Napoleon Wins Waterloo, What Next?

Anaxagoras

Banned
Keep in mind that the massive Austrian force was under the command of Schwarzenberg, it will move extremely slowly and cautiously, as it did in 1814. Austria was scrapping the bottom of the manpower barrel by this point and the Hapsburgs thought they could as easily end up fighting the Russians and the French. The Austrians will be extremely reluctant to offer battle if there is a chance they may suffer significant losses.

Also, recall that in 1814 there were numerous occasions of small French forces putting much larger Allied armies to flight. In the Six Days Campaign in February, Napoleon smashed a Prussian army of 70,000 with a force only half its size.

So, the argument that Napoleon winning at Waterloo would make no difference because of the numerical advantage of the other Allied armies is, to me, quite premature. The fact that the Allies were even more divided and supiscious of each other in 1815 than they had been in 1814 would also work to Napoleon's advantage.
 

Redbeard

Banned
Keep in mind that the massive Austrian force was under the command of Schwarzenberg, it will move extremely slowly and cautiously, as it did in 1814. Austria was scrapping the bottom of the manpower barrel by this point and the Hapsburgs thought they could as easily end up fighting the Russians and the French. The Austrians will be extremely reluctant to offer battle if there is a chance they may suffer significant losses.

Also, recall that in 1814 there were numerous occasions of small French forces putting much larger Allied armies to flight. In the Six Days Campaign in February, Napoleon smashed a Prussian army of 70,000 with a force only half its size.

So, the argument that Napoleon winning at Waterloo would make no difference because of the numerical advantage of the other Allied armies is, to me, quite premature. The fact that the Allies were even more divided and supiscious of each other in 1815 than they had been in 1814 would also work to Napoleon's advantage.

Schwarzenberg moving overly slow or cautiously is a myth that is hard to find in reality when studying operations. He, in accordance with campaign plans and strategy, never let himself catch out on a limp, but kept up a continiously gowing pressure on the French. As shown at Leipzig he and the Austrians had no problems in engaging in strength and succesfully playing the anvil of the allied. The Prussians under Blücher OTOH caused much contemporrary concern, as it was feared that the half-crazy Blücher (Patton of the Napoleonic wars) would not have the restraint to stay out of trouble. That was later used by Prussian historians/propgandists (who formed the basis for British historians on the continental campaigns) to picture the Prussians as the carriers of the true (aggressive) German spirit, and the Austrians as half-hearted and half-French. In reality the allies under Schwarzenberg took the only sensible approach and the Prussians at times were a liability to the allied cause.

Anyway, if you call the Prussians "smashed" in the battles in Februrary 1814 we will need a new word for "smashed". The Prussians surely suffered some tactical defeats, but withdrew intact, and could a few days after press back the troops under Mortier and Marmont left to deal with them.

So the question is not whether Napoleon will win tactical victories again, I think he will, but of realising, that he by 1815 had no realistic options to win decisive military or political victories.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
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