Napoleonic France survives into the 20th century?

1) The Treaties of Tilsit are signed as in OTL
2) POD: All signatory powers remain faithful to the treaties.
3) ???
4) Profit!

Goofing aside, let's say that somehow the First Empire manages to survive through the entire 19th century. It - and the rest of Europe - industrializes more or less along the same time frame as in OTL. What effect does a Bonapartist France play in the decades to come? What happens when Napoleon I dies - constitutional monarchy, republican revolution, Bourbon restoration, foreign invasion? Who takes advantage of the weakness of the Ottoman Empire? What shape does the partition of Africa take? What does this world look like in 2009? What do you, the viewers at home, think?
 
I'm not sure. To my mind there are only two ultimate conclusions to the Napoleonic Wars: Napoleonic France loses and Bonaparte is dethroned, or he gets it right and becomes dominant over the world. So long as his power can be challenged the UK would continue to oppose him until they win or they no longer can oppose him. On the death of Napoleon, even if he survives longer and his son inherits, you'd have to say that unless Napoleonic France is predominant in the world, that his successor could never hope to match his success and would rule over the collapse of the French Empire.
 
well you could have Napoleon abdicate like he did before the 100 days in favor of his son.. then instead of an angry Russia demanding that a Bonapart never sit on a throne of France, you could have Napoleon II rule a semi-powerful France that is almost equal to Britain in every regard except the navy and depending upon how young Napoleon reacts during the revolutions of the 1830's and 1848's, you could have a Napoleonic France into 20th century
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I do not think it's a question of either a defeating France or an absolutely triumphant France. Events could have been such that history outside Europe might have taken much the same course they did IOTL (Britain supreme, with other European powers following in their wake), but replace European politics with France (with its borders on the Rhine) being the Continental superpower as opposed to Germany.
 
I once had a map and TL accompanying it whereby victorious Austria keeps Napoleon II on the French Throne as a semi-puppet with his mother (the Austrian Kaiser's daughter) as regent. The snubbed and displaced French Bourbons are cast to the wind and settle in either Spain or the Two Sicilies.
I suppose its possible that such a tempered Empire might survive into the 20th century.
 
I do not think it's a question of either a defeating France or an absolutely triumphant France. Events could have been such that history outside Europe might have taken much the same course they did IOTL (Britain supreme, with other European powers following in their wake), but replace European politics with France (with its borders on the Rhine) being the Continental superpower as opposed to Germany.

That's sort of what I had in mind, although I think a Bonapartist France would be more of an imperial competitor with Britain for two reasons 1) C'mon, it's Napoleon and 2) it has the advantage of being a rising, unified power decades ahead of the United States and Germany in OTL. British dominance in India is probably a given, but the rest of the world is definitely going to end up with a different colonial map.

The trick is, as noted by other posters, how to get Napoleon to stay content with what he has. He has to stay alive at least long enough to have *Napoleon II in order to establish a dynasty. How about this - in OTL, Josephine Bonaparte was infertile and thus Napoleon divorced the poor woman in 1810. Let's say that the divorce happens earlier, say 1804 (the all-knowing Wikipedia points me to the Elisabeth de Vaudey incident). In TTL's 1807, Napoleon is a bachelor again. To form a dynastic bond between the two nations, and to crown the Treaty of Tilsit, it's agreed that Napoleon I, Emperor of France will marry her Imperial Highness, Grand Duchess Anna Pavlovna of Russia. Anna is not overly thrilled at the prospect, but she does consent. A year later, *Napoleon II is born. (In OTL Anna and her actual husband, the future King of the Netherlands, had five kids, so it's likely there'll be another generation of younger Bonapartes to marry off to various European royals ITTL)

While not a great family man by any means, Napoleon I does grudgingly concede he has to preserve some kind of Empire for his young son and heir. This tempers his aggression and ambition, and by 1812, the Napoleonic Wars peter to a halt as all the great powers of Europe recognize France's 1807 borders. Portugal is restored to a single country under the House of Braganza. Britain is, to put it mildly, not thrilled that France controls the Belgian coast, but they do retain mastery of the seas and happily note that the 'puppet' kingdom of Holland is not entirely docile. (Possibly ASBish in British acceptance of this state of affairs, but eh)

In 1810 of TTL, the states and rulers of Europe are

United Kingdom - King George III, Prime Minister George Canning
Prussia - King Friedrich Wilhelm III
Austria - Emperor Franz I
Russia - Czar Alexander I
Ottoman Empire - Sultan Selim III (his overthrow and murder is butterflied away)
Spain - Ferdinand VII (not replaced by Joseph Bonaparte owing to Napoleon's new, more moderate course)
Portugal - Queen Regent Maria I
Confederation of the Rhine - Prince-Primate Karl Theodor
Duchy of Warsaw - Duke Frederick Augustus I
Papal States - Pope Pius VII
Italy - King Eugenio I (Eugène de Beauharnais, formerly viceroy and crowned king in 1809)
Etruria - King Ludovico II (Charles Louise of Bourbon-Parma)
Naples - King Giuseppe I (Joseph Bonaparte)
Swiss Confederation
Sweden (and Finland) - King Gustav IV Adolf (his overthrow in the aftermath of a Russian invasion is likewise butterflied away, as is the invasion itself)
Denmark (and Norway and Iceland) - King Frederick VI (since Denmark is on the winning side in TTL, it does not lose Norway to Sweden)
Sardinia - King Vittorio Emanuele I
Holland - King Lodewijk I (Louis Bonaparte)

Where do things go from here?
 
It might mean no unified Germany or Italy.

Thinking of Italy in the long term, though, I think it might be possible for Napoleon or his heirs to take advantage of Italian sentiment (his "heir" did do OTL, in fact). In 1815, Murat had tried to surf on a wave of Italian nationalism then too embryonic to save him. This was a desperate measure, obviously, but is shows the feeling was there. napoleon had already created an Italian state under the iron crown. In the long term adding the other two-thirds of Italy to it and harnessing Italian nationalism would certainly seem more sensible.
 
There would inevitably be another war again. France would probably try and threaten the route to India again which means another war with the Ottomans. Britain would obviously intervene. I could see Russia and France having tense relations because of Poland and so another war would probably break out between them.

I could also see nationalism rise up and see many revolts in Germany, Holland and Italy which no other monarchy in Europe would be prepared to stop.
 
It might mean no unified Germany or Italy.

A victorious lasting Napoleonic First Empire would mean the continuation of the Confederation of the Rhine, with the Westphalian kingdom, as well as the Italian Kingdom as an appendage of France. Murat's heirs would continue to rule in Naples

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Couple of points - Firstly the POD has to be in Napoleons personality - he was convinced that his throne rested solely on military glory, and that any attempt to go without would bring about its loss. If he can restrain himself from provoking Russia especially, but also Spain, then the treaty of Tilsit is one point where the wars could have ended - with defeat for Britain and the return of many of the colonies she had captured, probably in return for the removal of the Continental system. (for a better description of all the ponts where a moderation in French behaviour would have ended the wars, Esdaile is very good)

Secondly, Prussia would not become the economic / industrial powerhouse of germany - she only gained the areas enabling this in the Congress of Vienna, followng Napoleons ultimate defeat
 
That's sort of what I had in mind, although I think a Bonapartist France would be more of an imperial competitor with Britain for two reasons 1) C'mon, it's Napoleon and 2) it has the advantage of being a rising, unified power decades ahead of the United States and Germany in OTL. British dominance in India is probably a given, but the rest of the world is definitely going to end up with a different colonial map.

The trick is, as noted by other posters, how to get Napoleon to stay content with what he has. He has to stay alive at least long enough to have *Napoleon II in order to establish a dynasty. How about this - in OTL, Josephine Bonaparte was infertile and thus Napoleon divorced the poor woman in 1810. Let's say that the divorce happens earlier, say 1804 (the all-knowing Wikipedia points me to the Elisabeth de Vaudey incident). In TTL's 1807, Napoleon is a bachelor again. To form a dynastic bond between the two nations, and to crown the Treaty of Tilsit, it's agreed that Napoleon I, Emperor of France will marry her Imperial Highness, Grand Duchess Anna Pavlovna of Russia. Anna is not overly thrilled at the prospect, but she does consent. A year later, *Napoleon II is born. (In OTL Anna and her actual husband, the future King of the Netherlands, had five kids, so it's likely there'll be another generation of younger Bonapartes to marry off to various European royals ITTL)

While not a great family man by any means, Napoleon I does grudgingly concede he has to preserve some kind of Empire for his young son and heir. This tempers his aggression and ambition, and by 1812, the Napoleonic Wars peter to a halt as all the great powers of Europe recognize France's 1807 borders. Portugal is restored to a single country under the House of Braganza. Britain is, to put it mildly, not thrilled that France controls the Belgian coast, but they do retain mastery of the seas and happily note that the 'puppet' kingdom of Holland is not entirely docile. (Possibly ASBish in British acceptance of this state of affairs, but eh)

In 1810 of TTL, the states and rulers of Europe are

United Kingdom - King George III, Prime Minister George Canning
Prussia - King Friedrich Wilhelm III
Austria - Emperor Franz I
Russia - Czar Alexander I
Ottoman Empire - Sultan Selim III (his overthrow and murder is butterflied away)
Spain - Ferdinand VII (not replaced by Joseph Bonaparte owing to Napoleon's new, more moderate course)
Portugal - Queen Regent Maria I
Confederation of the Rhine - Prince-Primate Karl Theodor
Duchy of Warsaw - Duke Frederick Augustus I
Papal States - Pope Pius VII
Italy - King Eugenio I (Eugène de Beauharnais, formerly viceroy and crowned king in 1809)
Etruria - King Ludovico II (Charles Louise of Bourbon-Parma)
Naples - King Giuseppe I (Joseph Bonaparte)
Swiss Confederation
Sweden (and Finland) - King Gustav IV Adolf (his overthrow in the aftermath of a Russian invasion is likewise butterflied away, as is the invasion itself)
Denmark (and Norway and Iceland) - King Frederick VI (since Denmark is on the winning side in TTL, it does not lose Norway to Sweden)
Sardinia - King Vittorio Emanuele I
Holland - King Lodewijk I (Louis Bonaparte)

Where do things go from here?

You forgot that the states within the Confederation of the Rhine have their own independent existence, at least as much as do Holland and Etruria. There are after all several kings, including those of Westphalia, Saxony (personal union with Warsaw), Prussia, Bavaria and Wurttemburg

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
You forgot that the states within the Confederation of the Rhine have their own independent existence, at least as much as do Holland and Etruria. There are after all several kings, including those of Westphalia, Saxony (personal union with Warsaw), Prussia, Bavaria and Wurttemburg

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

I'm not sure you said it was, but Prussia wasn't in the Rhine Confederation. You're absolutely correct though: in fact Bavaria, for instance, displayed more independence than other Napoleonic cliants by defecting.
 
Couple of points - Firstly the POD has to be in Napoleons personality - he was convinced that his throne rested solely on military glory, and that any attempt to go without would bring about its loss.

I think this has been exagerrated. He definately was hung up on prestige, and the conspiracy while he was in Russia worsened this complex considerably, but before it he hadn't been obsessed with the idea to a really dangerous degree. He hadn't wanted to fight Russia, and remained willing to make a peace to her advnatage throughout 1813.

If he can restrain himself from provoking Russia especially,

But Russia provoked him. They undermined the continetal system which they had already agreed to at Tilsit and made very cheeky remarks about Poland in 1810. This sole intention in going to war had been to get them back in the system, thus why he never proclaimed the restoration of Poland.

but also Spain,

That's a better place to look. A more tactful handling of Spain would have had a variety of effects in his favour: less of an ulcer, obviously, and also making things harder for Britain (South American trade will only be available later), and eithe raverting the Fifth Coalition or making it a quicker and more decisive success, either way making the Russians less inclined to break with France so soon.

then the treaty of Tilsit is one point where the wars could have ended - with defeat for Britain and the return of many of the colonies she had captured, probably in return for the removal of the Continental system. (for a better description of all the ponts where a moderation in French behaviour would have ended the wars, Esdaile is very good)

If Napoleon could have secured the return of French colonies and a lasting peace with Britain, he'd have won indeed. He still would have considered this a victory of sorts when he tried for it in 1813, when he was obviously not going to keep Poland and probably not Spain either.

Secondly, Prussia would not become the economic / industrial powerhouse of germany - she only gained the areas enabling this in the Congress of Vienna, followng Napoleons ultimate defeat

It would still have Silesia, but with the Saar and Ruhr it won't have the same dominance it did OTL, and will in fact be a power of the second rank at best. The Prussians were incredibly lucky in their military fortune, with their oversized army managing to score several headline-grabbing sucessed, and got a great deal more than there status in 1812 befitted as it was.
 
It might mean no unified Germany or Italy.

Germany is almost unified in the Confederation of the Rhine. It just lacks Prussia, Austria and the French Rhineland (and maybe Dutch East-Frisia, depending on the POD). I suspect that the confederation will turn into some kind of unified Germany. Prussia and Austria might remain outside of Germany, but I suspect that as soon as they got rid of the French influence, the confederation will try to capture the German speaking areas in France, possiblt with the help of Holland, who would like to regain their lost territories (Maastricht/Limburg and Zeeuws Vlaanderen) and maybe as much of Flanders they can get. Britain would no doubt love to help getting rid of as much of the Flemish coast and the industrial areas in the rhineland as possible from France.
 
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