Nationalist Spain enters WWII on the side of the Nazis in 1940

Winning Spain for the axis mean losing Vichy France (at least the colonies). And that mean that Spanish Morocco is lost and the Italians now have to fight on two fronts. This means a more successful operation Compass and Libya is probably lost.
 
The Suez could not effectively be used to supply Malta due to the need to route a task force around Africa first, which would be huge expensive and deny them for other duty and take a lot longer, then run them in from one direction around Crete and Sicily and then double back along the way they came. It would be a suicide mission and the RN refused to try if Gibraltar would have fallen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malta_Convoys

Suggest you look at the proportion of Malta convoys that came from Alexandria.;)
 
This is the key point. Practically speaking, unless you invoke ASBs, belligerent Spain = Vichy collapse, above all in North Africa, plus a very heavy burden on the German economy.

There are tons of butterflies here, but why is Vichy collapse taken as a necessity?
If the event causing Spanish entry into the war is not French colonies (ideology...?/treats?/too strong a British blockade?), the collaboration would seem even more justified.
 

Ian_W

Banned
There are tons of butterflies here, but why is Vichy collapse taken as a necessity?
If the event causing Spanish entry into the war is not French colonies (ideology...?/treats?/too strong a British blockade?), the collaboration would seem even more justified.

Franco was demanding Algeria and Morocco, as well as border adjustments with France.

If those colonies become Free French, then things become a lot easier for the Allies in Africa, even if supplies have to still come around to Egypt the long way.
 
Franco was demanding Algeria and Morocco, as well as border adjustments with France.

If those colonies become Free French, then things become a lot easier for the Allies in Africa, even if supplies have to still come around to Egypt the long way.

I don't disagree that is a possibility and Vichy would not survive this outcome, but we don't have a defined POD to make it happen.
It could be increased Falange influence in Spain for some reason, or a tighter British blockade pushing Spain into desperate acts.
 

Ian_W

Banned
I don't disagree that is a possibility and Vichy would not survive this outcome, but we don't have a defined POD to make it happen.
It could be increased Falange influence in Spain for some reason, or a tighter British blockade pushing Spain into desperate acts.

Errr, if Franco is worried about a British blockade, then joining the Axis - and completely cutting off all his trade with the Americas - is the last thing he wants to do.
 
Errr, if Franco is worried about a British blockade, then joining the Axis - and completely cutting off all his trade with the Americas - is the last thing he wants to do.

On a balance of probabilities Franco did the best thing for Franco by keeping Spain neutral.

I reckon that if he had "done a Mussolini" in June 1940 (the only plausible time when he would have entered the war in my opinion because the war appeared to be over bar negotiating the peace treaty) it's 80:20 that the would have been dead by the end of 1945.

However, if (in common with his friend Benny) he miscalculated an did declare war on the WAllies an immediate British blockade of Spain might not be possible. The Royal Navy was overstretched as it was and might not be able to impose an effective blockade on Spain, at least in the short term.

The length of coastline to be covered would be longer. Furthermore Ferrol and Cadiz would be harder to blockade than the French Atlantic ports. Though it would help if Franco (unlike Mussolini) had ordered his merchant marine to head for home or neutral ports before declaring war.

And it might (10:90 chance) encourage friendly countries in Latin America to join the Axis. So instead of a butterfly effect, the domino effect comes into play.

It's not likely, but like the Channel Dash it's possible.
 
Spain joining the Axis and then the Axis do better while not ASB is'nt the war-winner that the usual suspects think it is.

Spain joins
Gib falls - so what, most of the convoys go round Africa anyway
Canaries are taken - which make a nice place for anti u-boat ops
Depending on what Portugal do the Allies might pick up the Azores as well - ditto as above

Malta may or may not fall, but as it can be re-supplied from Alex....

Spain in the Axis does'nt magically get the Afrika Korps to Cairo. It does'nt magic up extra railroads or usuable port capacity. It does'nt stop the RN & RAF based in Alex from attacking transport convoys to N.Africa. It does'nt stop the RN from chasing the RM back into port

What it does get is Franco hung from a tree somewhere and Spain in an even worse economic situation that ATL

Franco was'nt stupid, theres a reason why he died in his bed in 1975 so unless someone spikes his tea with lead in 1940 this TL is a bust
 
Spain in the Axis does'nt magically get the Afrika Korps to Cairo. It does'nt magic up extra railroads or usuable port capacity. It does'nt stop the RN & RAF based in Alex from attacking transport convoys to N.Africa. It does'nt stop the RN from chasing the RM back into port
In fact, if anything it sees the British in Tripoli by Christmas of 1941.
 
Spain joining the Axis and then the Axis do better while not ASB is'nt the war-winner that the usual suspects think it is.

Few of the World War II what if's on here are - individually. However, it's different if enough of them can be combined.
 
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