What if the Nationalists had won in mainland China, but Mao's Communists set up shop in Manchuria as a separate nation that claimed to be the real Chinese government like the RoC in OTL Taiwan?
I was going to mention that, though I'd have no idea what the POD is for that scenario; my good guess is that Chiang decides to focus on establishing his rule in the south instead of marching north in March 1946.There was a scenario in "What If" called "China without tears" covering this exact subject. The postulated outcome is that NatChi thrives while communist Manchuria withers, eventually leading to a German-style reunification after or around the fall of the USSR.
There was a scenario in "What If" called "China without tears" covering this exact subject. The postulated outcome is that NatChi thrives while communist Manchuria withers, eventually leading to a German-style reunification after or around the fall of the USSR.
Wasnt Manchuria still ethnically distinct from the core of China back then? I dont think they'd want reunification any more than the Tibetans wanted it.There was a scenario in "What If" called "China without tears" covering this exact subject. The postulated outcome is that NatChi thrives while communist Manchuria withers, eventually leading to a German-style reunification after or around the fall of the USSR.
90% of Manchuria was Han Chinese, mostly from Shandong and Hebei.Wasnt Manchuria still ethnically distinct from the core of China back then? I dont think they'd want reunification any more than the Tibetans wanted it.
Manchuria only had 1/3 of Hebei and none of Shangdong, maybe you meant Liaodong?90% of Manchuria was Han Chinese, mostly from Shandong and Hebei.
By the end of the Cold War it'd more be a question of if the average ROC Chinese would want to accept poor ex-communists into their country.
What I meant was that the population of Manchuria (the three provinces of Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang) consisted mostly of Han Chinese who had emigrated there from Hebei and Shandong due to overpopulation and poverty. By the time Japan had taken over the area, it was already demographically Han beyond dispute.Manchuria only had 1/3 of Hebei and none of Shangdong, maybe you meant Liaodong?
Come to think of it, there was a major communist presence in the Shanxi province, which would have been the target of Chiang's forces had he focused on the south.The plot in “What If” supposes a Korean scenario where all Communists are somehow eliminated outside of Manchuria like how South Korea liquidated their Communists, with infiltration and control completely cut off. This was made possible because of Korea’s unique peninsular geography.
China OTOH is huge and the Communists were deeply embedded. Nationalist China is more likely to look like South Vietnam, with significant Communist guerrilla organization taking cues from the government in Manchuria. Therefore I don’t believe Nationalist China will accept peace with Communist Manchuria. It’s hard to see how the Communist insurgency would end when they have a Soviet backed base in Manchuria with more people than Germany and control half of the country’s heavy industry and all of its oil.
Neither side would settle for anything less than total victory.
A possibility yes, but the USSR will have them on a tighter leash.So, what about the possibility Manchuria goes insane, turning into a "mega-North Korea"?