Nationalist Spain enters WWII on the side of the Nazis in 1940

In late 1940 after pressure from Hitler, Fransisco Franco declares war on the United Kingdom and invades Gibraltar. Fransisco Franco also assists the Germans and Italians in North Africa.

Lets say the the Axis take control of Gibraltar and the Suez, then they invade the Middle East. Nazi soldiers invade Israel and TransJordan. Jewish immigrants to Israel fight back yet they are eventually rounded up and slaughtered. A concentration camp is set up in Israel and the rest of Allied territory in the Middle East is conqeuered. Operation Barbarossa takes place at the same date as in our timeline yet how would World War Two have turned out differently if Fransisco had joined and after several successes both the Suez and Gibraltar would be under Axis control?

Well troops from North Africa and the Middle East would be shipped to the Eastern Front since a british invasion would be less of a threat now. Maybe through Persia or Arabia, but that would mean travelling around all of Africa for the British. Also supplies and manpower from British Asia takes longer time to arrive in England.
 
Spain would be a net loss, they'd gain Gibraltar, but more French colonies would declare for de Gaulle (one bribe would have to be colonies in North Africa, which could come from only France or Italy), and Spain would be such a resource drag that Barbarossa might not even be possible, or if it is, it costs the Axis North Africa (no equipment to support a German deployment).
 
Hitler had enough problems supporting Italian colonial ambition without wasting valuable resources on another useless med country (no offence to Spain, just to Franco)
 
In late 1940 after pressure from Hitler, Fransisco Franco declares war on the United Kingdom and invades Gibraltar. Fransisco Franco also assists the Germans and Italians in North Africa.

Not possible, Spain is in a dismal state and any attempt to enter the war would risk reigniting the civil war. Spain would need massive assistance from Germany just to hold its own, never mind intervening in North Africa. Germany also loses the supply line for raw materials that ran through 'neutral' Spain. Hitler jumped through all the hoops imaginable to get Franco to declare war, Franco declined. In the end Hitler shoots himself in a bunker in 1945, Franco died peacefully in his bed in 1975 still ruler of his country.
 

Deleted member 1487

Gibraltar falls, which causes Malta to fall in 1941. British ships need to take and even bigger detour and theoretically the Italian navy can sortie in the Atlantic, so the RN needs to at least plan for that. That may topple the Churchill government. In the meantime its a major drain on food resources, as it was importing from the Americas at a discount for humanitarian reasons and was exporting food to Germany, now it has to keep everything and demand Germany make up the difference. French colonies probably start to consider flipping sides, which burdens Germany with probably dispatching Vichy entirely. Spain is no real help, but it puts Portugal into a more Axis-friendly mood to avoid invasion; if Britain is stupid enough to put troops into Portugal they lose them; they do potentially get SOE into Spain, which can be a headache.

If Spain's entry does not knock Britain out of the war, it then gets invaded in late 1942 by the forces marked for Algeria IOTL. The US and UK land in Spain, which heads off the Italian campaign for a while and probably kills the LW fighting with bad logistics and brings Portugal into the Allied camp. Its bad news from there on out for the Axis, as Franco loses power and Spain pulls an Italy, flipping sides. Spain gets royally destroyed during the campaign, even worse because it hadn't recovered from SCW. It then makes invading Normandy easier, because it would have to suck in so many German troops to defend compared to Spain.

Ultimately Spain is a major drain in the long run if the war isn't over within 6-12 months. However it could potentially knock Britain out of the war for political reasons if the loss of Gibraltar and Malta plus the issues around the narrative of the war change because of yet another enemy fighting Britain. So perhaps flip a coin and chose your own adventure; Spain could make or break the war.
 

Asami

Banned
Is it guaranteed that Britain would lose Gibraltar? I thought Gibraltar was easily defended by those already sitting on it, and I doubt Britain would let the Axis take it lightly -- as well; the Suez still under Allied control, and can be used to reinforce Malta...? I doubt Spanish entry into the Axis guarantees a defeat in the Mediterranean for the Allies; Nationalist Spain is still reeling from the civil war 4 years prior. With an early enough POD (being 1940), this means that the Greek campaign hasn't started -- the Allies might through more weight behind it to prevent the Axis from taking Greece, or Britain might fortify Crete before the German paratroopers shore up.

But suspending the disbelief that Spain could make a serious effect on the Axis -- let's say Hitler gets some lucky potion from a gypsy, and the Suez and Gibraltar are both taken by the Axis, and Malta is turned into a practical fortress under constant bombardment, before eventually surrendering due to Spanish-Italian attack right around Barbarossa -- I remained unconvinced that this is a knock-out blow to the British; their morale is going to hurt, but they're not going to pack it in because of losses. If they weathered the Blitz, they can weather this set-back.

The United States' entry is practically guaranteed by 1940, and save Germany telling Japan to sod off, Japan was already in the preparing stage to attack the US -- and when they do, the US will kick the Axis in the nuts; the USN + RN will guarantee that Spain has no chance of surviving the war.

What this may mean is a prolonged war as the Allies now also have to deal with a large-scale campaign to reclaim North Africa and to invade Iberia, but I'm relatively sure the Allies would still win anyway -- just not in 1945; maybe 1946 or 1947.

But I doubt Spain would have much effect on the Eastern Front other than being just extra cannonfodder for the Wehrmacht.

But seriously? Franco entering the Axis will just lead to his demise either by the hands of an Allied war-crimes trial, or by his own people when the Allies start bombing their lands, just like Italy.
 
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Deleted member 1487

Is it guaranteed that Britain would lose Gibraltar? I thought Gibraltar was easily defended by those already sitting on it, and I doubt Britain would let the Axis take it lightly -- as well; the Suez still under Allied control, and can be used to reinforce Malta...? I doubt Spanish entry into the Axis guarantees a defeat in the Mediterranean for the Allies; Nationalist Spain is still reeling from the civil war 4 years prior. With an early enough POD (being 1940), this means that the Greek campaign hasn't started -- the Allies might through more weight behind it to prevent the Axis from taking Greece, or Britain might fortify Crete before the German paratroopers shore up.
Yes, but it didn't matter. They'd use their ability to use the harbor the second German and Spanish guns opened up on the rock. Then its neutralized and cannot do anything but endure a siege. The Suez could not effectively be used to supply Malta due to the need to route a task force around Africa first, which would be huge expensive and deny them for other duty and take a lot longer, then run them in from one direction around Crete and Sicily and then double back along the way they came. It would be a suicide mission and the RN refused to try if Gibraltar would have fallen. In 1940 the Brits don't have more weight to put into Greece, they just lost all the heavy equipment from the BEF at Dunkirk and were fearing an invasion at the same time. In 1941 things had just started to recover but by the time of the invasion of Greece Rommel had destroyed British forces in Libya and the Brits were worried about the loss of Egypt.
 

Asami

Banned
But would they really bow out of the war after these circumstances -- Churchill and FDR had already been planning on collaboration to help win the war; I doubt Churchill, barring being killed, would pull Britain out now. But maybe I'm wrong.
 

Deleted member 1487

But would they really bow out of the war after these circumstances -- Churchill and FDR had already been planning on collaboration to help win the war; I doubt Churchill, barring being killed, would pull Britain out.
Politically there could be a no confidence vote like what happened with Chamberlain. If the war was looking bad enough and people in parliament got enough votes they could topple the Churchill government. He managed to avoid blame for France and did eventually win the BoB, so it comes down to how the public was feeling about their chances in late 1940 after Spain comes in. Despite Churchill-Roosevelt's relationship US help was not really forthcoming until 1941, so in late 1940 Britain is not in a great position and almost broke. LL ended up saving them and loans from the CW and Belgium tided them over until LL started.
 
I doubt Spain, with it's knackered economy after the civil war, high social tensions, and shattered infrastructure could have been nothing more than a punchbag for the allies- a punchbag made of hot butter.
I've always believed that if Italy had taken similar steps to preparing for war like Germany did then it could have easily been a powerful muscle power in the axis- but Spain didn't stand a chance IMO.
The only thing that could have been beneficial for the Axis, would be if Spanish troops had kicked out the British from Gibraltar after U-boat bases had been established in Vichy-France (prevent a Royal Navy counter attack) but this should be Spain's only ambitions for the time being.
 
The problems with Spain joining the Axis as an active participant are the territorial demands they made at the expense of France, and the fact that almost everything they would need to join the fight would need to be provided by Germany. This equipment and ongoing supplies including fuel needs to come from somewhere, the Germans are not exactly overflowing with up to date goodies in 1940. Additionally the Spanish road system which was crap before the civil war is really bad now, and the rail system is also in bad shape both trackage and rolling stock. That has to be addressed before you can assault Gibraltar, and you need to bring Luftwaffe units to Spain to protect the rail and highway repairs as the RAF will certainly go after them.

As I have mentioned as well as others in similar threads, Spain was heavily dependent on petroleum products from the USA and food imports from South America and elsewhere. When Spain joins the Axis, that all comes to a screeching halt and conditions in Spain just got a lot worse. Oops, now there is even more "stuff" Germany has to supply Spain with.

Although the Nationalists "won" in 1939, there were still many Republicans in remote areas, as well as those in cities and towns who were not reconciled to the new government. This is a fertile field for the SOE and sabotaging a very fragile transport system will make life miserable for forces trying to get to Gibraltar, resupply etc.

In WWI a German general described being allied with the A-H Empire as being shackled to a corpse. Having Spain as an ally isn't too different for Germany. Early on, when it might do some good, Spain is such a mess.3-5 years later after some recovery, its way too late. Spain as a conduit for smuggled goods, as a spy outpost etc is way more valuable than as an active participant.
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
Spain has Location and not much else to offer.

Gibraltar cannot be resupplied.

There is a number of locations High angle Howitzers can be used to make the Docks unusable. Water catchment becomes all important.

Has little other than manpower to offer and well Metals.

Tungsten and Chrome are possibly the most important things Spain can supply.

Lots more Iron that is more easily shipped to Italy than Germany. Spain's rail system is in ruins and not good to start with.

Spanish Morocco probably means a Push on Tangiers. And it depends how it plays out the Atlantic Islands might be an interesting fight.

But Spain gains nothing and I mean nothing from getting involved in this war and they are depended on imported Coal ( some mined but not enough) and Oil

And I will repeat a earlier post about this subject

I did say "high angle artillery" park a half dozen Howitzers behind a Mountain that a Naval Gun cannot see or for that matter the wonderful 9.2 Coastel defence guns cannot see or hit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BL_9.2_...k_IX–X
Compared to
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/28_cm_Haubitze_L/12
Or mighty "575 kg (1,268 lb) concrete-piercing shell (Betongranate) with a ballistic cap " landing of decks of battleships.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/35.5_cm_Haubitze_M1
and even comparatively lightwight
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/21_cm_Mörser_18


That pictured Artillery is of no use at all defending Gibraltar. This Happening end of 1940 early 1941 before Barbarossa. before the British have a change to build up after Dunkirk. the most likely time for Spain or Portugal to be foolish.

As I mentioned before. the OP does not mention Britain getting a warning. So Atlantic Island getting reinforcements before Declaration. Also German Para's Landing in Tangier. How long before Britain can react to that. Also no airbases that can effect operations unless you bring in Carrier forces.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=341131

The Southern coast of Spain has a number of Coastal gun placements. it is only 8.7 miles to Africa and the narrowest point in Spain.

Possibly having an effect of the Vichy keeping French Morocco.

Before getting the big November 1940 Convoy Malta is in deep trouble regards air defense and mobile Artillery.
 
Spain would be a net loss, they'd gain Gibraltar, but more French colonies would declare for de Gaulle (one bribe would have to be colonies in North Africa, which could come from only France or Italy), and Spain would be such a resource drag that Barbarossa might not even be possible, or if it is, it costs the Axis North Africa (no equipment to support a German deployment).
This is the key point. Practically speaking, unless you invoke ASBs, belligerent Spain = Vichy collapse, above all in North Africa, plus a very heavy burden on the German economy. That means Germany being sucked into a larger Med/ MENA campaign which brings Germany no discernible benefits (except for the highly dubious negative benefit of possibly wrecking the British Empire, something Hitler was at most lukewarm about, since Germany would get none of the spoils) at the very time when Hitler is planning his life's dream of invading Russia and creating his psycho-Reich in the East.
The likely collapse of Vichy would also simplify the Allies' problems in the Middle East and Far East. In short, Spain's entry gives the Axis a very short-term boost and much larger medium and long-term losses. Which is why it didn't happen.
 
Gibraltar falls, which causes Malta to fall in 1941. British ships need to take and even bigger detour and theoretically the Italian navy can sortie in the Atlantic, so the RN needs to at least plan for that. That may topple the Churchill government. In the meantime its a major drain on food resources, as it was importing from the Americas at a discount for humanitarian reasons and was exporting food to Germany, now it has to keep everything and demand Germany make up the difference. French colonies probably start to consider flipping sides, which burdens Germany with probably dispatching Vichy entirely. Spain is no real help, but it puts Portugal into a more Axis-friendly mood to avoid invasion; if Britain is stupid enough to put troops into Portugal they lose them; they do potentially get SOE into Spain, which can be a headache.

I think Malta would survive 1941, unless a direct attack was made on it. OTL, the RN was forcing convoys through from Gibraltar without too much difficulty in 1941. Here they'd have to go from Alexandria instead, and the escorts would be much weaker, but they should be able to force enough through to keep the island from starving in 1941. Possession of the Cyrenaican airfields is the critical issue. By 1942 it's dead dead dead though.

The UK tries to take the Canaries, and probably succeeds. They'd think about taking the Azores and Madeira too, if the Axis makes any sort of hostile move towards Portugal (actually they might just take them anyway, thinking about Iceland as a precedent). With Axis forces in Spain, the Azores and Portugal are too vulnerable to attack and too important to risk being taken.

Egypt will very likely survive. Malta was pretty much neutralised in early 1942 OTL anyway. The logistical challenges of port capacity and distance make it so difficult to break the Alamein position. But no Malta will greatly aid the defence of Tripolitania after being pushed back from Alamein. The Desert war would last a lot longer, particularly since Torch has become a much more challenging proposition.
 
Except that Germany has to support Spain industrially, so there might well not be enough left over to be able to afford a deployment in support of the Italians, which means that Torch might not be necessary in the first place.
 
I could only see this somewhat plausible if the UK were invaded and beaten, leaving North Africa as a battle ground to fight rogue British territories.
 

Asami

Banned
I could only see this somewhat plausible if the UK were invaded and beaten, leaving North Africa as a battle ground to fight rogue British territories.

But that brings us to the Sea Mammal, which this forum has beaten to death as ASB. ;)
 
An additional reality is that the US had contingency plans for occupying Atlantic Islands (Azores, Canaries) if necessary to prevent their falling in to German/Axis hands even before 12/41. Realistically no way the Germans can send much to "stiffen" the Canaries before Spain jumps in, and afterwards not really.

Franco was many things but not an idiot. He knew that if Spain formally joined in (as opposed to letting volunteers go to Russia) he was wagering a pound to gain a penny. If the Axis lost, Spain was right & truly screwed. If they won, MAYBE they'd get some French North African territory (of dubious value) but even an Axis win is going to cost Spain more dead and crippled, more destruction in Spain, and delayed reconstruction. If and when Britain was really on the ropes he could jump on at the last minute and get Gibraltar at least. Unless and until then...
 
Basically, Spain was ruined by the Civil War. And it imported a large chunk of its food. Spain NEEDED the ridiculous amount of supplies Franco demanded from Hitler, if it were to wage war. Germany didn't have those resources available. Spain's not going to join the Axis.

If they did, Spaniards would die of starvation, among other things.


See also the following threads

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