NASA's Waterloo: A Realistic Mission to Mars Post Apollo

[prolemasses]

And we're back!

Part III Chapter 1:

“The ultimate in hydrogen motors is the nuclear rocket. As we have seen, the way to get a really high performance is to heat hydrogen to 2000 K or so, and then expand it through a nozzle. A graphite-moderated enriched uranium reactor is the energy source, and the hydrogen is the working fluid.”

-Ignition! An Informal History of Liquid Rocket Propellants John D. Clark, 1972


One of the most important enabling technologies for the Ares program was Nuclear Thermal Propulsion. This new type of rocket would use a nuclear core to heat up liquid hydrogen, which would be used to generate thrust. Doing so would nearly the double the efficiency compared to hydrogen/oxygen engines. This increase in efficiency would cut down the mass in orbit needed for each Ares mission by nearly a factor of two. Still, despite these savings, out of the four launches required for each flight to Mars, three would carry Planetary Propulsion Modules. Like every other major component of the mission, the PPM was more complicated than and would need to be more reliable than, any previous piece of hardware launched into space. Each PPM would carry 170 tons of hydrogen propellant and would mass 75 tons dry. It would be powered by 2 NR-1 Nuclear Thermal Rocket engines, each having a specific impulse of 850 seconds. The PPM would have to be able to prevent the hydrogen from boiling off for almost two years, and would accomplish this using a complicated system involving heat radiator panels, refrigeration and reliquification systems, and thick layers of insulation.


These critical technologies would be tested in October of 1973 by the Technology Demonstration Flight 1. TDF-1 would be launched on the final flight of the Saturn 1B. The TDF-1 payload was just a small prototype of the cryogenic storage equipment, and some solar panels to power it. TDF-1 lifted off on the 11th, and reached orbit with plenty of propellant left in the S-IVB. Using the new equipment, and extra insulation installed on the S-IVB, ground control monitored how much hydrogen boiled off over the next few weeks on orbit. The results were disappointing. Although the modifications limited boil off to just 0.5% per week, that would still equate to 46% losses over the 92 week flight to Mars. Further improvements would be needed.


On March 15, 1975, a Saturn V lifted off from Florida, carrying a very special payload. This flight, labeled as simply TDF-2, would be the first in flight test of the NR-2 NTR engine. Like on TDF-1, the payload on this flight was a modified S-IVB. This time however, the oxygen tank on the S-IVB had been removed, and the hydrogen tank extended. The lower density of hydrogen meant that only around 22 tons of propellant were carried. In fact, due to the added mass of insulation, cryogenic storage equipment, shielding, and the NR-2 itself, the dry mass of the S-IVN upper stage was greater than the propellant carried, at over 24 tons. This payload was far less than the capacity of the Saturn V, so the extra performance was used to lift the S-IVN into a higher orbit, to prevent it from impacting Earth if it failed. The presence of a nuclear reactor aboard TDF-2 led a few environmental activists to protest the launch, but the general public response was curiosity. It had to be explained to many that this rocket stage was not powered by nuclear bombs, but more mundane hydrogen.


Despite the low mass fraction, the S-IVN had over 5 kilometers per second of Delta V. This capacity would not be used in full however, as the second goal of the TDF-2 mission was to demonstrate more advanced long term cryogenic storage techniques. After a few test fires of the NR-2, the stage was essentially just left on orbit for a few weeks to test the technology. This time, results were more promising, with boil off reduced to just 0.07% per month. Improvements would be needed, but the test was declared successful. After the cryo tests, the NR-2 was reignited, and sent into orbit around the sun, onto a trajectory that would not have a chance to impact Earth for over a million years. Ares mission planners had reached out to the unmanned exploration division, and asked if any one wanted to fly their probe on TDF-2. The requirements were that it mass under 200kg, not require any specific launch window, and, obviously, be ok with flying on a test flight of a nuclear rocket. Taken aback, several different teams quickly worked to develop a design. In the end, the Solar Environment Explorer was chosen. SEE was based on the same design as the cancelled Mercury Mariner spacecraft, and would study solar winds and the makeup of the sun. The S-IVN placed it onto an inclined orbit that almost reached Mercury's orbit, and the spacecraft separated and began its mission on May 9.


Originally, NASA had decided to use all five of the Saturn Vs left over from Apollo for test flights. Two were intended to launch the Skylab and Starlab space stations, one would be used for the nuclear test, and two would be used for testing the MEM. However, the Saturn VB would be flying by 1977, and the new rocket was different enough from the Saturn V that substantial modifications would need to be made to the pad. So it was decided that no Saturn Vs would fly after 1975. The MEM tests would instead fly on the Saturn VA (a variant of the VB without boosters) starting in 1978. This would leave two Saturn Vs unused. It was decided to fly a repeat of the TDF-2 mission using one of them, and so, after the launch of Starlab in July of 1975, TDF-3 lifted off in November. The flight path was almost identical, with the cryogenic storage tests going a little better. A critical test performed by the TDF-3 flight was multiple restarts of the NR-2 engine. For a mission to Mars, each engine would have to restart three times, and so this capability was critical. The S-IVN would raise and lower its orbit over several months. Finally, the stage was fired a final time to launch it into a heliocentric orbit. This time however, the disposal orbit was launched outwards, past the orbit of Mars. Like with TDF-2, a “hitchhiker payload” flew along, however, this time it was an engineering payload. The “Deep Space Radiation Experiment” separated from the stage, and once it was sufficiently clear from any interference from the engine, began examining the levels of radiation a spacecraft would experience traveling to Mars. This was a relatively new concern that scientists had for a Mars mission. Throughout late 1972 and early 1973, solar activity rose to an all time high. Massive solar flares spat out radiation into space. The crew of Skylab were protected by the natural magnetic field of Earth, but had any astronauts been traveling to the Moon or Mars at that point, they might have received a potentially fatal dose of solar radiation. The designers studying how to build a habitat to sustain crews on the way to Mars began including additional radiation shielding into their designs. In the center of the habitat would also be a “Storm Shelter”, to protect the crew. The spacecraft would also be oriented so that the propulsion a structural elements of the ship would be positioned between the crew and the sun, to further shield them. DSRE measured the radiation levels, and also tested out shielding technologies.


After this flight, the last unused Saturn V, SA-514, would join the ground test vehicles as a museum piece, and would be put on display at the Johnson Space Center in Houston. It remained the last of the original production run Saturn Vs.

 

[Michel Van]

i just borrow that from Another TL
but it give good impression how TDF-1 and 2 could look like

 

[prolemasses]

i just borrow that from Another TL
but it give good impression how TDF-1 and 2 could look like

Whoa, neat!

 

[prolemasses]

Part III Chapter 2:

“Houbolt eat your heart out. Apollo was peanuts compared to this.”

-Unknown author, found written on a chalkboard after an all night Ares mission planning session.


Planning the Ares mission schedule was one of the more delicate parts of the Mars program. The timing of the mission was the first thing that needed to be decided on. Transfer windows to Mars only came up every 26 months, so missing a window would mean waiting over two years. The first thing that was decided upon was that the 1979 launch window was too optimistic. Early on planners decided that a manned mission to Mars orbit should precede the landing. Thus, at least initially, the orbital flight would go ahead by 1979, the landing in 1981, with a follow up landing in 1983 that NASA was planning for, but who’s funding was somewhat nebulous. When delays occurred in developing the Saturn VB and the MEM, the orbital mission was pushed back to 1981, the landing to 1983, and landing two to 1986.


Due to the delayed flight schedule, it became clear that another Astronaut group would be needed for the Mars flights. The crews hired for Apollo, along with the Group 6 Scientist-Astronauts, and the Group 7 transfers from the cancelled MOL program would be sufficient for the Starlab program and the Ares test flights, but more specialised crew would be needed for flights to Mars. There was also a feeling within NASA that, with America becoming more diverse, the all male, all white, mostly test pilot, astronaut corps should also be made more diverse. The actual Ares program, with 5 crew members per flight, and 3 flights currently being planned for, would thus need 30 trained crews and backups. NASA estimated that their current crews could fulfill some of those roles, so a call went out in 1976 for applicants, from which the top twenty would be selected. In the end, twenty one were selected, as, like the Mercury 7, the group could not be whittled down farther. Group 8, known as the “New Guys” would be specially trained from the start for the flight to Mars*. Among those selected were three women (Rhea Seddon, Kathryn Sullivan, and Judith Resnik) and two African-Americans (Guion Bluford and Ronald McNair). At the same time, the specific mission roles were outlined for the Ares program. On each flight, the crews would be separated into two groups, the “Surface” crew, and the “Orbital” crew. In the orbital crew, there would be the “CSM Pilot”, who, in addition to flying the CSM, would also be in charge of flying the entire Mars spacecraft. Also staying on orbit would be a “Mission Specialist”, a scientist who would lead the orbital crew’s scientific activities during their stay at Mars. In the surface crew, there was the Commander, who would be in charge of the mission as a whole, and along with the “MEM Pilot”, pilot the MEM on ascent and descent. The MEM Pilot would also assist the CSM Pilot when it came to flying the mothership. The third member of the surface crew was another Mission Specialist, who would be trained specifically on Martian geology and chemistry and help search for life on the red world.


While the new crews were being selected and trained, NASA’s current astronauts were continuing to help prepare for Ares. In February of 1975, the first test flight of the Saturn II lifted off, also carrying the first Apollo Block III into orbit. The flight was unmanned, and the Apollo was not a finished spacecraft. This flight was mostly about testing the Saturn II. The new service module of Apollo was tested on orbit. A mass simulator sat below the CSM in the place of the Orbital Module. The new rocket flew perfectly, and so did the CSM. After a few days on orbit, the CSM returned home. The new land based recovery systems were tested out as well, with the capsule coming down on parachutes and airbags at the White Sands missile range in New Mexico. After this success, a second mission lifted off in April, also carrying an unmanned Block III CSM. Due to a desire to hurry along Starlab and the deteriorating condition of Skylab, this flight would replace the planned Skylab 6 mission. This unmanned flight also carried the first Orbital Module. Under ground control, the CSM performed the transposition and docking maneuver with no crew aboard, a first. After extracting the cylindrical Orbital Module, the unmanned craft traveled to Skylab and docked, again autonomously. For the next 118 days, the CSM would be monitored from the ground, to test the long endurance capabilities of the new capsule. At the end of its mission, the service module engine was fired, to deorbit Skylab.


Before Skylab reentered however, its replacement was already being prepared for launch. Starlab was rolled out to the pad on top of the final Saturn V. Starlab was a whole new beast, improving on Skylab in every way. The station was capable of being restocked with propellant, water, and oxygen on orbit, and was designed to facilitate crew resupply. Unlike on Skylab, the oxygen tank of the S-IVB Starlab was modified from was also fitted for habitation, giving the crew more storage space, and more living space. Starlab could support a crew of five for long durations in space. To free up mass, the Apollo Telescope Mount was deleted. Starlab was also launched into a lower inclination 30 degree orbit, to further increase launch mass. The station was absolutely packed with consumables, and actually approached the launch limits of the two stage Saturn V lifting it. That Saturn V lifted off on July 22, carrying the station into its planned orbit. Just a day later, Starlab 2 launched from LC-34, the first manned flight of the Saturn II and the Block III CSM. Commanded by moonwalker Pete Conrad, with former MOL astronaut Richard Truly, and scientist-astronaut Story Musgrave, Starlab 2 was a real cross section of NASA's finest.


The crew arrived at the new station, and found that this time, it was functioning just fine. The crew would stay for four months, outfitting the station, and making sure everything was in tip top shape. The Starlab 3 crew launched while they were still on orbit, and briefly, Starlab supported 6 crew. This practice kept the station permanently manned, and would become the standard for all future flights. Crew rotations would initially occur every four months. Also, starting with William Lenoir who flew up on Starlab 5, and returned on Starlab 6, NASA began flying “double shift” long duration flights. This would free up a seat aboard the CSM, and would allow for international astronauts to fly up to Starlab for a week between crew rotations. ESRO astronaut Ulf Merbold was flown in the gap created by Lenoir's long duration stay, going up with the crew of Starlab 6, and returning with the crew of Starlab 5. Starting with the crew of Starlab 5 in 1976, mission durations were set at six months, and starting with Starlab 8, crews were increased to five. This increase in crew size, combined with fewer flights per year, meant that in 1978, NASA began flying “resupply flights” that would travel to Starlab, carry supplies, stay for a few days, and return home. While crews disliked these “milk runs” such flights were necessary to support the longer and longer flights, and also allowed for additional opportunities to fly international astronauts.


The development of long duration spaceflight experience was Starlab's raison d'etre, and it was intense. From the get go, Starlab carried experiments that tested closed cycle life support that needed no resupply for a year, on mice. Starlab's oxygen recycling system was gradually upgraded, until it reached over 95% efficiency by 1979. The crews performed experiments to test out the effects of long duration spaceflight on their bodies. They tested out exercise techniques and lifestyle changes to mitigate those effects. In the crowning achievement of the program, Story Musgrave and Karol Bobko flew a “triple shift” flight from 1979 to 1980, remaining on orbit for over a year and a half. The results of these experiments were somewhat of a relief to engineers on the ground. It was determined that though the effects of microgravity on the body were detrimental, they were not so harmful, as to warrant any kind of artificial gravity aboard the spacecraft to Mars.


In addition to the hard data returned by Starlab, crews also spent their time doing more mundane things. Many astronauts snapped photos of the Earth, and many books full of images from Starlab would be published. NASA also produced several educational videos in space, to demonstrate physics concepts on orbit. Photos of astronauts floating upside down, playing the guitar, and even hanging up Christmas lights, became iconic images of the program. Starlab served as a platform that enabled not technology testing, but public outreach on a previously unseen way. Experiments designed by college students and school children were flown into space. Astronauts gave TV interviews and made radio broadcasts from space. Through it all, NASA made sure to remind everyone that this was all helping the mission to Mars. A public that had been losing interest in spaceflight was drawn back in by Starlab, if not to the same degree as the heights of Apollo and Gemini.


Starlab would remain on orbit until 1983, when the station was deorbited after serving faithfully for more than eight years. The station joined it's sibling as it reentered over the Pacific burning up, with the debris sinking into the ocean depths.


*Author's Note: I will be sticking to real historical people for astronauts in this timeline, no fictional astronauts, for now at least.

 

[prolemasses]

Part III Chapter 3:

“Some say we accomplished more with less, that Salyut tested out the same technologies as Skylab, but at a smaller cost. I say that Salyut was cramped and moldy, and that the toilet never worked.”

-Memoirs of Cosmonaut Viktor Patsayev


The Soviet Salyut program was never really in the public eye to the same degree as Skylab or Starlab had been. Part of this was due to the natural secrecy of the Soviet space program, but also, Salyut did nothing better or first compared to Skylab, aside from a few early long duration records. After Salyut 1 was retired, it's successor was launched in June of 1973. Salyut 2 would support four separate crews, culminating in the Soyuz 17 mission, which stayed in space for 102 days, (September to December 1974). After Soyuz 17, Salyut 2 was pretty much out of commission, it's propellant running low, and the consumables nearly exhausted. To follow up on Salyut 2, a new station was being developed, planned for launch by mid 1975. This next generation Salyut would be larger, taking full advantage of the increased lift capacity of the N11F Proton. It would mass 28,000kg at launch, and would be fitted with two docking ports. This would allow for two spacecraft to dock at a time, allowing for crew rotations on orbit. The new Soyuz-T would also allow for crews to be increased to three, starting as early as 1976. Also, the next generation station was capable of resupply by the new “Progress” supply vehicle, derived from Soyuz. This would permit long term spaceflights, just like Starlab, and would help with development of the Soviet Mars flyby program. With the Americans pushing even their Mars orbital flight back to 1981, optimism was high that the Soviets could beat the Americans to reaching Mars. After that, an even more capable Soviet space station would be launched. There was debate within on whether to launch such a station in one go aboard an N1, or to assemble it using multiple of the DOS modules used for Salyut. Either way, the path for Soviet domination of space seemed to be through space stations.


Before the new station could fly, another Soviet space station was lifted in March of 1975. Salyut 3 was not actually a civilian Salyut space station, but a military Almaz station. It had been renamed to hide it's true purpose. Two previous attempts to launch an Almaz station had resulted in failure, with the flights being given the generic “Kosmos” label the Soviets often applied to test flights and failures. Though the Americans had cancelled their own manned military spacecraft, Salyut 3 would serve as a testbed for military technology, and as a manned spy satellite. Salyut 3 was equipped with powerful optics, and even a self defense 23mm cannon. On March 11, Soyuz 18 lifted off, carrying Yuri Artyukhin and Gennadi Sarafanov. They docked with the military space station on the 13th, and settled in for their 56 day secret mission. Right away, the results were less than promising. The idea of a “manned spy satellite” with human intelligence being used to decide what to image proved to be not so great in execution. The images snapped by the cosmonauts could not be timed to the same degree as an automated probe. Also, the small vibrations and movements induced by the two crew members, led to some images being blurry or off target. However, most of this was only know to the crew, as they were supposed to snap photos and perform reconnaissance, and then return the results to Earth. The ELINT (Electronics Intelligence) and SIGINT (Signals Intelligence) experiments performed fine, but no better than a spy satellite, which could be operated for a cost that was almost an order of magnitude lower. The Almaz program was not returning great results.


However, on March 29, less than halfway into the mission, ground control lost contact with the crew. Attempts to re-establish contact proved unsuccessful, and ground based radar quickly revealed that something tragic had occurred. Salyut 3 was now tumbling, and surrounded by a cloud of hundreds of pieces of debris. Though there was some hope that whatever happened had merely damaged communications, and the crew was evacuating, within an hour, it became clear that Yuri Artyukhin and Gennadi Sarafanov had not survived. An investigation would determine that some kind of explosion had occurred, which had punched a hole in the pressure vessel of Salyut. The rapid loss of pressure killed the crew in seconds. There was furious debate over what had caused the explosion. The blame was placed everywhere from the station's propulsion systems, to the gun exploding. Eventually, after several months, a commission determined that faulty wiring in the stirring fans within one of the oxygen tanks was to blame. The Soviets had lost cosmonauts on the ground, and even lost Boris Volynov during the reentry of Soyuz 1. However, no nation had yet lost a man in space. Sympathies poured in from around the world. The secret military mission of Salyut 3 would be kept secret for more than 40 years. The Soyuz 18 tragedy would spell the end for the Almaz program, and would delay the launch of Soyuz 4 (the next generation station) for over a year. This would have knock on effects throughout the Soviet space program.


Worried American engineers performed even more checks on Starlab than even the safety obsessed NASA usually demanded. They saw the disaster as frightfully similar to Apollo 10, and saw what could have happened, if they'd been less lucky. Thankfully, their station would end up operating without any problems, but the spectre of Soyuz 18 would hang over both America and the Soviet Union as they continued to explore space.


During the stand down, Mishin and his team continued to study trajectories for the flyby. A flyby in the much coveted 1979 launch window was looking less and less likely. Such a flyby would require a mission duration close to three years, and that could not be prepared for. There were less than three years between the launch window and the projected launch date of Salyut 4! Planners rejected such a mission outright, as they could risk losing crew. Mishin worried that they would lose out to the Americans even with a simpler Mars flyby.


Salyut 4 was launched in June of 1976. The new station was set to testing long duration flights right away, with the second crew to man the station staying for 8 months. Progress cargo ships began arriving in early 1977, quickly followed by the three man Soyuz-T. Using a similar “double shift” strategy to the Americans, the Soviets were able to conduct multiple year long flights aboard Salyut 4. In addition to these flights, the Soviets also performed extensive ground based testing. They ran ground based simulated Mars missions, tested closed loop life support, and continued to develop the skills necessary to beat the Americans. In 1979, the crew of Salyut 4 Expedition 9 ate the first meal prepared using plants grown in space. Salyut 4 was scheduled to be replaced by Salyut 5 sometime in mid 1980. Salyut 5 would include expanded scientific capabilities, enabled by a world first: on orbit assembly of a space station. The Kvant biological sciences module would be derived from a Soyuz orbital module, and would be docked to the station by a Soyuz service module, using the same automated rendezvous techniques as Progress. It was hoped that the advanced Soviet station program would enable the Soviet to once again leapfrog the Americans, like they had in the past.

 

[prolemasses]

Part III Chapter 4:

“While Viking had been planned to search Mars for life, Pathfinder prepared life to travel to Mars.”

-NASA netsite, 2005


On August 19, 1975, while the Starlab program was consuming much of NASA's attention, a Saturn II lifted off from LC-37. Aboard was Pathfinder 1, the first American spacecraft headed for the surface of Mars. Just a week later, it's companion lifted off from LC-34, the same pad that had launched the first crew to Starlab a month prior. The two spacecraft were not alone in their journey to the red planet. Also launched in the 1975 window were the Soviet Mars 6 and 7 spacecraft. The “Mars Armada”, departing in late summer of 1975, would reach the red planet at different times. The Soviet craft, who would not need to insert into Mars orbit, took a faster path, reaching Mars by March of 1976. The flyby probes separated from their landers, which approached the planet at high speed. A miscalculation caused the Mars 7 lander to miss the planet entirely. The Mars 6 lander however, was marginally more successful. The lander successfully entered Mars's atmosphere, using the drag to slow down from interplanetary velocity. Then, after the craft was slowed sufficiently, the heatshield was ditched, the retro rockets slowed the lander, and then, like the Luna 9 probe, airbags were deployed to cushion the craft for it's final landing.


Due to the Mars 4 and 5 orbiters not being operational when the probe reached Mars, the lander would only have a short window to relay it's data as the flyby craft passed by. Mars 6 transmitted the first images from the surface of Mars, and relayed readings on the Martian atmosphere, weather, and radiation environment. Both the Prop M micro rover, and the primitive life searching equipment aboard the lander failed to deploy, but the Soviets declared the Mars 6 mission a success.


Due to being heavier, and desiring a trajectory that would minimise the fuel needed for orbital insertion, the Pathfinder craft took a longer, nearly 11 month route to Mars. However, in June 1976, the orbital stages of both craft placed each of them into orbit around the red planet. Cameras onboard confirmed that the Martian weather was clear, but the original landing site chosen for Pathfinder 2 was deemed too rocky. Pathfinder 1 went ahead however. It separated from the orbital stage and fire it's retro rockets to place it onto a suborbital trajectory. Pathfinder had a similar shape to the Apollo command module, just like the MEM, and a critical part of it's mission was testing this shape for Mars landing. Pathfinder 1 entered the Martian atmosphere, and it's heatshield began to glow. Like the Apollo CM, Pathfinder's center of mass was slightly off center, which allowed it to control the angle of attack of the capsule, just by rolling. This allowed a lifting reentry, bleeding off speed. The descent was entirely automated, necessitated by the several minute signal delay. Pathfinder tested out a smaller version of the “ballute” that was planned for use on the MEM. After slowing sufficiently, the heatshield was jettisoned, revealing the landing retro engines. They fired to slow Pathfinder 1 for it's final soft landing, touching down in Chryse Planitia on July 4, 1976, the bicentennial of the United States.


Once it was confirmed that Pathfinder 1 was safely down, cheers erupted at NASA. The landing system had been confirmed! While the probe was still transmitting its “ok” signal home, other components were coming online. The probe was powered by a small nuclear RTG, to allow it to survive through the Martian nights. Pathfinder carried several engineering payloads, as well as scientific ones. The main surface payload was the Mars In-Situ Experiment. MISE would test out extracting oxygen from the Martian atmosphere, to extend the life support systems of the MEM while on the Martian surface. In addition, Pathfinder tested the radiation environment of Mars, and the surface makeup, to ensure that they were not prohibitively hazardous to human health. The expensive life searching laboratory planned for Viking was not included, but several small scientific payloads were carried. Pathfinder probed the Martian soil, searching for compounds that might indicate life. The results were inconclusive, with no clear signs of life demonstrated. The probes also also contained cameras to capture the Martian surface, and horizon. Photos taken by the Pathfinder probes would make headlines across the country. They were of much higher quality than the Soviet first photos, which hadn't even been in color. Pathfinder 2 followed it's twin two weeks later, touching down in Utopia Planitia, on the other side of the planet. The Pathfinder probes were judged a complete success, demonstrating technologies critical for the MEM, and Ares as a whole.

 

[Wolttaire]

Could you index the update before this

 

[Athelstane]

Truly this is a miracle: A Russian robotic mission to Mars that actually works. Sort of.

 

[Athelstane]

I'm enjoying the timeline greatly, by the way, and it's only when I enjoy a timeline that I feel any impulse to offer niggles.

I think the Soyuz 18 disaster is quite plausible, and indeed, I sometimes marvel that the Soviets were as lucky as they were with the Salyut line of stations - it's a reasonable karmic correction for their good run in the late 60's, perhaps. But I do think that a disaster like this would almost certainly put paid to any Soviet interplanetary missions that could be done to beat the Americans to Mars. Too many things on the critical path to such a mission would be called into question, requiring lengthy investigation and redesign. And after all, we are talking about Brezhnev here, not Khrushchev. Losing another set of cosmonauts in space would be more embarrassing than simply refusing the challenge (which was the calculation made by Moscow in OTL in 1968).

More likely, I could see Soviet leadership taking sober stock of this difficulty, and working hard to try some other (more achievable) high profile stunt which could at least steal a little thunder from the Americans. Setting an endurance record in LEO won't do much in that regard. But they still have the hardware to go to the Moon, and the Moon is a lot closer than Mars. Modification of existing hardware to allow two cosmonauts to go, or to extend the stay, might be worth a look. And bring a better video camera.

Another possibility: If the bugs can be worked out of Salyut in time, it looks to me like they have the TLI capability to send one to a high lunar orbit; perhaps use it to do a 30 day mapping mission.

In the (much more ambitious) alternative, a Venus fly-by requires less delta-v, and has more frequent launch windows, than Mars. Still a damned long trip, however, and if you don't have confidence in your habitat life support systems, it's just as risky as going to Mars.

But I'm sure you've already got this timeline mapped out, so - keep at it, I'll keep reading.

 

[prolemasses]

I'm enjoying the timeline greatly, by the way, and it's only when I enjoy a timeline that I feel any impulse to offer niggles.

I think the Soyuz 18 disaster is quite plausible, and indeed, I sometimes marvel that the Soviets were as lucky as they were with the Salyut line of stations - it's a reasonable karmic correction for their good run in the late 60's, perhaps. But I do think that a disaster like this would almost certainly put paid to any Soviet interplanetary missions that could be done to beat the Americans to Mars. Too many things on the critical path to such a mission would be called into question, requiring lengthy investigation and redesign. And after all, we are talking about Brezhnev here, not Khrushchev. Losing another set of cosmonauts in space would be more embarrassing than simply refusing the challenge (which was the calculation made by Moscow in OTL in 1968).

More likely, I could see Soviet leadership taking sober stock of this difficulty, and working hard to try some other (more achievable) high profile stunt which could at least steal a little thunder from the Americans. Setting an endurance record in LEO won't do much in that regard. But they still have the hardware to go to the Moon, and the Moon is a lot closer than Mars. Modification of existing hardware to allow two cosmonauts to go, or to extend the stay, might be worth a look. And bring a better video camera.

Another possibility: If the bugs can be worked out of Salyut in time, it looks to me like they have the TLI capability to send one to a high lunar orbit; perhaps use it to do a 30 day mapping mission.

In the (much more ambitious) alternative, a Venus fly-by requires less delta-v, and has more frequent launch windows, than Mars. Still a damned long trip, however, and if you don't have confidence in your habitat life support systems, it's just as risky as going to Mars.

But I'm sure you've already got this timeline mapped out, so - keep at it, I'll keep reading.

You know what? This really struck me. I'm going to do some editing and see if my story can be changed a little.

 

[prolemasses]

Part III Chapter 5:

“We were offered a glimpse of what had could have been, before it was all snatched away.”

-Pioneer 11 mission scientist, 1983


While the Pathfinder landers wowed the public, made history, and paved the way for Ares, they were not the missions that most in the unmanned sciences division were most excited for throughout the 1970s. That title would fall to the Pioneer 10 and 11 missions. Pioneer 10 and 11 were originally planned as precursors for the Grand Tour spacecraft in the late 70s, after the cancellation of the Grand Tour program, the Pioneer craft remained the “last hope” of the planetary science community. Pioneer 10 was launched on March 2, 1972. The Atlas-Centaur launch vehicle propelled the craft toward Jupiter, making it the fastest man-made object to leave Earth at the time. In July, Pioneer 10 became the first craft to enter the asteroid belt. In December of 1973, Pioneer 10 became the first spacecraft to encounter Jupiter. It captured close up photos of the Great Red Spot, a storm many times the size of Earth, and the Galilean moons. It measure the strength of Jupiter's magnetic field, and the strong radiation belts around Jupiter. By using signal occultation as the probe passed behind the gas giant, direct measurements of Jupiter's atmosphere were obtained. During the Jupiter encounter the probe gained enough velocity to be launched onto escape velocity, becoming the first man-made object to enter onto a course that would fling it out of the solar system. Because of this, both Pioneer probes carried a plaque designed by Frank Drake and Carl Sagan, carrying information on Earth and humans, in case the probe was ever intercepted by an alien race, or humans far into the future.


Pioneer 11 was launched on April 6, 1973. In December of 1974, it too flew by Jupiter, obtaining the first close up images of the icy moon Europa, and clearer images of the volcanic moon Io. However, the gravity assist that Pioneer 11 received from Jupiter propelled it outwards, on track to intercept the planet Saturn. Pioneer 11 became the first spacecraft to visit the ringed giant in September 1979. The probe took stunning images of Saturn, and returned fascinating data on Saturn's moon Titan, the only moon in the solar system with an atmosphere. Pioneer 11 discovered several new moons around Saturn, and nearly collided with one of them, Epimetheus. After the Saturn flyby, Pioneer 11 continued outwards, heading out of the solar system like it's sister ship.


The Soviet scientists, seeking to out do the Americans after they had abandoned the great tour program, began making plans for an outer planets program of their own in the early 70s. Initially, ambitious plans called for something similar to the American proposal, involving four probes, visiting every planet. These plans had to be dropped, in favor of a reduced program, under the project name Yupiter, or Jupiter. As their name implied, the Yupiter probes would be billed as probes aimed only at Jupiter, to reduce projected mission cost. But the longevity of their nuclear power source, their powerful antennas, and a carefully timed launch date, meant that the probes would theoretically be capable of visiting Saturn, and perhaps Uranus and Neptune, if they continued functioning. To support the probes, the Soviets would have to build an equivalent to the American Deep Space Network. By building radio antennas in Poland, Cuba, and the Russian far east, they were able to do this. The construction was spotted by US spy satellites, who worried that the Soviets might be building massive listening stations in Cuba to spy on the continental United States. Eventually, these fears were eased a bit, when it became clear that the giant dishes pointed up and not towards the US.


The Yupiter probes were hurried along, and in August 1977, each was launched, mere days apart, on top of a N11F Proton. Because of the extra margin provided by the Proton, each Yupiter probe was heavier than their Pioneer counterparts. Initially, Soviet scientists had proposed using this extra capability to include landers for the Moons of Jupiter, or atmospheric probes, to be dropped into the gas giants or Titan. Again, these proposals were cut in the name of cost and time, and the extra mass budget was used to add a little more propellant, a backup RTG, and to relax constraints on engineers, to make the craft as reliable as possible. The Protons each performed beautifully, with the Yupiter probes flying outwards, towards the giant planets. In July of 1979, the twin probes flew by Jupiter, snapping more images of the gas giant, and it's Moons. The probes performed spectacularly, returning images of the clouds of Jupiter clearer than those taken by Pioneer, taking the first up close images of the newly discovered Jovian moons and better characterising the magnetic and radiation environment around the king of the solar system.

This success provided a much needed boost to Soviet pride, after the embarrassment of the massive Mars 8 sample return craft, launched atop the N1F Herakles, crashing into Mars in February of 1978. Shortly after the Jupiter encounter though, contact with Yupiter 1 was lost for unknown reasons. Some speculated that perhaps the radiation of Jupiter scrambled it's electronics, causing it to forget to point it's dish in the right direction. Despite the loss, Yupiter 2 continued functioning fine, and was placed on a course that would intercept Saturn in 1981, Uranus in 86, and Neptune in 89. Only time would tell if the probe would last long enough to visit the outer planets, and perhaps restore some hope to those who'd lost it years before, when NASA's chance to do the same had been cut short.

 

[Athelstane]

You know what? This really struck me. I'm going to do some editing and see if my story can be changed a little.

The other thing, too, is that money is a little more precious, I think, to Soviet leadership in 1975 than it was in 1965. They have a much bigger strategic rocket force to maintain, and Gorshkov is busy with his naval buildup. The USSR is also making more money from oil exports in the 70's, but it also needs more of that hard currency to pay for grain imports to cover its increasingly dire agricultural sector. And on top of all that, it now has more client states in the developing world to sustain.

These are the other priorities that a very expensive space program has to compete with. Brezhnev might well feel that the laurels of beating the U.S. to the Moon can last a while, and he just has to keep the Soviet Union in the game with some space presence. The problem of Mars isn't just the destination, but the timeline they need to meet in order to beat the Americans there - and that will ratchet up the cost.

But as I say - do what you're gonna do. I'm enjoying it so far.

 

[Gunnarnz]

Not that I want to interfere, but in OTL the Soviets did a pretty good job of littering Venus with probes, most of which performed better than expected. I was away from rocket scientists school on the day they explained it, but apparently Venus also has some advantages in terms of launch opportunities and transit times. If the Soviets want something else to show they're still contenders, Venus (instead of Mars) might not be a bad option.

 

[prolemasses]

Anyone have any comment on the Soviet Yupiter program?

 

[Bahamut-255]

A valid point. IOTL the USSR were the only ones able to soft-land anything on Venus, their tendency towards big, heavy, robust working to their advantage in the Venusian Environment. IIRC, their first successful Venus Lander was built to withstand 200 Bar Pressure, ensuring that it could physically survive for a time.

 

[Bahamut-255]

The idea that Jupiter's Radiation Belts could play havoc with the Yupiter 1 probe is not unreasonable, given that Said Radiation Belts are some 20,000 times more powerful than that of Earth's, so anything sent into that vicinity must be specially hardened to cope.

That said, usually Soviet Interplanetary Probes would fail after about six months IIRC. I think this was on account of using Aluminium Covers instead of Gold, so over time their electronics would take more damage.

Unless they saw fit to use Gold Covering on the Yupiter Probes (the earlier Pioneers might have swayed such a decision), then I can't see either of them having even lasted until they got to their first target. A point I feel needs to be included.

As for if the surviving probe will last until even Saturn? Who can say?

 

[Michel Van]

Anyone have any comment on the Soviet Yupiter program?

I do Yupiters probes also in "2001: A Space-time Odyssey": two outwards and two inwards to the sun (via Jupiter swing-by) even drop a Soviet Rover on Mars in TL.
Compare to series of NASA Pioneer & Pathfinder outwards and Vikings


On Soyuz 18, it's realistic in 1980s the Soviets hat problem with Salyut 7 like Fuel leak and almost lost the station

 

[cosimas]

Firstly, I am enjoying this timeline immensely, so thank you.

I wasn't aware of any Soviet probes to the outer planets in OTL, and I can't seem to find any references to any after a brief search of the web, apart from the abandoned Tsiolkovsky program.
Were there any other missions planned before that?

 

[Athelstane]

The idea that Jupiter's Radiation Belts could play havoc with the Yupiter 1 probe is not unreasonable, given that Said Radiation Belts are some 20,000 times more powerful than that of Earth's, so anything sent into that vicinity must be specially hardened to cope.

It took Pioneer 10 and 11 to show us that Jupiter's EM field was a veritable stir fry. If this isn't shared with the Soviets - or the Soviets simply choose to disregard or disbelieve it - it is entirely believable here that they would send Yupiter off with inadequate shielding, and pay the consequences. That and, well, the Soviet record of engineering on such probes simply was more mixed than NASA's was...

In OTL, of course, Pioneer's experience was absolutely critical to Voyager planners. They slapped on a whole lot more shielding once the data came in from the Pioneers.

It's sad not to see the Voyagers in this timeline, because the opportunity was so valuable and rare, and the scientific return so staggering. The Pioneers were cheap (though impressive in their own way) little birds, thrown together by Ames because they were so inexpensive that budgetary approval wasn't hard, and little to be lost if they failed. The Pioneers had little in the way of instrumentation. But given what we know about what JPL had to go through to get the Voyagers approved, I can't say that this timeline is implausible.

 

[Athelstane]

Firstly, I am enjoying this timeline immensely, so thank you.

I wasn't aware of any Soviet probes to the outer planets in OTL, and I can't seem to find any references to any after a brief search of the web, apart from the abandoned Tsiolkovsky program.
Were there any other missions planned before that?

The Soviets never sent any probes beyond Mars.

In fact, to this day, only the United States has done so (with the caveat of notable ESA contributions to a few NASA Outer Planets probes).