Napoleon wins at Waterloo

Susano

Banned
However, if a strong barrier against France is needed, then the Netherlands are really an awful choice to give the Southern Netherlands to! IOTL, they were chosen because the UK has always been so pricky about who controls the Channel coast, and the Netherlands seeemed least threatening. Needless to say, powers like Prussia (as per the 1814 borders) would have a much greater barrier function against France!
 
However, if a strong barrier against France is needed, then the Netherlands are really an awful choice to give the Southern Netherlands to! IOTL, they were chosen because the UK has always been so pricky about who controls the Channel coast, and the Netherlands seeemed least threatening. Needless to say, powers like Prussia (as per the 1814 borders) would have a much greater barrier function against France!

The problem with Prussia is that it is one of the big powers and the other big powers didn't want the other big powers getting any bigger. Also i don't think Prussia cared enough about Belgium as they did not make any attempt to gain it (something they did with Luxembourg, which is the reason it became part of the German Confederation instead of becoming part of the Netherlands). And if Napoleon wins at Waterloo, I assume that means that Prussia has been beaten together with the British, so they aren't in a position to make demands. Lastly the Vienna congress ended before Waterloo, so I really doubt that borderchanges that big would be made. I think it is likely that Prussia gains part of northern France for its Rhineland province.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Why? The reason a united Netherlands (and a stronger Sardinia-Piedmont) was created, was as a counter balance to France. If France wins at waterloo and is defeated later, it is clear that a strong counterbalance against France is needed. I think that a stronger Netherands (including French Flanders and Hainaut) is more likely than a weakened Netherlands. Certainly considering that Austria isn't interested in the southern Netherlands. Also weren't most border changes already decided before Waterloo? In that case small border changes at the edge of France (French Flanders to the Netherlands, Corsica to Sardinia, Elzass to Baden, maybe Switserland or Spain gets something) are more likely to happen than another round of redrawing borders in the rest of Europe.

However, if a strong barrier against France is needed, then the Netherlands are really an awful choice to give the Southern Netherlands to! IOTL, they were chosen because the UK has always been so pricky about who controls the Channel coast, and the Netherlands seeemed least threatening. Needless to say, powers like Prussia (as per the 1814 borders) would have a much greater barrier function against France!

Yes and it mostly happen at the insistents of UK, which wanted to avoid a too strong power in the Southen Netherland, there's also that aspect that a Belgium alone was almost as strong as the United Netherland, Netherland didn't give much to the union except a strong fleet which help little against the French. So it would be better to give it to Prussia, through if a Wittelbach state which also included Pfalz and Trier would also be a better choice.
 

Susano

Banned
The problem with Prussia is that it is one of the big powers and the other big powers didn't want the other big powers getting any bigger. Also i don't think Prussia cared enough about Belgium as they did not make any attempt to gain it (something they did with Luxembourg, which is the reason it became part of the German Confederation instead of becoming part of the Netherlands). And if Napoleon wins at Waterloo, I assume that means that Prussia has been beaten together with the British, so they aren't in a position to make demands. Lastly the Vienna congress ended before Waterloo, so I really doubt that borderchanges that big would be made. I think it is likely that Prussia gains part of northern France for its Rhineland province.

If Russia controls the post-Napoleonic world, then Prussia needs to be compensated for not regaining Posen ;) So the Russians would have an interest in western territories becoming Prussian, too. So what other Great Powers are they? As said, the UK will bitch anyways, and Austria will concentrate on keeping Saxony alive.
 

Susano

Banned
Yes and it mostly happen at the insistents of UK, which wanted to avoid a too strong power in the Southen Netherland, there's also that aspect that a Belgium alone was almost as strong as the United Netherland, Netherland didn't give much to the union except a strong fleet which help little against the French. So it would be better to give it to Prussia, through if a Wittelbach state which also included Pfalz and Trier would also be a better choice.

Thats too much, though. While the OTL example (of the SNL simply being gifted to the NL) might show otherwise, I still think Bavaria wouldnt simply so receive the SNL. And I cant really think of any territory theyd be willing to lose in order to gain the SNL. (Upper and Lower Bavaria and Upper Palatinate are core territories, and Franconia is simply so much nearer to the political centre at Munich...)
 
If Russia controls the post-Napoleonic world, then Prussia needs to be compensated for not regaining Posen ;) So the Russians would have an interest in western territories becoming Prussian, too. So what other Great Powers are they? As said, the UK will bitch anyways, and Austria will concentrate on keeping Saxony alive.
I really doubt a victorious Napoleon at Waterloo means a renegotiation of all the borders in Europe. These borders were already decided at that point. If Russia wanted Posen it most likely means war instead of a Prussian Belgium. Remember that Prussia and the Netherlands and most certainly the kings of Prussia and the Netherlands were relatively close allies.
 

Susano

Banned
I really doubt a victorious Napoleon at Waterloo means a renegotiation of all the borders in Europe. These borders were already decided at that point. If Russia wanted Posen it most likely means war instead of a Prussian Belgium. Remember that Prussia and the Netherlands and most certainly the kings of Prussia and the Netherlands were relatively close allies.

Err, per the 1814 borders, Posen was already Russian. And Saxony was Russian occupied.
 

Susano

Banned
yes, but we are talking about the battle of Waterloo which was in 1815.

Uh, yeah, exactly. My point was Prussian Belgium and Russian Posen would NOT be a renegotiation of borders, as those already existed! It was IOTL thatr the borders were renegotiated.
 
The question really is


-1- Does France win, then get thumped by the Russian-led armies a few weeks later ?

or

-2- Does France win and this revives the entire war, making Vienna obselete, and leading to several more years of campaigning for everyone ?

And if -2- obviously

-a- France eventually agrees an Amiens-type peace that this time holds
or
-b- France eventually gets beaten

Of course, -a- could include social revolution in England where things were getting pretty near the bone

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Uh, yeah, exactly. My point was Prussian Belgium and Russian Posen would NOT be a renegotiation of borders, as those already existed! It was IOTL thatr the borders were renegotiated.
Not true, Belgium was never Prussian, it was Prussian occupied, which is not the same.The thing is that before the battle of Waterloo the borders were redrawn and everybody agreed. The Dutch army in Waterloo consisted of Dutch and Belgian troops because at that time it was already decided that the Netherlands got Belgium. At the batte of Waterloo Belgium belonged to the Netherlands, not Prussia, not Austria, not France, no Belgium was part of the Netherlands (and it had been for a while, the faith of the Netherlands was decided within a day, it was not something many countries disagreed upon). At the time of the battle of Waterloo the same was true about Posen. It might have been occupied by the Russians for awhile, but it was at that point Prussian. All countries had agreed on it, including Russia. So if Russia wanted it back, while everybody agreed that it was Prussian means war as I really doubt Prussia would decide to trade it away in a new round of negotiations. The Prussians were happy with the result of the Vienna congress, so they won't accept any Russian claims.
 
My point was meant to be that if Waterloo is but a hiccough and had the principle outcome of bashing and humiliating the British and Prussians, but the Russian-led armies win soon after, then the basic agreements of Vienna are going to be in place, but the relative power of Britain and Prussia in the final negotiations is going to be less and, for example, more of Saxony could remain with Saxony

But if the victory leads to full-scale campaigning criss-crossing Europe, then Vienna becomes redundant, and then what happens long-term is far more up for grabs

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Susano

Banned
Itd oesnt matter what already was agreed on in the Vienna negotiations - nothing had been made official. And before teh 100 days it even looked like th enegotiations would come to no end at all. Thus while everybody might have noded to the Netherlands gaining the SNL, they were not yet Dutch.

/E: This in response to pompejus, not GW of course!
 
Itd oesnt matter what already was agreed on in the Vienna negotiations - nothing had been made official. And before teh 100 days it even looked like th enegotiations would come to no end at all. Thus while everybody might have noded to the Netherlands gaining the SNL, they were not yet Dutch.

Sorry no, you're idea of a German Belgium doesn't work this way.
 
What a gem of an argument! :rolleyes:
I used arguments, you didn't accept them. I will repeat it once more. Prussia is not going to accept losing Posen to Russia, just because Russia defeated Napoleon and it is not just going to get Belgium from the Netherlands as compensation.
 
Preußisch-Niederlande

I would argue that the Southern Netherlands would simply be too big an expansion for Prussia. Prussia had been reduced to very much its core in 1806. Their expansion towards the French border gave them chunks of very un-Prussian lands they could hardly stomach for decades (silly Catholic Rhinelanders and stubborn Westphalians who only talk to horses). Today's Belgium would simply have been overstretch.

I also assume that Bavaria wouldn't have been rewarded with elevation to a medium European power by expansion to the North Sea for clinging relatively long to Napoleon...
 

Susano

Banned
I used arguments, you didn't accept them. I will repeat it once more. Prussia is not going to accept losing Posen to Russia, just because Russia defeated Napoleon and it is not just going to get Belgium from the Netherlands as compensation.

As it is, Posen merely was a consolation price anyways, as Prussia had hoped for Saxony! As it is, at least the SNL have a developed proto-industrial economy like Saxony, too, whereas Posen, err, didnt. I see no reason why Prussia should value Posen over the SNL, as said IOTL they simply accepted it as a compnesation for not getting Saxony, not because the territory had any value!
 

Thande

Donor
A Prussian Flanders (sorry, SNL just makes me think of that American comedy show ;) ) strikes me as being worth pursuing just because it would create such an interesting dynamic for the 19th century to come, even though Pompejus does make good points against it.
 
A Prussian Flanders (sorry, SNL just makes me think of that American comedy show ;) ) strikes me as being worth pursuing just because it would create such an interesting dynamic for the 19th century to come, even though Pompejus does make good points against it.

A Prussian Flanders isn't entirely out of the question, just not, in my opinion, after Waterloo. There were various scenarios for the southern Netherlands before Vienna. The Netherlands could have ended with just the territory it had before the French revolution (and probably a land connection to the unconnected parts). Although I really don't think Prussia was that interested in it; as I said it took only 1 day to decide the faith of the Netherlands. And even if Prussia gets part of the southern Netherlands, it is a long way to the northsea. I think it is far more likely that Prussia just gets the southeastern part of belgium (luxemburg, Liege) than everything up to west Flanders. But still during the congress of Vienna everything is possible.
 
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