I do not think it's a question of either a defeating France or an absolutely triumphant France. Events could have been such that history outside Europe might have taken much the same course they did IOTL (Britain supreme, with other European powers following in their wake), but replace European politics with France (with its borders on the Rhine) being the Continental superpower as opposed to Germany.
That's sort of what I had in mind, although I think a Bonapartist France would be more of an imperial competitor with Britain for two reasons 1) C'mon, it's Napoleon and 2) it has the advantage of being a rising, unified power decades ahead of the United States and Germany in OTL. British dominance in India is probably a given, but the rest of the world is definitely going to end up with a different colonial map.
The trick is, as noted by other posters, how to get Napoleon to stay content with what he has. He has to stay alive at least long enough to have *Napoleon II in order to establish a dynasty. How about this - in OTL, Josephine Bonaparte was infertile and thus Napoleon divorced the poor woman in 1810. Let's say that the divorce happens earlier, say 1804 (the all-knowing Wikipedia points me to the Elisabeth de Vaudey incident). In TTL's 1807, Napoleon is a bachelor again. To form a dynastic bond between the two nations, and to crown the Treaty of Tilsit, it's agreed that Napoleon I, Emperor of France will marry her Imperial Highness, Grand Duchess Anna Pavlovna of Russia. Anna is not overly thrilled at the prospect, but she does consent. A year later, *Napoleon II is born. (In OTL Anna and her actual husband, the future King of the Netherlands, had five kids, so it's likely there'll be another generation of younger Bonapartes to marry off to various European royals ITTL)
While not a great family man by any means, Napoleon I does grudgingly concede he has to preserve some kind of Empire for his young son and heir. This tempers his aggression and ambition, and by 1812, the Napoleonic Wars peter to a halt as all the great powers of Europe recognize France's 1807 borders. Portugal is restored to a single country under the House of Braganza. Britain is, to put it mildly, not thrilled that France controls the Belgian coast, but they do retain mastery of the seas and happily note that the 'puppet' kingdom of Holland is not entirely docile. (Possibly ASBish in British acceptance of this state of affairs, but eh)
In 1810 of TTL, the states and rulers of Europe are
United Kingdom - King George III, Prime Minister George Canning
Prussia - King Friedrich Wilhelm III
Austria - Emperor Franz I
Russia - Czar Alexander I
Ottoman Empire - Sultan Selim III (his overthrow and murder is butterflied away)
Spain - Ferdinand VII (not replaced by Joseph Bonaparte owing to Napoleon's new, more moderate course)
Portugal - Queen Regent Maria I
Confederation of the Rhine - Prince-Primate Karl Theodor
Duchy of Warsaw - Duke Frederick Augustus I
Papal States - Pope Pius VII
Italy - King Eugenio I (Eugène de Beauharnais, formerly viceroy and crowned king in 1809)
Etruria - King Ludovico II (Charles Louise of Bourbon-Parma)
Naples - King Giuseppe I (Joseph Bonaparte)
Swiss Confederation
Sweden (and Finland) - King Gustav IV Adolf (his overthrow in the aftermath of a Russian invasion is likewise butterflied away, as is the invasion itself)
Denmark (and Norway and Iceland) - King Frederick VI (since Denmark is on the winning side in TTL, it does not lose Norway to Sweden)
Sardinia - King Vittorio Emanuele I
Holland - King Lodewijk I (Louis Bonaparte)
Where do things go from here?