Also, I don't see why Brazil would abandon the long-running alliance with Britain? Britain is their centuries old ally, a source of needed investment (indeed, the ONLY non-Napoleonic source if France wins) and a fellow anti-French power.

fasquardon

The main OTL bone of contention AIUI was the British flooding Brazil with manufactured goods. Still, it seems optimistic to think London would just accept the Brazilians throwing up tariffs. And their bargaining position would be kind of weak under these circumstances, since they’d likely need some protection, but still don’t offer the British all that much in return.
 
The main OTL bone of contention AIUI was the British flooding Brazil with manufactured goods. Still, it seems optimistic to think London would just accept the Brazilians throwing up tariffs. And their bargaining position would be kind of weak under these circumstances, since they’d likely need some protection, but still don’t offer the British all that much in return.

Britain was alright with trade partners throwing up tariffs if they figured it was in their overall interest - for example in the case of the Ottoman Empire where the Ottomans owed plenty of money to British banks and avoiding an Ottoman collapse was in British geo-strategic interests.

It also depended on how high the tariffs were.

And remember, this Brazil also has the Portuguese navy and army. Yes, they're a pretty small power in European terms, but they are assuredly one of the strongest powers left that isn't under French domination.

fasquardon
 
Britain was alright with trade partners throwing up tariffs if they figured it was in their overall interest - for example in the case of the Ottoman Empire where the Ottomans owed plenty of money to British banks and avoiding an Ottoman collapse was in British geo-strategic interests.

It also depended on how high the tariffs were.

And remember, this Brazil also has the Portuguese navy and army. Yes, they're a pretty small power in European terms, but they are assuredly one of the strongest powers left that isn't under French domination.

fasquardon

How much of that army escaped to Brazil IOTL? Besides, without any plans to take the fight back to continental Europe, what good are those troops anyways?
 
How much of that army escaped to Brazil IOTL? Besides, without any plans to take the fight back to continental Europe, what good are those troops anyways?
With the spanish empire still in chaos, perhaps against Bolivia and Argentina, if they aren't just independent by then
 
Brazil will likely be better off than OTL Brazil, and this ATL Brazil will be a regional power (which in this case means they keep French Guiana, which they've captured with British help, thus being neighbors to Dutch Guyana, which might be merged with British Guyana, Paraguay and Argentina. The rest are geographically isolated from Brazil. So the bar of regional power is set pretty low), but lets not paint them as anything resembling a world power any time soon.
 
Brazil will likely be better off than OTL Brazil, and this ATL Brazil will be a regional power (which in this case means they keep French Guiana, which they've captured with British help, thus being neighbors to Dutch Guyana, which might be merged with British Guyana, Paraguay and Argentina. The rest are geographically isolated from Brazil. So the bar of regional power is set pretty low), but lets not paint them as anything resembling a world power any time soon.
I think a big thing is that the first Brazilian republic was basically a military dictatorship funded by the slaver aristocrats, kinda like the csa. Preventing that would keep the very liberal monarchy that was industializing decently well. And really I do think they could be a world power, as they can industrialize pretty well and are fairly isolated from the rest of the world, so they're able to chill and take in immigrants from the Latin world and sell to everyone, kinda like the us otl. Obviously itll be harder than the us, but it would be easier and less of an asspull than some countries otl who modernized: russia and japan being the biggest imo.
 
How much of that army escaped to Brazil IOTL? Besides, without any plans to take the fight back to continental Europe, what good are those troops anyways?

So far as I am aware, not much at all. But there was a big fat lack of professional troops in the Americas, so the Royal bodyguards alone put Brazil head and shoulders above everyone besides Britain.

fasquardon
 
Not sure if wank, but I have to agree.

They will have the treasure, the King and Royal Court, the Capital, the elites, the other colonies, the Fleet, the Portuguese Army, etc.

There will be no independence war.

Yeah, I would say this Brazil is 10-20 years ahead from OTL.

Important Fact: The Braganças had plans to carve out an american empire in South America. I suspect we would see Brazil retain Cisplatina and French Guyana. I also suspect we would see bits bitten off from other countries. The unstable Argentina is the ideal target. Perhaps an alternate Chiquitos affair that results in Bolivia pretty much chickening out and letting Chiquito go free because they realize Brazil is going to beat them hard.

I suspect there will still be a Cabanagem, because the real problem is the local portuguese elite that kept itself in power after independence. But, there will be no Palhaço Brig incident, and many of the more liberal reformer figures will not be arrested.
 
I suspect we would see Brazil retain Cisplatina and French Guyana.
I believe Brazil was forced to cough up French Guiana at the congress of Vienna. The crown wanted to keep it, but what Portugal/Brazil (or any of the world's minor powers) wanted was not much of a consideration in Vienna. France, the defeated foe, got a seat at the big boy table, though.

I agree about cisplatina.
 
I believe Brazil was forced to cough up French Guiana at the congress of Vienna. The crown wanted to keep it, but what Portugal/Brazil (or any of the world's minor powers) wanted was not much of a consideration in Vienna. France, the defeated foe, got a seat at the big boy table, though.

I agree about cisplatina.


I would't call Portugal "minor", as it was even then still one of the players of Europe, but yeah.

Also, nobody wanted to take much of a bite into France, in order not to upset the European balance of power. Nobody wanted Austria or Russia to take over Europe or something.
 
Top