Napoleon Returns to Spain

[kaijudirector]

What if, after Wagram, Napoleon decides to handle the Spain problem himself? Of course, there is one caveat I will throw: if Napoleon doesn't beat Wellington and cure the Spanish ulcer by June 1812, he will still have to go to Russia.

So with that in mind, assuming the campaign starts from late 1809/early-1810 and lasts until June 1812, what can either side do before the deadline?

 

[Neal Caffrey]

Suchet would probably become the second most prominent man in Spain when Napoleon sees that his way of doing stuff is actually effective, he won't win in Spain, three years is too little time but he might be able to appease the population and make the situation tenable and workable for Joseph.

Also if he managed to win against Wellington and perhaps even kill him the Peninsula campaign will be a whole lot tougher now, the other effects are kinda hard to pin because I think it comes down to the reactions of other powers like Russia and what they will do with Spain not being a shitshow for Napoleon.

 

[Duke of Reichstadt]

I would assume something similar would happen in all honesty. Napoleon would bring with him a large force, too large for any Anglo-Portugese or Guerilla army to stand up to; any pitched battle with the strength if such a force would be disastrous for the comparatively smaller armies.

Napoleon would most likely force Wellington to make a beeline for the coast and evacuate similar to Moore, as the British goal was to maintain their field army, and there would be no sense in them dying needlessly. If Napoleon did catch the British, it could've temporarily quieted the region, but he would still have to conquer Portugal or pacify Spain.

Overall it could buy him more time. If he defeats the British army decisively, it would buy him much more time.

 

[Sarthak]

By the time of Wagram, the Lines of Torres Vedras were already near completion. By the time Nappy arrives, Wellington and the Portuguese will retreat there. the fortifications were too powerful for any army to attack. Napoleon will face the same problem as that of Massena.

 

[Dupplin Muir]

I'm not sure why Suchet gets such a good press. The French dilemma in Spain was that if they concentrated to face Wellington, then it gave the guerrillas free-rein, but if they dispersed to fight the guerrillas they ran the risk of being defeated in detail if the British chose to advance. Suchet was operating on the east coast, a long way from the Portuguese border, and was thus able to concentrate on counter-insurgency campaigns, in a way that Massena, Marmont and the other marshals could not.

 

[Neal Caffrey]

I'm not sure why Suchet gets such a good press. The French dilemma in Spain was that if they concentrated to face Wellington, then it gave the guerrillas free-rein, but if they dispersed to fight the guerrillas they ran the risk of being defeated in detail if the British chose to advance. Suchet was operating on the east coast, a long way from the Portuguese border, and was thus able to concentrate on counter-insurgency campaigns, in a way that Massena, Marmont and the other marshals could not.

He gets good press because he was really good at counter insurgency, not all generals would have been as able as he was in his role in not only destroying the insurgency in Spain but actually winning the hearts and minds of the populace.

It also helps that he was a good commander in his own and in the post war Napoleon would name him as his best commander.

 

[Just a Turteldove Fan]

Well I will remember to all of you that duke of Wellington army is not the only one. The Spanish also had an army and won an impressive victory in Bailen. Seriously in this forums Wellington importance is overstated. He played a factor in the victory but he did not win the Peninsular war alone. In fact he was more like a support army, because even without them the Spanish and Portuguese will defeat any french armies if Napoleon wasn't there. So to keep it simple Napoleon is going to be forced to divide to fight the spanish guerrilla meaning that they are helpless against the big armies or try to destroy the big armies while having massive casualties in the process and probably not achiving anything. The Spanish people will not be pacified and the will fight. The same for the Portuguese. So Napoleon achiving almost nothing will retreat to prepare Russia. This campaign will cost even more resources in a helpless war and France will probably strugle even more in manpower terms.

 

[Just a Turteldove Fan]

I mean he was very important, but his mayor actions were confined to Portugal in the early war and later he did fight with the spanish force. So to keep it simple he was important, indeed but he alone didn't win the war.

 

[DAv]

I mean he was very important, but his mayor actions were confined to Portugal in the early war and later he did fight with the spanish force. So to keep it simple he was important, indeed but he alone didn't win the war.

He was the most effective Commander against the French, however. He did earn a string of victories against the French and help bolster both morale and the chances of an Allied victory that few others could boast of. The Spanish victory at Bailen was great, but could be argued the French lost it as much as Spain won and they failed to follow up the momentum as consistently Wellington did with his victories. Without British support, the Spanish and Portuguese chances to drive out the French become much slimmer, especially for those who relied on said support for supplies.

 

[alexmilman]

What if, after Wagram, Napoleon decides to handle the Spain problem himself? Of course, there is one caveat I will throw: if Napoleon doesn't beat Wellington and cure the Spanish ulcer by June 1812, he will still have to go to Russia.

So with that in mind, assuming the campaign starts from late 1809/early-1810 and lasts until June 1812, what can either side do before the deadline?

There was nothing magic about 1812 as a year when Napoleon had to go to Russia. The OTL timing was a byproduct of the numerous factors main of which was concentration of the French (and allied) forces in the Duchy and East Prussia in a response to which Alexander started concentrating his forces along the border and raising the new troops.

So if Napoleon is in Spain and there is a limited French military presence on the East, the Russian campaign does not happen in 1812 and, if Napoleon is successful in Spain, it may not happen at all because Alexander probably would be much more accommodating than in OTL.

To make a long story short, there was no “deadline”.

 

[alexmilman]

By the time of Wagram, the Lines of Torres Vedras were already near completion. By the time Nappy arrives, Wellington and the Portuguese will retreat there. the fortifications were too powerful for any army to attack. Napoleon will face the same problem as that of Massena.

“Third Line, surrounding the Fort of São Julião da Barra near Lisbon, was built to protect Wellington’s evacuation by sea from the fort” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lines_of_Torres_Vedras

Which probably indicates that Wellington did not consider his defenses as absolutely impregnable. It would be an issue of the dedication, skills and resources on attacking side. It is quite possible that the main problem for Napoleon in this scenario would be supplies: Massena retreated due to the shortage of food and fodder but he was notoriously bad in supply organization.

Then, it remains an open question in which shape and with how many troops Wellington would make it to Torres Vedras. Would he run immediately after Napoleon’s arrival, would he try to fight? etc.

A realistic option for Napoleon is not even try to attack the lines (why bother?) but to simply play Wellington’s own game on Wellington: Wellington implemented a scorched earth policy on the area near the lines and Napoleon could start methodically implementing it on a whole Portugal. The country is left undefended and “if your opponent occupied impregnable position, take care that he will remain in that position” (Terry Pritchett). If Wellington is bottled near Lisbon, let him stay there for as long as possible.

Wellington can keep sitting behind the lines being supplied by the sea but he can’t get too far out of them because by his and Nappy’s joined effort there is no food anywhere (which means that Spain is reasonably secure). I’m not sure for how long the Portuguese would keep welcoming their “defenders” in this scenario and what is the chance for the government of Portugal to start suing for peace before the whole country is absolutely ruined?

 

[Diego]

Well, the French Marshals had a big problem in the form of infighting, but Napoleon will not suffer from this problem, he can take full advantage of the entirety of the French forces in Spain, with Napoleon there I think the French will be able to use their resources efficiently, or at least more efficiently than OTL.