I'm working on a mod for Hearts of Iron 4, where the CP wins a negotiated World War 1 in 1918 due to American pressure on Britain following the fall of France in spring 1918 to end the war. (Somewhat ASB, I realize, but Wilson dies of a stroke right before the 1912 election).
Now, since this is a negotiated peace, one of the things I wanted to avoid was the return of Germany's Asia holdings since I can't see Japan/Australia/New Zealand giving them up or the British forcing them to either. This allows the
May Fourth Movement to happen more or less the same, creating the conditions for the rise of the KMT. Manchuria also falls to the Japanese in 1931.
However, this is where I want to start diverting. In my timeline, the Germans see China as a good place to invest (even without the treaty ports) and much like otl's
Sino-German coopertion, the German military helps Chaing modernize his army more or less to the 60 divisions they planned on by 1936 (stronger Germany means more to invest, especially after the Mukden Incident ittl).
The Ma Clique, with better equipment and training due to a larger German military mission, defeats the Xinjiang Clique and its Soviet backers ittl's
Soviet Invasion of Xinjiang, leaving the area under their firm control.
In addition, Mao is killed in the Long March (which I'm pretty sure isn't too implausible) allowing Chaing to finish off the communists in Shaaxi by the winter of 35.
Finally, due to the nature of how WW1 ended, the Anglo-Japanese treaty is still in effect to a limited extent, as the Anglo-German rivalry is one of the main features of the mod and ittl Britain keeps Japan as a counterweight to the USSR and later German-backed KMT.
So, to sum up, a German-aligned KMT government, having defeated the Communists with German aid, now has to figure out the next step. Obviously things like bringing the remaining warlords under direct control, reclaiming Manchuria and maybe Mongolia (as even iotl they
haven't relinquished claim over Outer Mongolia and Tanna Tuva), and dealing with a possible clash with the USSR over Xinjiang.
What would some of the results of this change be, regarding things such as the 2nd Sino-Japanese War? Would better trained and equipped KMT divisions be able to hold their own and even start to push the Japanese back? What effects would a sustained Japanese invasion of China have on the British alliance? In the event of a war between Germany's Mitteleuropa alliance and the USSR, would the KMT be dragged into the fighting hoping to tie down Soviet divisions and reclaim their lost lands (including possibly, Outer Manchuria).
I'd like to hear some thoughts, criticisms, etc.