Napoleon for reasons goes back into Spain in 1812 instead of an invasion into Russia. Maybe his forces there suffered worse defeats in 1811, forcing him to intervene. Or perhaps Russia on the surface looks like it is still abiding by the Continental System. He beats the Anglo-Portuguese army off the Peninsula, eventually breaching the Lines of Torres Vedras. But they pull out most of their forces while he batters through the lines. The siege of Cádiz is also eventually successful, leaving the allies without a foothold bar Gibraltar. Without a conventional army on the Peninsula, the French forces can disperse their forces more effectively to fight the guerrilla war. But it remains a constant drain.
He returns to the east to fend off Russia who is ready for another go, but neither side is able to decisively defeat the other. Eventually, they sue for peace, with Russia out of the Continental System (either in word or just in terms of enforcement) but the Duchy of Warsaw surviving as an Eastern Bulkward for Napoleon. Perhaps enlargened somewhat. Napoleon is the master of Western and Central Europe, but unable to defeat either Britain or Russia. And both sides are sick of the fighting and can't see a way to beat the other, so a stalemate peace ensures.
So what happens to Latin America? They were ruled during the war by Juntas, and continue to govern themselves. Napoleon holds complete domination over the Continental Homeland, but the British Navy will block any attempts by him or a puppet of his to assert control over the Spanish colonies. Ferdinand VII is of course still held by Napoleon.
They are essentially handed independence without having to fend off either Spain or France, being under Britain's protection. Which countries form from this? Could Latin America be successful without the years of attempted reconquest and back and forth fighting? Who takes the Philippines?
I assume that Britain would be highly interested in forcing them all into its sphere, particularly since it has its access to Continental trade hampered.