Napoleonic Wars without Invasion of Russia

As the title says what would the world look like had Napoleon not invaded Russia? Say the Louisiana purchase never happened so he doesn't have the funds.
Could a "smaller" Napoleonic France survive? Or would the rest of Europe still ally itself and stomp France out? How would French Russian relations develop?
 
As the title says what would the world look like had Napoleon not invaded Russia? Say the Louisiana purchase never happened so he doesn't have the funds.
Could a "smaller" Napoleonic France survive? Or would the rest of Europe still ally itself and stomp France out? How would French Russian relations develop?

Once Russia and France don't have any mutual interests to ally themselves over, they're really bound to become rivals. And if Russia leaves the Continental system Napoleon has to take some sort of decisive action or risk economic collapse and losing his German clients. So I really think that no Louisiana Purchase just means a smaller/worse equipped attack, or more loot taken from Germany and Italy.

Regardless, if peace with Russia was somehow achieved, there's still the problem of Brittan offering huge subsidies to anyone willing to for ma new coalition, and of course the Spanish Ulcer.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
If there's no Franco-Russian War during the Napoleonic Wars (which implies that Russia abides by the Treaties of Tilsit and so does not leave the Continental System), then Napoleon will probably emerge as the dominant power in the majority of Continental Europe.

Russia, however, will still be a force to bear in mind. It's vast, increasingly populated realm that has never been beaten by Napoleon and has its own territorial ambitions in Europe.

I say that once the British sue for peace (or however Napoleon neutralizes them), France and Russia go about carving up the Ottoman Empire. After that's done, then things get frosty.

You'll see at the very least a two-way cold war in Europe, with Britain either being the third power or (depending how badly they're humbled by Napoleon) throw in their lot with Russia to create a sort of anti-French entente.

Chances are that, once Napo kicks the bucket, things in Europe will start getting dicey. Russia's going to start grumbling about the Duchy of Warsaw, Britain's going to grow more adventuresome, French-occupied Tuscany might kick up a fuss, Prussia might start quietly pursuing an agenda aimed at usurping the Confederation of the Rhine as the German hegemon. Expect the Iberian ulcer to start bleeding again, too.

The only place that might not immediately try to seize upon France's percieved weakness under Napoleon II (who history tells us was a sickly, thoroughly unimpressive chap) is Austria, and that's purely due to dynastic ties with the Bonopartes. But again, expect that to dissolve quickly once Austria spies a chance to get back Dalmatia and reassert its powrer in Italy.

I don't know, just some ideas. Bear in mind, though, that this situation probably would only occur if Russia is left as a force in Europe. If Napoleon manages to defeat Russia, then you'll probably see a much stonger, much more lasting French dominance over Europe.
 
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Bigger chunk of the Balkans is going to Russia, after all didnt they only end the war with the Ottoman Empire because Napoleon was about to invade?

Well yay Serb freedom.
 
Bigger chunk of the Balkans is going to Russia, after all didnt they only end the war with the Ottoman Empire because Napoleon was about to invade?

Well yay Serb freedom.

Russia will probably take Wallachia and Moldavia if at all possible in this hypothetical, and include Serb autonomy in the treaty. It's not going to be insta-Serbia, though. France (and Austria) are right there. And in some ways an autonomous state that could be used to hold the Ottomans hostage through Russia' capaicty to protect its autonomy was more valuable to Petersburg than a fully independent state which could potentially do something silly like ally with someone else. Note how Britain moved Greece to full independence against Russian reluctance.
 
Once Russia and France don't have any mutual interests to ally themselves over, they're really bound to become rivals. And if Russia leaves the Continental system Napoleon has to take some sort of decisive action or risk economic collapse and losing his German clients.

Exactly. The split really started in 1810, and in 1809 we'd seen French-Russian common interests in Europe rapidly dwindling. Russia gained Finland and could thus focus her attention on the Ottomans, so her other fronts were being wound up. The Polish question was brought back to the fore, Spain started ulcering, and the Austrians showed that a reformed army could, tactically, fight the French on their own terms.

Given all that, there was a growing sentiment among the literary classes of Russia against the CoSys (which forced a tightening of belts: sugar prices were through the roof; it was Russia that benefitted the more from re-opening British trade) and the DoW.

So what could Napoleon do? It was a diplomatic conundrum. Not stopping the Russians could undermine his commercial control of Germany and Europe; what could he offer to conciliate without losing face?

Napoleon's natural response to difficult choices was to raise an army and fight a battle, so off he went into Russia with little in the way of a plan.

So I really think that no Louisiana Purchase just means a smaller/worse equipped attack, or more loot taken from Germany and Italy.

Yeah; it will also surely butterfly before 1812.

Regardless, if peace with Russia was somehow achieved, there's still the problem of Brittan offering huge subsidies to anyone willing to for ma new coalition, and of course the Spanish Ulcer.

I think, given no other distractions, France can at least keep Spain from getting any worse; but I do predict Anglo-Russian alignment.
 
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