Nationalist victory in China: consequences for the Cold War?

[Vinization]

Like it says on the tin. What could've been some major effects of the Nationalists winning the Chinese Civil war?

Would the USSR focus most of its efforts in securing its empire in Europe, rather than trying to export communism to the Third World?

Would we still have a Korean War? If so, Kim Il Sung is likely toast since Mao saved his ass after the crushing defeat at the Incheon landing.

Would the US still undergo the Second Red Scare? If not, could its foreign policy be less paranoid, instead of them trying to undermine and then overthrow absolutely everyone who was even remotely pink, especially in Latin America? Would something like PBSuccess still happen, for example?

Could Harry Truman win a third term in 1952? My gut says no because of voter fatigue, but he would be a lot more popular without the loss of China to the reds and the Korean War.

 

[HelloThere]

I think a lot of people really overestimate how pro-American such a China would be. Even a Kuomintang-led China has no interest in French colonialism in Indochina and a Kuomintang-led China would not be more hostile to the USSR than Mao's China (just as a reminder: Soviet-Chinese relations in the 1960s were almost belligerent in nature ).

 

[Help]

I think a lot of people really overestimate how pro-American such a China would be. Even a Kuomintang-led China has no interest in French colonialism in Indochina and a Kuomintang-led China would not be more hostile to the USSR than Mao's China (just as a reminder: Soviet-Chinese relations in the 1960s were almost belligerent in nature ).

Also, didn't Stalin support the KMT against the Communists?

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

I think a lot of people really overestimate how pro-American such a China would be. Even a Kuomintang-led China has no interest in French colonialism in Indochina and a Kuomintang-led China would not be more hostile to the USSR than Mao's China (just as a reminder: Soviet-Chinese relations in the 1960s were almost belligerent in nature ).

They'd probably be pro-American until they got their military upgunned and had an independent nuclear deterrent, then go for a 'Third Way'-type dealio.

 

[Vinization]

I think a lot of people really overestimate how pro-American such a China would be. Even a Kuomintang-led China has no interest in French colonialism in Indochina and a Kuomintang-led China would not be more hostile to the USSR than Mao's China (just as a reminder: Soviet-Chinese relations in the 1960s were almost belligerent in nature ).

I don't doubt Chiang and Moscow would be on friendlier terms since they won't be arguing over who's the REAL communist, but for the US, or at least their public opinion, that is still better than a Red China.

 

[David T]

As I've written here before, the notion that a GMD China is going to be an ally of the US is by no means self-evident. Chiang tried to get along with the USSR as well as the US as long as he could. He only gave up when it was apparent that the Soviets were committed to a CCP victory. It seems to me perfectly plausible that a victorious Chiang Kai-shek would try to play the US and USSR off against each other in the hope of getting aid from both sides (as India did).

 

[ArtosStark]

There is another recent thread that posits that Nationalist China would likely just force their own puppet party into a co-equal or leadership position with the Viet Minh in a multi-party resistance movement against the French in Indochina. If the Domino theory is not thought to be a factor there it seems like the US may not intervene?

Fate of Vietnam in a Kuomintang victory scenario

Let’s say that the KMT managed to drive the communists out of Manchuria in 1946, bringing an end to the Chinese Civil War. How would a victorious ROC affect the situation in Indochina, and would it be possible for the Chinese to intervene in the Indochina war? Would the Vietnam War even be...

www.alternatehistory.com

 

[Vinization]

There is another recent thread that posits that Nationalist China would likely just force their own puppet party into a co-equal or leadership position with the Viet Minh in a multi-party resistance movement against the French in Indochina. If the Domino theory is not thought to be a factor there it seems like the US may not intervene?

Fate of Vietnam in a Kuomintang victory scenario

Let’s say that the KMT managed to drive the communists out of Manchuria in 1946, bringing an end to the Chinese Civil War. How would a victorious ROC affect the situation in Indochina, and would it be possible for the Chinese to intervene in the Indochina war? Would the Vietnam War even be...

www.alternatehistory.com

Yeah, I also thought of that in the thread you showed. Sure, Chiang hated commies, but he hated colonialism even more, and for a good reason. Century of Humiliation and all that.

Could this make the US side with the Viet Minh too?

 

[ArtosStark]

Yeah, I also thought of that in the thread you showed. Sure, Chiang hated commies, but he hated colonialism even more, and for a good reason. Century of Humiliation and all that.

Could this make the US side with the Viet Minh too?

I honestly don't know which one he hated more. But if given the chance to basically establish a puppet government in a neighboring nation (an old Chinese rival controlled by old Chinese rivals, no less) I think he would have a hard time passing that up.

I doubt the states would actively side against the French. By this point the Soviet Union would likely be considered the main rival and France was an ally in that stare down. They may even send limited aid to the French if they can get away with it without anyone at home raising a fuss. But I suspect that is as far as they would go.

 

[HalfRottenHerring]

Not very likely but could we see the US forming a anti-colonialism block with KMT-China against Europe?

Without a red China the USSR is going to lock a lot more cut of from the rest of the world.

 

[ArtosStark]

Not very likely but could we see the US forming a anti-colonialism block with KMT-China against Europe?

Without a red China the USSR is going to lock a lot more cut of from the rest of the world.

This would be post-Berlin airlift. The USSR would have nukes. I doubt European countries that the US could keep onside and still strip them of colonies in the long run would seem more threatening than Stalin. It could very well see the USA being less supportive of the European Allies keeping their colonies to keep communists from getting them which could lead to an earlier decolonization. Depends on who is in charge and would probably be on a case-by case basis.

 

[HalfRottenHerring]

This would be post-Berlin airlift. The USSR would have nukes. I doubt European countries that the US could keep onside and still strip them of colonies in the long run would seem more threatening than Stalin. It could very well see the USA being less supportive of the European Allies keeping their colonies to keep communists from getting them which could lead to an earlier decolonization. Depends on who is in charge and would probably be on a case-by case basis.

Oh, I didn't think about how long the Chinese civil war was active after WWII.

you are right about who's in charge mattering a whole lot. The specific PoD and such would matter a lot for how things develop.

 

[Ficboy]

Another major difference with Kuomintang China is that they might democratize under Chiang Ching-Kuo and Lee Teng-Hui similar what they did in Taiwan in OTL. It could also mean that there is less suppression of the Tibetans and Uyghurs.

 

[Dan1988]

Another major difference with Kuomintang China is that they might democratize under Chiang Ching-Kuo and Lee Teng-Hui similar what they did in Taiwan in OTL.

Lee Teng-hui rising to such heights of power is not that certain (most likely not), and Jiang Jingguo only democratized Taiwan as a result of specific circumstances which also may not occur IOTL, as a way to distance himself from his former role as head of the secret police and the GMD's security apparatus. Most likely, if it did try developing in that direction, it would be more like Japan or Singapore - which would, especially if it aped more of the Singaporean model, not necessarily be very democratic and more a continuation of the authoritarian state. Just became the GMD defeats the CPC ITTL doesn't mean all its old impulses will go away that easily.

 

[Ficboy]

Lee Teng-hui rising to such heights of power is not that certain (most likely not), and Jiang Jingguo only democratized Taiwan as a result of specific circumstances which also may not occur IOTL, as a way to distance himself from his former role as head of the secret police and the GMD's security apparatus. Most likely, if it did try developing in that direction, it would be more like Japan or Singapore - which would, especially if it aped more of the Singaporean model, not necessarily be very democratic and more a continuation of the authoritarian state. Just became the GMD defeats the CPC ITTL doesn't mean all its old impulses will go away that easily.

Singapore is a good enough analogue for what a victorious Kuomintang China would look like: It's a Chinese majority nation with various minority groups and it's an Asian Tiger nation.

 

[Dan1988]

Singapore is a good enough analogue for what a victorious Kuomintang China would look like [. . .] and it's an Asian Tiger nation.

Maybe, maybe not. Until the Cold War, the GMD historically was very leery of capitalism (most notably, it terrorized the merchant class in Shanghai twice), so it's just as likely it won't rise to the dizzying heights of Singapore and be like some of the other SE Asian nations, which tried and failed. Equally, it could be similar to the PRC's economic model but more gradual, so structurally it would look like India but without the "Hindu rate of growth" moniker. Asian Tiger it would not be, but a nation which has recovered economically from the Civil War, most definitely.

 

[Bellacinos]

Does this lead to a more underdeveloped Japan since US will divert more resources and attention to China and without Korean War to help spark Japanese economy?

 

[Awkwardvulture]

I have a dumb question, would the Korean War still occur, even if China isn't communist? For instance, would we have North Korea invading South Korea with more support from the Soviets and some from Communist exiles from China?

 

[Vinization]

I have a dumb question, would the Korean War still occur, even if China isn't communist? For instance, would we have North Korea invading South Korea with more support from the Soviets and some from Communist exiles from China?

I think the Chinese exiles would go straight to Moscow. Then again, the war may not even erupt. Or maybe it does because Kim Il Sung feels he's surrounded by capitalists on all sides.

 

[Awkwardvulture]

I think the Chinese exiles would go straight to Moscow. Then again, the war may not even erupt. Or maybe it does because Kim Il Sung feels he's surrounded by capitalists on all sides.

Would there be an attempt to use them as a fighting force in the Korean War, like maybe something slightly simmilar to the Cuban exiles used in the Bay of Pigs invasion?