What if the French under Napoleon III and his field marshals defeated the Prussian forces at sedan causing heavy loses and possibly even wounded the kaiser would the Prussians seek peace or continue to attack the french?
i could see a Neutral South German confederation which could either be a Democracy with a presidency or a monarchy headed by the BavariansA victory at Sedan would require a few prior PoD's, such as Bazaine not being a dumbass and pressing his numerical advantage at Mars-La-Tour.
Still, i hear that French defensive doctrine at the time called for a steady retreat to Paris, with scorched earth tactics and harassment, in preparation for a large urban siege (that would surely break some records for its time). The Prussians already had trouble subduing Paris IOTL, so i'd expect their job to be even harder if Napoleon III is at the city to properly prepare its defenses. Who would effectively win that siege is a whole question in itself, but my money is on the French.
If the Prussians and their allies realise that they've caught themselves in a long war of attrition rather than a brief, "Bismarckian" war, then i can see the German alliance weakening. If the Siege of Paris ends up a fiasco and the French push them back to the Rhine, then some of the more independent-minded German states, such as Bavaria, are likely to revolt.
I could see the war ending with the terms being that France and the North German Confederation don't gain any territory from the other side (they'd be both exhausted), while the South German Confederation is either turned into a neutral state or a French allied one.
Most likely, a confederation of three conservative monarchies, de facto headed by the King of Bavaria.i could see a Neutral South German confederation which could either be a Democracy with a presidency or a monarchy headed by the Bavarians
So almost like a weird HRE in a wayMost likely, a confederation of three conservative monarchies, de facto headed by the King of Bavaria.
Most likely, a confederation of three conservative monarchies, de facto headed by the King of Bavaria.
There was some talk of Austria building a revanchist alliance during the period - this may give them enough capital to push that, and also may bring them in league with the South Germans
Or the South Germans are even more eager to seek unification with the Prussians since they are the ones who will be invaded by France and Austria.There was some talk of Austria building a revanchist alliance during the period - this may give them enough capital to push that, and also may bring them in league with the South Germans
Agree with earlier poster, victory at Sedan would have required a significant POD well before the actual battle. If we just go by the events of OTL leading up to the battle, a German defeat would have required a SIGNIFICANT tactical error on the side of the Germans, out of all character to their conduct of the war to that point. It would be a little like finding a way for the Russians to win the battle of Tannenberg. Any French victory at Sedan would probably not prove decisive in any event considering the overall strategic situation at the time (Bazaine hopelessly encircled at Metz, the disparity in available forces, etc.). It probably prolongs the war, and keeps Napoleon III on the throne, but Alsace and Lorraine would still be lost and Germany united anyway.
I agree about the Germany united part since from the moment France declares war on Prussia, they have lost this battle: If they loose like IOTL, Germany united in victory disease, of they win and force separation, they trigger a national resistance movement.It probably prolongs the war, and keeps Napoleon III on the throne, but Alsace and Lorraine would still be lost and Germany united anyway.
The "trauma" of the loss of Alsace and Lorraine was just a convenient rallying point for something deeper, the loss of French pride. Even if Germany had given back AL after the war, the humiliating nature of the French defeat would have still festered till the outbreak of WW1, in fact it was the primary reason for WW1.I agree about the Germany united part since from the moment France declares war on Prussia, they have lost this battle: If they loose like IOTL, Germany united in victory disease, of they win and force separation, they trigger a national resistance movement.
But A-L wasn’t the reason why the Franco-Prussian war started. The Germans took it because they could, not because they thought Germany was incomplete without like the French did.
And last but not least: Given how much of a trauma the loss of A-L was, can you imagine Napoleon‘s regime surviving without it?
I agree about the Germany united part since from the moment France declares war on Prussia, they have lost this battle: If they loose like IOTL, Germany united in victory disease, of they win and force separation, they trigger a national resistance movement.
But A-L wasn’t the reason why the Franco-Prussian war started. The Germans took it because they could, not because they thought Germany was incomplete without like the French did.
And last but not least: Given how much of a trauma the loss of A-L was, can you imagine Napoleon‘s regime surviving without it?