I've been thinking of writing a timeline where France becomes the dominant global power in the 19th century as opposed to Britain. Britain will - for the most part - instead take France's position in world history.
A few other timelines with a similar theme have intrigued me, namely No Napoleon, FTBW, and one on here that I can't remember the name of.
What I'm wanting to explore is the possibility of ensuring an easier transition to a more democratic Second French Republic whilst retaining France's dominance in Europe. At least, for the time being.
I think keeping Napoleon in the picture is a must, but I want to know how you could contain the Bonapartes realistically with a system of checks and balances.
From my understanding of the period 1799-1801, it seems like with or without Napoleon the Directory would be overthrown. It was increasingly ineffective and political instability made it unable to last.
I've read that during Napoleon's retreat from Egypt, there was a point when he could have been intercepted by the British Navy. What would happen if this was the case? Would the British use his imprisonment to ransom the French government for a British-mandated peace? How would the French public react to Napoleon's capture? Would Lucien and Joseph Bonaparte be able to keep public opinion in favour of Napoleon? And where would Napoleon be imprisoned, in a British-occupied territory in the Mediterranean or back in London? Would it be safe to assume that France would do anything to get Napoleon back? Or would he be secretly snuck out of British captivity by his brothers in collaboration with French supporters and bribed British authorities?
Assuming that this is possible and that 18 Brumaire was inevitable by mid-1799, would it be fault to say that a brief coup and insurrection could put Emmanuel Joseph Sieyès and Jean-Baptiste Jourdan in power as President and Vice-President analogues? And assuming Napoleon is able to return to France, what measures could he undertaken to keep him and his brothers in check?
Also, the Bernadottes could be a powerful ally with Jourdan to contain Napoleon. Jean Bernadotte is credited to disagree with Bonaparte over his seizure of power and transformation of France back into a monarchy. Jourdan was an ardent supporter of republicanism.
Also, what could an aborted insurrection attempt by either Bonaparte brothers affect in terms of the French governments suspicions of Napoleon? Could that ensure not making Napoleon consul?
What would a Sieyès-Jourdan republic look like? Would it be a Consulate or more closely resemble the following French republics?
If this is a way to contain Napoleon, could a Confederation of the Rhine become a German Confederation following a French victory over Prussia? And a French victory in Italy forms an Italian League? I imagine France would keep Malta, Dodecanese, and Septinsular as bases. Would France be willing to ally with the US and support an independent Canadian republic to distract Britain enough to pursue propping up client republics in Eastern Europe (I.e. Greece, Serbia, Poland)
I imagine France could maintain such a system until 1845-50, when ATL's European Spring hits. A definite struggle between liberalism and conservatism would ensue, motivated by politics of the continent. Germany and Italy could unite to oppose the French system, initially a reactionary movement to bring absolutism back to Europe but forced by liberal revolutionaries to a constitutionalist (if not in name only) stance following unification. Germany would ally with Italy, later joined by Austria as French control of Eastern Europe collapses. By this point I could see a devastated Ottoman Empire lose territory to Serbia and Greece while Bulgaria, Bosnia, and Albania become independent.
I could imagine Germany and Italy would try to restore the Bourbons, but a revolution deposes them soon after among proto-socialist uprisings.
France may lose the alliance to the US, but may find one in an alarmed Britain. Especially if Germany has ambitions for the channel. I imagine France's new Mediterranean territory would be lost not to mention the Rhine and Alsace-Lorraine. Maybe Luxembourg.
France would temporarily be forced out of great power status, but that could serve as impetus for more agressive colonization to compensate. Not to mention diplomatic maneuvering and arms races.
France would warm up to Russia as well. Italy and the Ottomans would be wild cards when a war begins. A WWI analogue ensues, though much different. This could be where history really diverges more so than being a kinda-sorta different world but still recognizable to OTL.
Whatcha think? Could there be other ways to contain Napoleon but keep him alive, resulting in roughly what I've described? Or am I just a) misinformed b) totally out to lunch with this whole alt history thing? I'm relatively new at this despite lurking for years.