Nationalist China, Communist Manchuria

What if the Nationalists had won in mainland China, but Mao's Communists set up shop in Manchuria as a separate nation that claimed to be the real Chinese government like the RoC in OTL Taiwan?
 
There was a scenario in "What If" called "China without tears" covering this exact subject. The postulated outcome is that NatChi thrives while communist Manchuria withers, eventually leading to a German-style reunification after or around the fall of the USSR.
 
There was a scenario in "What If" called "China without tears" covering this exact subject. The postulated outcome is that NatChi thrives while communist Manchuria withers, eventually leading to a German-style reunification after or around the fall of the USSR.
I was going to mention that, though I'd have no idea what the POD is for that scenario; my good guess is that Chiang decides to focus on establishing his rule in the south instead of marching north in March 1946.
 
There was a scenario in "What If" called "China without tears" covering this exact subject. The postulated outcome is that NatChi thrives while communist Manchuria withers, eventually leading to a German-style reunification after or around the fall of the USSR.

I've read it; while I find the scenario fairly interesting, I think the author focuses a bit too much of the conventional military campaign and neglects to take into account the effects of the deep corruption/divisions within the Nationalist faction and the sympathies the Communists had built among the hearts and minds of the common people. This could, of course, be fixed in a couple of decades, but Nationalist China would no doubt have to deal with low-level insurgencies and suffer issues with centralization for at least a little while post-War. I also speculate Communist Manchuria is going to be tied to the economy of the Soviet Far East somehow; Vladivostok probably develops into a larger urban area than in our timeline, as the Soviets will want to strengthen their position in the region to prop up and profit from North Korea and Manchuria.
 
Well, If we had a Nationalist China then it would be like OTL's authoritarian-era South Korea where it would be ruled by a dictator but as the years go by and the government changes new presidents are elected and eventually by the 80s or so full-fledged democracy would come. A modern-day Nationalist China that I see would more or less be an economic giant (like South Korea) and be a multi-party democracy it also means Taiwan would become a part of this nation. A Communist Manchuria could either be reunified with China or it stays separate and a Communist Manchuria would be a one-party state with a socialist free-market authoritarian (like OTL China) in contrast to China.
 
There was a scenario in "What If" called "China without tears" covering this exact subject. The postulated outcome is that NatChi thrives while communist Manchuria withers, eventually leading to a German-style reunification after or around the fall of the USSR.
Wasnt Manchuria still ethnically distinct from the core of China back then? I dont think they'd want reunification any more than the Tibetans wanted it.
 
Wasnt Manchuria still ethnically distinct from the core of China back then? I dont think they'd want reunification any more than the Tibetans wanted it.
90% of Manchuria was Han Chinese, mostly from Shandong and Hebei.

By the end of the Cold War it'd more be a question of if the average ROC Chinese would want to accept poor ex-communists into their country.
 
90% of Manchuria was Han Chinese, mostly from Shandong and Hebei.

By the end of the Cold War it'd more be a question of if the average ROC Chinese would want to accept poor ex-communists into their country.
Manchuria only had 1/3 of Hebei and none of Shangdong, maybe you meant Liaodong?
 
Manchuria only had 1/3 of Hebei and none of Shangdong, maybe you meant Liaodong?
What I meant was that the population of Manchuria (the three provinces of Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang) consisted mostly of Han Chinese who had emigrated there from Hebei and Shandong due to overpopulation and poverty. By the time Japan had taken over the area, it was already demographically Han beyond dispute.
 
The plot in “What If” supposes a Korean scenario where all Communists are somehow eliminated outside of Manchuria like how South Korea liquidated their Communists, with infiltration and control completely cut off. This was made possible because of Korea’s unique peninsular geography.

China OTOH is huge and the Communists were deeply embedded. Nationalist China is more likely to look like South Vietnam, with significant Communist guerrilla organization taking cues from the government in Manchuria. Therefore I don’t believe Nationalist China will accept peace with Communist Manchuria. It’s hard to see how the Communist insurgency would end when they have a Soviet backed base in Manchuria with more people than Germany and control half of the country’s heavy industry and all of its oil.

Neither side would settle for anything less than total victory.
 
The plot in “What If” supposes a Korean scenario where all Communists are somehow eliminated outside of Manchuria like how South Korea liquidated their Communists, with infiltration and control completely cut off. This was made possible because of Korea’s unique peninsular geography.

China OTOH is huge and the Communists were deeply embedded. Nationalist China is more likely to look like South Vietnam, with significant Communist guerrilla organization taking cues from the government in Manchuria. Therefore I don’t believe Nationalist China will accept peace with Communist Manchuria. It’s hard to see how the Communist insurgency would end when they have a Soviet backed base in Manchuria with more people than Germany and control half of the country’s heavy industry and all of its oil.

Neither side would settle for anything less than total victory.
Come to think of it, there was a major communist presence in the Shanxi province, which would have been the target of Chiang's forces had he focused on the south.
 
Good timing too (sorry for the double post), as the "What If" book just came in today and from I gather from it, it'd take Chiang to either stand down from marching into Manchuria or the Soviet refusal to withdraw from Manchuria to accomplish this.
 
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