Nationalist China in a CP victory scenario.

Refocusing on China. My biggest question is how would a surviving Imperial Germany interact with China. My assumption is that it really would like its extra territorial possessions returned and would be pushing for its colonies to be returned, but would there be enough vision to realize the opportunity in not being an Imperial power, at least in a China poised to awaken? So far I assume yes and have Germany pressure the Entente for compensation for private property taken, I do not assume any justice is done, but Germany gains more than a backwater coaling port in China. I already opined as to how China and Germany get on.

Now I wonder how a future China, under the KMT or its successor as the political culture evolves, asserts itself.

Would China eventually support Vietnamese Nationalists to push France from the board? I can see an Indochina War for independence and civil war fueled by a Nationalist China. the USSR might sneak support to Communists and Japan might aide whomever it could to further complicate things for France. My assumption is that China wants all Imperial Powers out of China and by extension Asia regardless of whether it is Communists or Nationalists at the helm.

Would there still be a Chinese exodus from Shanghai to Hong Kong and would Hong Kong take off? If the KMT is the victor then I see Shanghai becoming a Chinese city and a business capital for China, the Europeans might grumble and a lot might leave, the Japanese likely get kicked out wholesale; but I do not see the Chinese business class going to HK and if anything Shanghai takes the reins on the whole of capitalist China's business the way New York dominates the USA. In this world Hong Kong might remain more a mere backwater as China bypasses it, restricts it water, and generally pressures the UK to relinquish not just the lease portion but all of it early. HK is not a window to China but a curiosity off the channel into Canton. At most it gets special status under Chinese rule similar to how China repossessed the German possessions once 1997 rolls around.

Would Singapore become the British outpost in Asia earlier and remain so here? Would the UK reposition Singapore to a permanent British enclave and sovereign base? I suspect Singapore becomes the eastern outpost of the Empire and might look more like Gibraltar with a HK style business boom today.

I am not certain if Japan invades Manchuria or not here but I think it is assumed. I think the retaking of Manchuria is the end goal for the Chinese and unless something stops it, China will pursue this to the bitter end. Would China liberate Korea? Would it demand Formosa? Assuming China is victorious I can foresee her pushing to have Japan off the mainland. Would Stalin relinquish its piece of Muslim China in the West? Mongolia? The former is more likely but I think Stalin will want Mongolia as a buffer and tension will rise to put China and Russia back into mutual mistrust and a state of preparedness for war.

Would China reach further out? Does it begin to assert itself to incite independence in Malaysia's ethnic Chinese populace? Other Chinese populations in Asia? Overall I think Asia gets decolonialization at least as quickly, more patchwork perhaps, but here China will be on a faster track to regional hegemony and other powers all have the ability to stir the various pots of discontent.

By modern day I think China gets into Africa and the Americas too, its industry needs raw materials and markets, so it might join Germany in the struggle to break the Empires but without ideology. Capitalist China becomes a sharp player. My questions become how the USA economy moves forward and if it pursues free trade and develops trade with an industrial China earlier? Here Japan might be limited to trade with the British Empire rather than having connections to the USA. Does China boom like Japan did? Butterflies in droves.
 
Refocusing on China. My biggest question is how would a surviving Imperial Germany interact with China. My assumption is that it really would like its extra territorial possessions returned and would be pushing for its colonies to be returned, but would there be enough vision to realize the opportunity in not being an Imperial power, at least in a China poised to awaken? So far I assume yes and have Germany pressure the Entente for compensation for private property taken, I do not assume any justice is done, but Germany gains more than a backwater coaling port in China. I already opined as to how China and Germany get on.

I can't find the source at the moment, but I read somewhere that the Germans offered back their lease territory to the Chinese Republic to keep them out of the war, but by that point it was too late. Ittl the Germans have given up direct imperial pretensions in the form of leased territory; instead, they basically have a resources-for-investment program. Since the peace was negotiated the Germans are rather out of luck (aside from looting France) and since Germany now has no imperial ambitions in China (unlike pretty much everyone else save for the USA) and a mutual rival in the USSR they are drawn together.

Now I wonder how a future China, under the KMT or its successor as the political culture evolves, asserts itself.

Would China eventually support Vietnamese Nationalists to push France from the board? I can see an Indochina War for independence and civil war fueled by a Nationalist China. the USSR might sneak support to Communists and Japan might aide whomever it could to further complicate things for France. My assumption is that China wants all Imperial Powers out of China and by extension Asia regardless of whether it is Communists or Nationalists at the helm.

Yes; one thing that Kai-Shek was insistent on was anti-colonialism so I can see him supporting the nationalists in Vietnam (and without the PRC to support them the communist movement will have less influence in Vietnam) and that will create problems for the French junta. As for Macao and Hong Kong (since I still have the USA negotiating the 1922 Nine-Power Treaty) I see the KMT and Germany trying to put pressure on Portugal to sell Macao and try to play politics with Great Britain for Hong Kong.

Would there still be a Chinese exodus from Shanghai to Hong Kong and would Hong Kong take off? If the KMT is the victor then I see Shanghai becoming a Chinese city and a business capital for China, the Europeans might grumble and a lot might leave, the Japanese likely get kicked out wholesale; but I do not see the Chinese business class going to HK and if anything Shanghai takes the reins on the whole of capitalist China's business the way New York dominates the USA. In this world Hong Kong might remain more a mere backwater as China bypasses it, restricts it water, and generally pressures the UK to relinquish not just the lease portion but all of it early. HK is not a window to China but a curiosity off the channel into Canton. At most it gets special status under Chinese rule similar to how China repossessed the German possessions once 1997 rolls around.

Actually, iotl Shanghai was the commercial center of China until Maoist policy destroyed its economic infrastructure. Hong Kong likely remains a backwater, and as such the KMT can probably convince Britain to relinquish it early, like you said, for some sort of financial compensation.

Would Singapore become the British outpost in Asia earlier and remain so here? Would the UK reposition Singapore to a permanent British enclave and sovereign base? I suspect Singapore becomes the eastern outpost of the Empire and might look more like Gibraltar with a HK style business boom today.

Hadn't considered that, but yes, I can definitely see Singapore booming earlier and staying under British control as an "Eastern Gibraltar".

I am not certain if Japan invades Manchuria or not here but I think it is assumed. I think the retaking of Manchuria is the end goal for the Chinese and unless something stops it, China will pursue this to the bitter end. Would China liberate Korea? Would it demand Formosa? Assuming China is victorious I can foresee her pushing to have Japan off the mainland. Would Stalin relinquish its piece of Muslim China in the West? Mongolia? The former is more likely but I think Stalin will want Mongolia as a buffer and tension will rise to put China and Russia back into mutual mistrust and a state of preparedness for war.

Yes, the Mukden Incident happens roughly around the same time as in otl (which ittl kicks of a flurry of German investment in the Nationalist Army to prevent more of China from falling under Japanese control). Manchuria and Taiwan are still goals of the KMT, Korea will likely be wanted as a client state like the old Qing-Joseon relationship. Stalin will want control over the southern Amur river valley (part of Manchukuo ittl due to the Japanese intervention in Siberia) and possibly could want to carve out another client state in the north. Also, Xinjiang is under the control of the Ma Clique ittl (German arms make the difference), but Mongolia and Tuva remain sore points in KMT-USSR relations.

Would China reach further out? Does it begin to assert itself to incite independence in Malaysia's ethnic Chinese populace? Other Chinese populations in Asia? Overall I think Asia gets decolonialization at least as quickly, more patchwork perhaps, but here China will be on a faster track to regional hegemony and other powers all have the ability to stir the various pots of discontent.

If Japan is decisively defeated I can see China trying to assert itself in the South China Sea sooner and possibly moving to protect ethnic Chinese in SE Asia, yes. As for decolonization, I do agree with your assessment about it happening more or less around the same time as iotl.

By modern day I think China gets into Africa and the Americas too, its industry needs raw materials and markets, so it might join Germany in the struggle to break the Empires but without ideology. Capitalist China becomes a sharp player. My questions become how the USA economy moves forward and if it pursues free trade and develops trade with an industrial China earlier? Here Japan might be limited to trade with the British Empire rather than having connections to the USA. Does China boom like Japan did? Butterflies in droves.

Japan definitely won't benefit from a post-war boom if China has sane economic policies (read: literally anyone except Mao) and will be a 2nd rate industrial power at best, dependent on the British for raw materials. China probably is the 2nd biggest economy by the late 60's/early 70's imho (look at how well they did during the Nanjiang Decade, and imagine more foreign investment and control over the entire country without a civil war) and become one of the premier Great Powers.
 
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Refocusing on China. My biggest question is how would a surviving Imperial Germany interact with China. My assumption is that it really would like its extra territorial possessions returned and would be pushing for its colonies to be returned, but would there be enough vision to realize the opportunity in not being an Imperial power, at least in a China poised to awaken? So far I assume yes and have Germany pressure the Entente for compensation for private property taken, I do not assume any justice is done, but Germany gains more than a backwater coaling port in China. I already opined as to how China and Germany get on.

I can't find the source at the moment, but I read somewhere that the Germans offered back their lease territory to the Chinese Republic to keep them out of the war, but by that point it was too late. Ittl the Germans have given up direct imperial pretensions in the form of leased territory; instead, they basically have a resources-for-investment program. Since the peace was negotiated the Germans are rather out of luck (aside from looting France) and since Germany now has no imperial ambitions in China (unlike pretty much everyone else save for the USA) and a mutual rival in the USSR they are drawn together.

Extraterritorialism was a huge issue for the various leaders of China throughout the 20th century, be they Imperial, Republican, or Communist. They're definitely trying to get them all back. As for German gains, the Chinese market will be massive, and trade will flourish once China gets on its feet. As for Germany's lack of imperial ambitions in China, that was one of the major factors behind Sino-German cooperation OTL, and if things go as described, TTL.

Now I wonder how a future China, under the KMT or its successor as the political culture evolves, asserts itself.

Would China eventually support Vietnamese Nationalists to push France from the board? I can see an Indochina War for independence and civil war fueled by a Nationalist China. the USSR might sneak support to Communists and Japan might aide whomever it could to further complicate things for France. My assumption is that China wants all Imperial Powers out of China and by extension Asia regardless of whether it is Communists or Nationalists at the helm.

Under the KMT, and under Chiang, are two different things. Chiang Kai-Shiek was not a good leader - he would frequently attempt/succeed at assassinating his opposition in the KMT. He was also the one who launched the start of the Chinese Civil War, through the Shanghai Massacre. Furthermore, under his rule, corruption rose to an all-time high - this being part of how the Communists won. Had someone along the lines of Hu Hanmin, or Liao Zhongkai come to power, China would've likely been filled with less bloodletting, and/or corruption.


I am not certain if Japan invades Manchuria or not here but I think it is assumed. I think the retaking of Manchuria is the end goal for the Chinese and unless something stops it, China will pursue this to the bitter end. Would China liberate Korea? Would it demand Formosa? Assuming China is victorious I can foresee her pushing to have Japan off the mainland. Would Stalin relinquish its piece of Muslim China in the West? Mongolia? The former is more likely but I think Stalin will want Mongolia as a buffer and tension will rise to put China and Russia back into mutual mistrust and a state of preparedness for war.

Japan's invading Manchuria. Japan lacks resources, and there are massive amounts of them in Manchuria. Japan's going to invade. As for Formosa/Taiwan, you need only look at the PRC's attitudes on the island to know the KMT's. Despite having never taken the island, even once, the PRC maintains their claim today. I fail to see how the KMT would act any differently, given how they're both essentially nationalists. China's wanting Japan off the Mainland, no question. As for Xinjiang (That piece of Muslim China in the west), China's wanting that back too. Same with Tibet, Tannu-Tuva and Mongolia, if they can. I'm doubtful about KMT ability to enforce Chinese rule over TT and Mongolia, though. As for Stalin wanting Mongolia as a buffer, if Chiang's not being strongarmed into it, and Mao's not dependent on Stalin for survival, China's not bending over.

Yes, the Mukden Incident happens roughly around the same time as in otl (which ittl kicks of a flurry of German investment in the Nationalist Army to prevent more of China from falling under Japanese control). Manchuria and Taiwan are still goals of the KMT, Korea will likely be wanted as a client state like the old Qing-Joseon relationship. Stalin will want control over the southern Amur river valley (part of Manchukuo ittl due to the Japanese intervention in Siberia) and possibly could want to carve out another client state in the north. Also, Xinjiang is under the control of the Ma Clique ittl (German arms make the difference), but Mongolia and Tuva remain sore points in KMT-USSR relations.

The Ma Clique will certainly hold Xinjiang, but the question is, when does the KMT retake it? Many of the warlords were crushed during and after WWII. As for Stalin wanting control over the rest of Outer Manchuria, that'll depend on how many friends the USSR has, and how beaten they are post-war. Keep in mind, Soviet Russia's initiating WWII here.
 
Extraterritorialism was a huge issue for the various leaders of China throughout the 20th century, be they Imperial, Republican, or Communist. They're definitely trying to get them all back. As for German gains, the Chinese market will be massive, and trade will flourish once China gets on its feet. As for Germany's lack of imperial ambitions in China, that was one of the major factors behind Sino-German cooperation OTL, and if things go as described, TTL.
Exactly; Germany, especially without its other Asian holdings, has no interest in an isolated coastal enclave that has proven impossible to defend. Chinese trade will be immensely beneficial to Germany.



Under the KMT, and under Chiang, are two different things. Chiang Kai-Shiek was not a good leader - he would frequently attempt/succeed at assassinating his opposition in the KMT. He was also the one who launched the start of the Chinese Civil War, through the Shanghai Massacre. Furthermore, under his rule, corruption rose to an all-time high - this being part of how the Communists won. Had someone along the lines of Hu Hanmin, or Liao Zhongkai come to power, China would've likely been filled with less bloodletting, and/or corruption.

A good part of the corruption, from what I can tell, was mostly a problem after the Sino-Japanese War started. Not that Kai-Shek was some model of good government, but a lot of the problems the KMT faced iotl was a result of the destruction of the war (which the communists escaped from relatively untouched). I think his reforms he initiated in Taiwan are a good model for future trends in ttl's RoC, and while corruption would still exist I doubt it would be less functional then, say, the PRC iotl.




Japan's invading Manchuria. Japan lacks resources, and there are massive amounts of them in Manchuria. Japan's going to invade. As for Formosa/Taiwan, you need only look at the PRC's attitudes on the island to know the KMT's. Despite having never taken the island, even once, the PRC maintains their claim today. I fail to see how the KMT would act any differently, given how they're both essentially nationalists. China's wanting Japan off the Mainland, no question. As for Xinjiang (That piece of Muslim China in the west), China's wanting that back too. Same with Tibet, Tannu-Tuva and Mongolia, if they can. I'm doubtful about KMT ability to enforce Chinese rule over TT and Mongolia, though. As for Stalin wanting Mongolia as a buffer, if Chiang's not being strongarmed into it, and Mao's not dependent on Stalin for survival, China's not bending over.

Without a broader war, I don't see the KMT being able to recover Taiwan (unless they trade Korea for it). If the KMT can get its act together, defeat the Japanese (at least on the main land) and secure hold over the warlords I can see a beaten, battered (probably Stalin-less, if they lose to Germany) USSR being strong-armed into reliquishing control over Mongolia



The Ma Clique will certainly hold Xinjiang, but the question is, when does the KMT retake it? Many of the warlords were crushed during and after WWII. As for Stalin wanting control over the rest of Outer Manchuria, that'll depend on how many friends the USSR has, and how beaten they are post-war. Keep in mind, Soviet Russia's initiating WWII here.

Perhaps instead of crushing them, the KMT does what the PRC and further incorporates the Warlords into the existing power structure (which, de facto, they already were, but ittl that becomes more of a reality as the national government is stregthened).
 
Another thing I've been mulling over: how extensive could the Chinese naval works be made from 1931-37 with more German investment? Could China have developed a more modern navy, obviously not one that can take on the Japanese head on (battleships and carriers are ASB at this point imho), but maybe more subs and light craft that can harass Japanese shipping and cripple her imports?
 
My assumptions are premised upon no war in Europe, my Germany is a surviving Kaiserreich and the USSR is certainly revanchist but opportunistic with healthy pragmatism. Thus I have imagined how the Germans are still in need of foreign trade partners and have a lingering antagonism towards Japan. Frankly I have not yet thought through how the Japan might react to a battered but not defeated Germany. At minimum I think the Japanese are more restrained in their war with China. I effectively see the Pacific War butterflied. But I think China will be poised to wage war to pursue its own revanchist agenda. Thus I think China goes at Manchuria (assuming it is still conquered in 1931), it likely goes after Korea and will push to get control over itself internally, no extra-territorial concessions will last long, Hong Kong and Macau will be under pressure, Mongolia and Tibet are on the table and somewhere plans are made to invade Formosa.

My assumption is that Mao and the communists get sacrificed or perhaps held in exile by Stalin like he did with other international communists, purging those who do not fall into Stalinist doctrine, so Mao will live or die based on his ability to placate Stalin. From that I see the KMT steering a course not truly pro-Western but then we do not have the bright lines of the Cold War here. Long term the world will be vaguely Western ranging from democratic to Fascist, emerging Nationalist nations or Russian "Revolutionary" Communist in spirit, a three way ideological backdrop to the continuing Great Power struggle. China will become the Great Power in Asia, Japan will be second fiddle.

Generally I think Japan will look rather like Soviet Russia in the sixties, a command economy dominated by heavy industry and defense, lackluster consumer sectors, gradually declining fortunes, but better prospects to reform and reemerge as a democracy in future who can reintegrate into the global system. Sadly I see a lot of what made Japan a tiger butterflied and I hate to think how America will miss so much great cultural infusion.

Generally I do not see the USA getting the big bump in economic growth or propelled to Super power status. It will likely remain the biggest economy globally followed by the British Empire and then Germany and China. China will see real growth once war ends. I think the British remain an important investor but I suspect Chinese will bias against trade with the British and will nearly boycott Japan. I assume the trade flows to German and then American businesses. Assuming the British Empire survives better and longer and effectively pursues a protectionist agenda then America and Germany will invest in China where they are precluded from British areas. I see Africa more impoverished long term and much of the rest of Asia slumbering on in plantation colonial trade longer. I think the Dutch hold on better and DEI likely becomes the major oil exporter to China. I suspect Indochina sees a lot of food exports to China but I am not versed on China's agricultural output yet. My assumption is that the majority live little better than subsistence.

I have not yet thought through if Germany would invest in heavy industry in China or prefer light industry, at some point China will need to create jobs rather than merely export raw materials. Generally I think China must reform its agricultural sector first. From there the farm equipment and fertilizer business flourishes. Surpluses or cash crop production fuel consumerism and industry. I suspect China goes through a cycle of buying obsolete factories and tooling from Germany, producing older model cars and trucks, tractors or equipment, etc. That should get China to the Seventies when things either boom or bust.
 
My assumptions are premised upon no war in Europe, my Germany is a surviving Kaiserreich and the USSR is certainly revanchist but opportunistic with healthy pragmatism. Thus I have imagined how the Germans are still in need of foreign trade partners and have a lingering antagonism towards Japan. Frankly I have not yet thought through how the Japan might react to a battered but not defeated Germany. At minimum I think the Japanese are more restrained in their war with China. I effectively see the Pacific War butterflied. But I think China will be poised to wage war to pursue its own revanchist agenda. Thus I think China goes at Manchuria (assuming it is still conquered in 1931), it likely goes after Korea and will push to get control over itself internally, no extra-territorial concessions will last long, Hong Kong and Macau will be under pressure, Mongolia and Tibet are on the table and somewhere plans are made to invade Formosa.

My assumption is that Mao and the communists get sacrificed or perhaps held in exile by Stalin like he did with other international communists, purging those who do not fall into Stalinist doctrine, so Mao will live or die based on his ability to placate Stalin. From that I see the KMT steering a course not truly pro-Western but then we do not have the bright lines of the Cold War here. Long term the world will be vaguely Western ranging from democratic to Fascist, emerging Nationalist nations or Russian "Revolutionary" Communist in spirit, a three way ideological backdrop to the continuing Great Power struggle. China will become the Great Power in Asia, Japan will be second fiddle.

Generally I think Japan will look rather like Soviet Russia in the sixties, a command economy dominated by heavy industry and defense, lackluster consumer sectors, gradually declining fortunes, but better prospects to reform and reemerge as a democracy in future who can reintegrate into the global system. Sadly I see a lot of what made Japan a tiger butterflied and I hate to think how America will miss so much great cultural infusion.

Generally I do not see the USA getting the big bump in economic growth or propelled to Super power status. It will likely remain the biggest economy globally followed by the British Empire and then Germany and China. China will see real growth once war ends. I think the British remain an important investor but I suspect Chinese will bias against trade with the British and will nearly boycott Japan. I assume the trade flows to German and then American businesses. Assuming the British Empire survives better and longer and effectively pursues a protectionist agenda then America and Germany will invest in China where they are precluded from British areas. I see Africa more impoverished long term and much of the rest of Asia slumbering on in plantation colonial trade longer. I think the Dutch hold on better and DEI likely becomes the major oil exporter to China. I suspect Indochina sees a lot of food exports to China but I am not versed on China's agricultural output yet. My assumption is that the majority live little better than subsistence.

I have not yet thought through if Germany would invest in heavy industry in China or prefer light industry, at some point China will need to create jobs rather than merely export raw materials. Generally I think China must reform its agricultural sector first. From there the farm equipment and fertilizer business flourishes. Surpluses or cash crop production fuel consumerism and industry. I suspect China goes through a cycle of buying obsolete factories and tooling from Germany, producing older model cars and trucks, tractors or equipment, etc. That should get China to the Seventies when things either boom or bust.

With regards to the first point, I would hesitate to agree. The USA was unashamedly backing China during the Second Sino-Japanese War, and Japan still went full-tilt. China's definitely taking back their land, though. China's definitely getting Manchuria back, at a minimum. They might even end up getting Outer Manchuria, if Stalin fucks up. As for the islands (Diaoyu/Senkaku, Liuqiu/Ryukyu, Taiwan/Formosa), China'll have a hell of a time retaking them, but once they can, they will certainly try. As for Korea, they'd likely want it back... as their puppet.

Mao's getting fucked over. He and Stalin hated each other OTL, and that was with Stalin feeding him some of the most industrialized areas of China + Japanese weapons and tanks. Some of the more nationalistic communists might defect outright - many of the communists were nationalists (in the political sense, rather than the party sense) as well.

As for the USA, they're not getting superpower if there's no WWII. WWII killed off/left for dead/beat the shit out of those who could have become superpowers, and gave the USA the position to revitalize themselves by holding everybody up.

As for industry, agreed, your points there make excellent sense.
 
With regards to the first point, I would hesitate to agree. The USA was unashamedly backing China during the Second Sino-Japanese War, and Japan still went full-tilt. China's definitely taking back their land, though. China's definitely getting Manchuria back, at a minimum. They might even end up getting Outer Manchuria, if Stalin fucks up. As for the islands (Diaoyu/Senkaku, Liuqiu/Ryukyu, Taiwan/Formosa), China'll have a hell of a time retaking them, but once they can, they will certainly try. As for Korea, they'd likely want it back... as their puppet.

Mao's getting fucked over. He and Stalin hated each other OTL, and that was with Stalin feeding him some of the most industrialized areas of China + Japanese weapons and tanks. Some of the more nationalistic communists might defect outright - many of the communists were nationalists (in the political sense, rather than the party sense) as well.

As for the USA, they're not getting superpower if there's no WWII. WWII killed off/left for dead/beat the shit out of those who could have become superpowers, and gave the USA the position to revitalize themselves by holding everybody up.

As for industry, agreed, your points there make excellent sense.

Thank you. I am by no means an expert on China and my thinking is rather broadly brushed but I am trying to consider how China reawakes in these circumstances. My hesitation on Japan is that I think the diplomatic break from Britain post WNT and the apparent weakness of European powers emboldened its actions. I tend to agree that for Japan's militarists China was too vital and too fearsome, sadly they would have better played the anti-Imperialist card to supplant the Europeans and become the Industrial trade partner that here I have Germany assuming. In this twist of fate Germany might get the economic miracle on time but fuelled by its ties to China. I have not yet focused in any depth but it is fascinating.

Indeed I am interested in the possibility of many Communists moving back to the KMT, I think too often in the West the nationalism is overlooked as we play up the ideology divide. Thus I know my thinking is shaded to see the KMT have a stronger left gravity in time and longer term might give it in effect a serious Social Democratic power base as the polity moves from a "one-party" to a plurality. Thus I sort of stop around 1970-something as the Chiang years of "dictatorship" sunset. Overall I am seeing China emerge as a genuine Great Power here and a serious economic player globally both earlier and hopefully to the benefit of a great cross-section of the populace. I am hopefully it is more sustainable and not fully built on merely exploiting cheap labor too.
 
I can definitly see there being a lot less hostility between Germany and the USA ittl because of that, yes. I'm wondering how American business would try to gain financial advantages from MItteleuropa and the effect that would have on long term American policy.
I could certainly envision an US-German trade agreement, that in lots of pages full of fancy words basically trades access to Mitteleuropa for American companies in exchange for access to the US Empire in Central America for German companies. If that happened then the US would have a vested interest in not letting the USSR require German clients in Eastern Europe, likewise Germany will oppose any communist movements in the US hemisphere.
The "problem" is, that this would make the world a lot more stable. Hardly the basis for an alternate WW2 scenario. You might want to consider having German-Soviet relations being much more frosty than proposed "pragmatic exchange of raw materials for machinery" and instead have there be an alliance of convenience between the USSR and a revanchist UK ruled by a national-populist more-extreme-than-OTL Labour Party.
Those two together would make a credible counterweight. Especially if German-US relations are friendly but not allied akin to OTLs interwar Anglo-US relations.
 
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