect. In addition, Mao cannot count on the support of a hundred per cent of the peasantry: although many are attracted to his revolutionary ideology, a large number of Manchurian peasants back Chiang, as they have just come out from under fourteen years of Japanese occupation and desire peace. These peasants have missed the worst corruption of the KMT regime, and as such see Chiang as far more legitimate than Mao.
All of these factors combine to mean that the Communists cannot keep the Nationalist forces from entering Manchuria. At this stage, a divergence over strategy in Manchuria emerges in the Communist camp. Mao is insistent upon holding Harbin, Shenyang, and Changchun, the three major cities of the region. Lin Biao and Liu Shaoqi (Mao's deputy) advocate for abandoning the three cities and establishing a firm base along the borders with the USSR, North Korea, and Mongolia, and standing primarily on the defensive, allowing the Nationalists to weaken themselves in futile attacks while the Communists receive aid from Russia. However, Mao's view prevails. The results are disastrous for the CCP, which over the months of October and November loses much of southern Manchuria.
October 24, 1945: The United Nations is formed. The UN Security Council consists of the USA, Britain, France, the USSR, and Chiang's Nationalists.
November 17, 1945: A cable arrives for Mao from Moscow, ordering the Communist leader to follow Lin and Liu in abandoning the cities and building up a base on the border. The shock of what he sees as a betrayal nearly sends Mao into a nervous breakdown, but he goes ahead, aware that he cannot afford to be abandoned by his patron.
February 1946: The minutes of the 1944 Yalta Agreement are finally made public to the world. In them, the Tsarist-era privileges in China claimed by Stalin are revealed to the world. These consist basically of an economic sphere of influence in the north and west, including recognition of Outer Mongolia's independence (and thus its status as a Soviet puppet), the independence of the Second East Turkestan Republic (a small Muslim Communist state carved out of Xinjiang province by a Soviet-backed uprising in 1944), and Soviet economic influence in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. The publication of the treaty causes widespread anti-Soviet feeling across China, and the people's opinion of communism drops, meaning that their views on the Nationalists improve. Lin Biao summed it up best: "People are saying that the 8th Route Army shouldn't be fighting the government army... They regard the Nationalists as the Central Government." (1)
March 4-5, 1946: US general George Marshall visits Yan'an. Marshall, himself quite liberal, hopes to see a joint CCP-KMT coalition rule China. He is swayed by Mao's promises that the Communists will peacefully accept their role as second fiddle to Chiang, and will forsake armed warfare. Mao also claims that the CCP are not real communists like those in Eastern Europe, and are certainly not stooges of the USSR like the Eastern European parties. Instead, Mao portrays his force as left-wing agrarian reformers committed to fighting corruption and poverty and establishing a new China which will chart its own path through the world. Marshall returns to Washington confident that he can end once and for all the conflict in China, which has lasted two decades in one form or another (going back to the Northern Expedition).
May 3, 1946: Approximately ten months after first entering China, the last Soviet Red Army units are withdrawn. They coordinate with Mao so as to allow the Communists to take over what they occupied while keeping Chiang's Nationalists shut out. The vast majority of Manchuria is now under direct Communist rule, save those parts occupied by Chiang.
This decision proves fatal for the Communists, however, as it means that their source of aid- the Soviets- is now further away than before, meaning that they are on their own. Manchuria is conquered within weeks, and by June Shenyang, Dalian, Jilin, and Changchun have all fallen to the Nationalists. On June 3, Mao orders Lin Biao to evacuate Harbin (the last major Manchurian city under Communist rule) and focus on establishing bases on the Soviet, North Korean, and Mongolian borders.
June 4, 1946: US Secretary of State George Marshall proposes a cease-fire in the conflict. He demands that Chiang agree to a two-week armistice with Mao, on pain of having all American equipment and aid revoked.
Marshall's ultimatum sparks fierce debate amongst the Nationalists. The prospect of being without American aid or equipment is deeply unappetising, and as such some in the Nationalist camp advocate for accepting the Marshall ceasefire. The most prominent of these figures is Wei Lihuang, who Chiang suspects is a Communist sleeper agent. However, Chiang reasons that the Communists are so close to defeat that even in the event that US aid is cut off, they can be crushed and it will be worth it. The Chinese Civil War will continue. (2) True to Marshall's threat, America stops loans to Nationalist banks and ends all shipments of military equipment to the KMT army.
June 8, 1946: After two days of fighting, Lin Biao is forced out of Harbin. Communist control in Manchuria now consists of a belt of territory wrapping around the Soviet-Mongolian-North Korean borders. Mao is forced to accept plans to "go over to guerilla warfare on a long-term basis".
In the Soviet Union, fears are aroused after the fall of Harbin that all of China will soon be under the rule of the hostile Nationalists. Stalin begins to prepare for the possibility of taking steps to secure Communist dominance of Northeast Asia...
June 14, 1946: Stalin's foreign minister Vyacheslav Molotov meets with Mongolian leader Khorloogiin Choibalsan to discuss "the possibility of the Mongolian People's Republic acquiring, at a certain date in the near future, a part or all of the region of Inner Mongolia." An Inner Mongolian provisional government is formed and plans to annex the region to Mongolia (itself a Soviet puppet) are prepared for execution.
July 5, 1946: Nationalist troops reach the Amur River (and Soviet border) opposite the Soviet town of Amurzet, dividing the Communist territory remaining in Manchuria in two. Chiang gives very strict orders not to cross the river, even in pursuit of retreating Communist forces. Two Nationalist soldiers- Ling Changfu and Zhuang Tsehai- who kill a Russian trader for his purse are executed following a court-martial. In spite of these precautions, Chiang is sure that the Soviets will strike against him in the near future, especially as his border with the USSR grows almost by the day. Apollon Pietrow, the Soviet ambassador to Chiang, warns Nanjing (Chiang's capital) on the sixth that "the Soviet Union may be faced with no choice but to take action on behalf of Mao Zedong and to protect our own eastern provinces if troops of the Chinese Central Government are not withdrawn from all positions along the Soviet border within one week." Chiang decides to take a massive gamble and continues the offensive against Mao. The Red Army, meanwhile, has been building up on the Chinese border for a second invasion, with many veteran units of 1945 being shunted eastwards.
July 14, 1946: At 12:15 AM, fifteen minutes after Pietrow's ultimatum expires, Soviet Field Marshal Rodion Malinovsky leads the newly created Manchurian Front (3) into China. The front between the Nationalists and Soviets is approximately 340 miles long and runs between Da Hagan Ling and Yichun, both of which are just barely under Nationalist occupation. 750,000 troops are used in this operation, along with 1200 T-34 tanks and 580 IS-2 tanks. Nationalist forces, while superior to the guerilla armies of the CCP, are in no state to fight fresh, superbly equipped Soviet troops who considerably outnumber them in the theatre. Chiang orders a general retreat through Manchuria, hoping to stretch the Soviet supply columns and lure Malinovsky into a trap. However, he knows that the odds are now very long indeed...
To be continued....
Thoughts?
(1) Quote taken from the OTL Mao: The Unknown Story by Jung Chang and John Halliday, page 285.
(2) POD, obviously in OTL Chiang agreed to the ceasefire
(3) Front being the Soviet term for army group
September 2, 1945: Imperial Japan surrenders, marking the end of the Pacific War (and WWII). Large swathes of China, including Manchuria, are occupied by the Soviet Union. From the mountain base in northern Shaanxi province, Yan'an, Mao Zedong plans to take over much of this area.
The rest of China is ruled by Chiang Kai-shek and his Nationalists (KMT). The KMT carried the brunt of most of the fighting against the Japanese during the war, and is as such exhausted. Chiang tells the Japanese troops which have not yet surrendered to await the arrival of Nationalist troops and not surrender to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Both sides make grabs for territory- the occupied regions of Hunan, Hubei, Guangxi, Zhejiang, and Hebei provinces are captured by Chiang's Nationalists, while the CCP takes control of Shandong. However, the CCP also has control of a number of bases left over from the war in these areas, formed by Communist partisans equipped and dispatched by Mao. These cells have a combined population in the millions, and will cause the Nationalists much headache in the coming conflict...
October 10, 1945: The Double Tenth Agreement (the tenth day of the tenth month) is signed in Chongqing, the Nationalist capital. This agreement has Mao accept Chiang as the leader of China, in exchange for which he is granted a sphere of control centred around Yan'an.
Neither side plans to abide by the treaty for too long, however. While Mao is in Chongqing, US forces land in northern China to accept the surrender of the Japanese garrisons of Tianjin and Beijing, which are then promptly handed over to the Nationalists. The US Navy also begins operations to ferry Nationalist troops to Manchuria as a prelude to fighting the CCP for control of the territory. American troops are stationed in key Chinese cities, and US money is funnelled to the KMT. The Soviets, meanwhile, direct captured Japanese weaponry and equipment to the Communists. Both sides fully expect conflict to resume in the near future....
October 1945: The Second Chinese Civil War begins as Mao launches military operations centred around the Great Wall of China to keep the Nationalist forces out of Manchuria (itself still under Soviet occupation). The Communist commander in the Manchuria front is Lin Biao, while his Nationalist counterpart is named Tu Yuming. Communist reinforcements arrive from the Shandong Peninsula, while the US Navy sends squadrons close to the Manchurian coastline and ferries in a handful of KMT troops.
The campaign, however, plays out rather inauspiciously for the Communists. Their only military experience has been as guerilla fighters: first as quasi-bandits during the 1920s, then on the Long March, then during World War II, when under Mao's orders they studiously avoided combat with the Japanese. Although this means that their forces are far less fatigued than Chiang's, it also means that they have far less experience in the field. By contrast, the Nationalists, while lacking in morale and tired from eight years of combat, are experienced and have access to relatively high-quality military equipment, the majority of which was given to them by the US during the Second World War, but some of which was taken from the Japanese as they surrendered city-by-city on China's east coast.
Morale is also a serious problem for the Communist troops. Almost all of them have been viciously indoctrinated in Yan'an, with Maoist "self-criticisms" par for the course. Life is extremely stressful for them, and many choose to abandon the fight and defect. In addition, Mao cannot count on the support of a hundred per cent of the peasantry: although many are attracted to his revolutionary ideology, a large number of Manchurian peasants back Chiang, as they have just come out from under fourteen years of Japanese occupation and desire peace. These peasants have missed the worst corruption of the KMT regime, and as such see Chiang as far more legitimate than Mao.
All of these factors combine to mean that the Communists cannot keep the Nationalist forces from entering Manchuria. At this stage, a divergence over strategy in Manchuria emerges in the Communist camp. Mao is insistent upon holding Harbin, Shenyang, and Changchun, the three major cities of the region. Lin Biao and Liu Shaoqi (Mao's deputy) advocate for abandoning the three cities and establishing a firm base along the borders with the USSR, North Korea, and Mongolia, and standing primarily on the defensive, allowing the Nationalists to weaken themselves in futile attacks while the Communists receive aid from Russia. However, Mao's view prevails. The results are disastrous for the CCP, which over the months of October and November loses much of southern Manchuria.
October 24, 1945: The United Nations is formed. The UN Security Council consists of the USA, Britain, France, the USSR, and Chiang's Nationalists.
November 17, 1945: A cable arrives for Mao from Moscow, ordering the Communist leader to follow Lin and Liu in abandoning the cities and building up a base on the border. The shock of what he sees as a betrayal nearly sends Mao into a nervous breakdown, but he goes ahead, aware that he cannot afford to be abandoned by his patron.
February 1946: The minutes of the 1944 Yalta Agreement are finally made public to the world. In them, the Tsarist-era privileges in China claimed by Stalin are revealed to the world. These consist basically of an economic sphere of influence in the north and west, including recognition of Outer Mongolia's independence (and thus its status as a Soviet puppet), the independence of the Second East Turkestan Republic (a small Muslim Communist state carved out of Xinjiang province by a Soviet-backed uprising in 1944), and Soviet economic influence in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. The publication of the treaty causes widespread anti-Soviet feeling across China, and the people's opinion of communism drops, meaning that their views on the Nationalists improve. Lin Biao summed it up best: "People are saying that the 8th Route Army shouldn't be fighting the government army... They regard the Nationalists as the Central Government." (1)
March 4-5, 1946: US general George Marshall visits Yan'an. Marshall, himself quite liberal, hopes to see a joint CCP-KMT coalition rule China. He is swayed by Mao's promises that the Communists will peacefully accept their role as second fiddle to Chiang, and will forsake armed warfare. Mao also claims that the CCP are not real communists like those in Eastern Europe, and are certainly not stooges of the USSR like the Eastern European parties. Instead, Mao portrays his force as left-wing agrarian reformers committed to fighting corruption and poverty and establishing a new China which will chart its own path through the world. Marshall returns to Washington confident that he can end once and for all the conflict in China, which has lasted two decades in one form or another (going back to the Northern Expedition).
May 3, 1946: Approximately ten months after first entering China, the last Soviet Red Army units are withdrawn. They coordinate with Mao so as to allow the Communists to take over what they occupied while keeping Chiang's Nationalists shut out. The vast majority of Manchuria is now under direct Communist rule, save those parts occupied by Chiang.
This decision proves fatal for the Communists, however, as it means that their source of aid- the Soviets- is now further away than before, meaning that they are on their own. Manchuria is conquered within weeks, and by June Shenyang, Dalian, Jilin, and Changchun have all fallen to the Nationalists. On June 3, Mao orders Lin Biao to evacuate Harbin (the last major Manchurian city under Communist rule) and focus on establishing bases on the Soviet, North Korean, and Mongolian borders.
June 4, 1946: US Secretary of State George Marshall proposes a cease-fire in the conflict. He demands that Chiang agree to a two-week armistice with Mao, on pain of having all American equipment and aid revoked.
Marshall's ultimatum sparks fierce debate amongst the Nationalists. The prospect of being without American aid or equipment is deeply unappetising, and as such some in the Nationalist camp advocate for accepting the Marshall ceasefire. The most prominent of these figures is Wei Lihuang, who Chiang suspects is a Communist sleeper agent. However, Chiang reasons that the Communists are so close to defeat that even in the event that US aid is cut off, they can be crushed and it will be worth it. The Chinese Civil War will continue. (2) True to Marshall's threat, America stops loans to Nationalist banks and ends all shipments of military equipment to the KMT army.
June 8, 1946: After two days of fighting, Lin Biao is forced out of Harbin. Communist control in Manchuria now consists of a belt of territory wrapping around the Soviet-Mongolian-North Korean borders. Mao is forced to accept plans to "go over to guerilla warfare on a long-term basis".
In the Soviet Union, fears are aroused after the fall of Harbin that all of China will soon be under the rule of the hostile Nationalists. Stalin begins to prepare for the possibility of taking steps to secure Communist dominance of Northeast Asia...
June 14, 1946: Stalin's foreign minister Vyacheslav Molotov meets with Mongolian leader Khorloogiin Choibalsan to discuss "the possibility of the Mongolian People's Republic acquiring, at a certain date in the near future, a part or all of the region of Inner Mongolia." An Inner Mongolian provisional government is formed and plans to annex the region to Mongolia (itself a Soviet puppet) are prepared for execution.
July 5, 1946: Nationalist troops reach the Amur River (and Soviet border) opposite the Soviet town of Amurzet, dividing the Communist territory remaining in Manchuria in two. Chiang gives very strict orders not to cross the river, even in pursuit of retreating Communist forces. Two Nationalist soldiers- Ling Changfu and Zhuang Tsehai- who kill a Russian trader for his purse are executed following a court-martial. In spite of these precautions, Chiang is sure that the Soviets will strike against him in the near future, especially as his border with the USSR grows almost by the day. Apollon Pietrow, the Soviet ambassador to Chiang, warns Nanjing (Chiang's capital) on the sixth that "the Soviet Union may be faced with no choice but to take action on behalf of Mao Zedong and to protect our own eastern provinces if troops of the Chinese Central Government are not withdrawn from all positions along the Soviet border within one week." Chiang decides to take a massive gamble and continues the offensive against Mao. The Red Army, meanwhile, has been building up on the Chinese border for a second invasion, with many veteran units of 1945 being shunted eastwards.
July 14, 1946: At 12:15 AM, fifteen minutes after Pietrow's ultimatum expires, Soviet Field Marshal Rodion Malinovsky leads the newly created Manchurian Front (3) into China. The front between the Nationalists and Soviets is approximately 340 miles long and runs between Da Hagan Ling and Yichun, both of which are just barely under Nationalist occupation. 750,000 troops are used in this operation, along with 1200 T-34 tanks and 580 IS-2 tanks. Nationalist forces, while superior to the guerilla armies of the CCP, are in no state to fight fresh, superbly equipped Soviet troops who considerably outnumber them in the theatre. Chiang orders a general retreat through Manchuria, hoping to stretch the Soviet supply columns and lure Malinovsky into a trap. However, he knows that the odds are now very long indeed...
To be continued....
Thoughts?
(1) Quote taken from the OTL Mao: The Unknown Story by Jung Chang and John Halliday, page 285.
(2) POD, obviously in OTL Chiang agreed to the ceasefire
(3) Front being the Soviet term for army group
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