Napoleon Wins at Waterloo... Then is Defeated

[Thucydides]

It's always been my opinion that "The close run thing" was, while close run tactically, would not have made much difference in the long run. So, supposing Napoleon wins at Waterloo, but is then defeated by the rest of the coalition when he goes for the Rhine. What happens? What is the peace like?

And let's suppose Napoleon dies at this second battle.

 

[mowque]

Depends, which armies are present? Maybe less British troops= less British say in the final peace? A 'Continental" victory, instead of a British one, like OTL?

 

[Thucydides]

Depends, which armies are present? Maybe less British troops= less British say in the final peace? A 'Continental" victory, instead of a British one, like OTL?

Basically like that.

Wellington and Blucher and completely defeated, routed from the field.

Napoleon moves against the Austrian Army of the Upper Rhine, he skirmishes with them and forces them to retreat to meet up with the Russian Army that would have crossed the Rhine by then. Together the armies (now numbering over 400,000) defeat Napoleon decisively.

So it's basically a Austro-Russian victory, although Prussia still gets some say in it because they escape with a little more than the British do.

 

[Anaxagoras]

I do not think it would make a tremendous difference in a geopolitical sense, but it would certainly make a cultural difference. In the English-speaking world, Waterloo would not go down as the greatest battle ever fought in the entire history of the human race. More attention would therefore be devoted towards the Peninsular War.

 

[Falecius]

The longer the French resist, the more they lose at the peace. Some more places on the border will be given to the Netherlands (Dunkirk perhaps?) and Prussia (probably not the whole Alsace-Lorraine but maybe a good chunk of the Moselle department). Maybe also some colonies lost, Guadaloupe being the foremost candidate (to Sweden) and Reunion or French India (to Britain) the second ones.
I hardly see the Saxony-Polish arrangement radically modified by a mainly Austro-Russian victory, though there's the possibility that Prussia gets something more in the West and hands some more chunks of Poland to the Russians. Austria might arrange something similar with Bavaria, say Bavarian palatinate is expanded at France's expense and Austria get Berchtesgaden for example. Possible, but unlikely, that Sardinia gets Corsica in exchange for some land west of the Ticino in Italy to Austria.
Butterflies could flap a lot in strange places like britsh occupied Indonesia.

 

[Thucydides]

The longer the French resist, the more they lose at the peace. Some more places on the border will be given to the Netherlands (Dunkirk perhaps?) and Prussia (probably not the whole Alsace-Lorraine but maybe a good chunk of the Moselle department). Maybe also some colonies lost, Guadaloupe being the foremost candidate (to Sweden) and Reunion or French India (to Britain) the second ones.
I hardly see the Saxony-Polish arrangement radically modified by a mainly Austro-Russian victory, though there's the possibility that Prussia gets something more in the West and hands some more chunks of Poland to the Russians. Austria might arrange something similar with Bavaria, say Bavarian palatinate is expanded at France's expense and Austria get Berchtesgaden for example. Possible, but unlikely, that Sardinia gets Corsica in exchange for some land west of the Ticino in Italy to Austria.
Butterflies could flap a lot in strange places like britsh occupied Indonesia.

Even if the Austro-Russian Army takes Paris first? Because in OTL hostilities ceased and the peace of Vienna was signed only when the Anglo-Prussian army took Paris.

 

[Falecius]

Even if the Austro-Russian Army takes Paris first? Because in OTL hostilities ceased and the peace of Vienna was signed only when the Anglo-Prussian army took Paris.

Thing is, what else would Austria and Russia be going to get, even if they take Paris. None of them would want Alsace, I guess, unless France resists more than an year or so. If Paris is taken, say, in the fall of 1816 by an Austro Russian army you can have a Carthaginian peace for France and Britain having little say in such things as the fate of Belgium. Still, the Wacht am Rhein would be Prussia's task. Austria and Russia will have compensation further east, but there will be problems: Austria is unwilling to let the Russians expand further into Poland and is eager to keep and indepent Saxony as a buffer between herself and Prussia. Russia on the contrary would like to annex all the former Duchy of Warsaw, offering something else to compensate Prussia for it. Alsace-Lorraine might be fine, Belgium would be a possibility.
In the event of a punitive peace, French losses in the colonies would still go to British advantage in most cases, with the exception of Guadeloupe (primised to the Swedes). The Netherlands also might get a chunk.
Austria does not want Belgium back in any case.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Thing is, what else would Austria and Russia be going to get, even if they take Paris. None of them would want Alsace, I guess, unless France resists more than an year or so. If Paris is taken, say, in the fall of 1816 by an Austro Russian army you can have a Carthaginian peace for France and Britain having little say in such things as the fate of Belgium. Still, the Wacht am Rhein would be Prussia's task. Austria and Russia will have compensation further east, but there will be problems: Austria is unwilling to let the Russians expand further into Poland and is eager to keep and indepent Saxony as a buffer between herself and Prussia. Russia on the contrary would like to annex all the former Duchy of Warsaw, offering something else to compensate Prussia for it. Alsace-Lorraine might be fine, Belgium would be a possibility.
In the event of a punitive peace, French losses in the colonies would still go to British advantage in most cases, with the exception of Guadeloupe (primised to the Swedes). The Netherlands also might get a chunk.
Austria does not want Belgium back in any case.

Hmm could the Austrians be given/keep Wurzburg with Bavaria gaining instead an enlarged palatinate perhaps even to the extent of the current Lander of Rhineland Pfalz making the Wacht am Rhein a joint Prussian and Bavarian endeavour. Saxony might not loose as much terr. to Prussia but its a given that they loose something...and the Austrians with a stronger bargaining position do want them as a strong buffer. there is also Further Austria/ the Breisgau, occupied by Baden Could they perhaps get that back at Baden's expense. perhaps as duchies under a cadet Hapsburg line such us Karl or Rudolf say. All of this would be befitting an Austria as the prime German architect of German liberation and the lessor role of both Prussia and Britain.

As stated, they may prefer compensations in the east but the Hapsburgs would also take a greater interest directly in Germany itself as well. Francis of Modena for instance could receive Briesgau with Modena/Reggio going to the Dukes of Parma as a sop to the Spanish who had endured so much during the peninsular war. Or perhaps Baden gains OTL Bavarian palatinate insead as compensation for the loss of Breisgau and Bavaria gains Julich-Berg and the Moselle Rhine valley as its Rhineland terr. With Prussia gaining only Westphalia and Cleves, their position after all is not nearly as prestigious as OTL.

 

[archaeogeek]

If France keeps fighting it's a given Saxony is in a bad situation.

Breisgau is unlikely to return to Austria; Francis of Modena only got it as a compensation and Austria will liekly be eager to get rid of faraway exclaves. Chances are they might push for compensations elsewhere if at all.

I feel that people are underestimating the weight of diplomacy at Vienna; besides, Austria was very much not in the Francia delenda est camp, and Metternich saw it as counter to Austrian interests as Bourbon France was at this point seen as an ally.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

If France keeps fighting it's a given Saxony is in a bad situation.

Breisgau is unlikely to return to Austria; Francis of Modena only got it as a compensation and Austria will liekly be eager to get rid of faraway exclaves. Chances are they might push for compensations elsewhere if at all.

I feel that people are underestimating the weight of diplomacy at Vienna; besides, Austria was very much not in the Francia delenda est camp, and Metternich saw it as counter to Austrian interests as Bourbon France was at this point seen as an ally.

Saxony is in a bad position only if they remain in the French camp, by this point they may have finally jumped to the Austrian.

Breisgau ( by my reading a paternal inheritance) can be reached across Lake Konstanz from Vorarlberg... it would no more be an exclave any more than Modena /Reggio (a maternal inheritance )

but you are correct about the Viennese diplomacy, none of these however actually diminishes the relationship with the Bourbons.