IMO,
Napoleon has a chance to keep his throne after Waterloo. It is not the most probable outcome but it is plausible. However, it depends on 2 prequesites.
1) That the Prussian army which fought at Waterloo OTL is completely crushed immediately afterward (as in removed from the board entirely, killed, captured or disbanded beyond any hope of rebuild). If that happens, the threat of Prussia is removed. Yes, prussia had other troops, but these were 2nd rate and not in theater. If Blutcher's army (preferebaly with Blutsher himself and Geisenau) is out of the picture, France is safe from attack on that side (which does not mean Napoleon can invade prussia just that there will be no prussian attack soon)
2) that the defeat at waterloo causes a change in Governmant in the UK and that the new government is fed up with paying pensions for the Bourbons for a quarter of a century and subsidising most of Europe for nearly the same time so much that it would be willing to listen to a peace proposal. If that happens (which is totally out of Napoleon's hands) and napoleon listen to Talleyrand (who will come to him after a victory at waterloo), which is more likely in 1815 than in 1807 or 1812, then a modus vivendi can be found between France and UK.
If the above occurs then Napoleon still has to face 2 foe with armies in the field, Austria and Russia, and cannot afford any major loss, as he has what is basically the last army France can field in that generation (or at least decade). However, he has still has a chance to deal with his foe in separation.
The Russia army is moving very slowly because of command problems. The Russian officer corp, as a whole, hated being under the orders of a foreign general (barclay de Tolly was considered such) and did everything to make him look bad. In OTL, they stopped dragging their feet after Waterloo, so as to be in for the kill and not to be accused of cowardice, but will keep doing so in case of a French Victory at Waterloo.
Which allows Napoleon the chance to confront the Austrian army on its own and a possibility to defeat it in detail. Now, just like France Austria's army was its last army. If that Army is lost, then there is not enough troops to confront NApoleon and ensure that there is no nationalist revolts in every little nationality which make up A-H empire. So fighting Napoleon is an all or nothing gamble. If the army is destroyed, so is the Empire. Napoleon is willing to risk this (once again) and does not really have a choice but A-H can easily negociate from a position of strength and have a trump card in negociation as they hold Napoleon's wife and most importantly his son and heir. SO I think A-H will make peace with Napoleon.
That leaves Russia alone in the field. Without allies and with all its territorial goals already achieved, Russia has no reason to send and army to france. It can get more from Talleyrand than from the Congress of Vienna OTL, so Russia may well opt for peace also.
In summary, there is a chance provided the 2 hypotheses above, but even that is not a certainty, or even the most probable, given the hatred for Napoleon in some rulers.