What if Kutuzov is killed at Austerlitz and Barclay wasn't promoted to Minister of War due to his foreign nationality?
On 1812, Napoleon invades Russia. But, instead of his mammoth 650,000 army, he goes by with just somewhere between 400,000 to 500,000 men, thereby helping their mobility and supply. He defeates and kills Bagration, who brought a larger part of the Russian army than in OTL, at Borodino. But, instead of directly assaulting the Russian positions, he uses Austerlitz-style maneuver that, although his casualties are more or less OTL, maybe even a bit more, he all but destroys Russia's standing army, pursuing it to a not-burned Moscow. There, he orders supply dumps to be made in Western Russia. He loots supplies in Moscow and starts marching west, due to winter, earlier than in OTL. There are very few raids due to the Russian army being reformed by militia, and, although a lot of Napoleon's troops die, it's much less severe that in OTL due to supplies, less troops, and they're closer to Poland.
So, 1813 starts with almost the same situation. Although the Russians have way less regulars and much more militia, while Napoleon's army, although destroyed, still has way more veterans and WAY more cavalry. Does Napoleon have a good chance of turning back the hordes of the Coalition or, as per OTL, the numbers game was really too much for him?
On 1812, Napoleon invades Russia. But, instead of his mammoth 650,000 army, he goes by with just somewhere between 400,000 to 500,000 men, thereby helping their mobility and supply. He defeates and kills Bagration, who brought a larger part of the Russian army than in OTL, at Borodino. But, instead of directly assaulting the Russian positions, he uses Austerlitz-style maneuver that, although his casualties are more or less OTL, maybe even a bit more, he all but destroys Russia's standing army, pursuing it to a not-burned Moscow. There, he orders supply dumps to be made in Western Russia. He loots supplies in Moscow and starts marching west, due to winter, earlier than in OTL. There are very few raids due to the Russian army being reformed by militia, and, although a lot of Napoleon's troops die, it's much less severe that in OTL due to supplies, less troops, and they're closer to Poland.
So, 1813 starts with almost the same situation. Although the Russians have way less regulars and much more militia, while Napoleon's army, although destroyed, still has way more veterans and WAY more cavalry. Does Napoleon have a good chance of turning back the hordes of the Coalition or, as per OTL, the numbers game was really too much for him?