Hoche is indeed a favorite of mine also.
Since his death by disease was caused by his exile following his disgrace, it's quite possible it would be butterflied away. Even possible Hoche's own coup would suceed ( say pichegru is sent to take Bonapartes' place, so isn't approched by Hoche and therefore cannot betray him ).
If not and butterflies are kept to a minimum until the coup against the directoire, the usual suspects to take power instead of Napoleon and become Consul ( though maybe not FIRST consul ) are Massena and Moreau, as they had the most popularity at that point and the conspirators needed a popular general as a figurehead.
Would either of them pull a Monk? For Moreau the answer is definitely no. For Massena, barely possibly, if royal power is very limited, as he was very venal, but I still think not. Both had rather strong republican ideas.
The main point is that neither was as ambitious as Napoleon and both wanted a genuine republic, I don't see either going for life consulate, much less empire. Similarly, they won't try to conquer everything in sight as soon as anyone disobey an order.
SO the First french republic is likely to stay alive up to now, in consulate form.