Napoleon remains king of Italy

[Deleted member 143920]

What circumstances would have to occur, ideally after the Battle of Leipzig, for Napoleon (and his descendants) to remain king of Italy?

I've already decided that to make it realistic, the Kingdom of Italy would be reduced to its original borders of 1805 (before the annexation of Austrian and Papal land). Perhaps Napoleon is able to crush the Prussian army at Soissons circa March 4th had the Franco-Polish garrison holding the bridge hadn't surrendered, causing a battle in which Blucher is unable to escape, causing him to be defeated and surrender. Upon defeating the Prussian army Napoleon would march south to face the much larger Austrian army, and so he himself is defeated. Following the battle, the Austrians would offer another peace, in which he could remain King of Italy, with its borders reduced to that of 1805 if he abdicated the French throne and surrendered all other territories. Could this be a realistic way to cause the scenario? If not, then what would have to occur?

Had this scenario occurred, would it significantly impact the balance of power in Europe? How would it influence future events such as the revolutions of 1830 and 1848, the unification of Italy, etc?

Northern Italy in 1803:

Note: the territory of the Italian Republic would be the equivalent to what Napoleon remains king of.

 

[bbctol]

Unfortunately, it's really hard to create plausible outcomes where Napoleon retains limited power, especially this far into the Napoleonic Wars. It had become clear that the war would only end with Napoleon's total victory or total defeat; the powers of Europe weren't going to stop trying to depose someone who represented an existential threat to the legitimacy of monarchies across Europe and the concept of the balance of power, and Napoleon wasn't going to stop trying to eliminate all these threats to his rule. If he'd been more willing to negotiate earlier on (an earlier marriage to a European princess, maybe?) he *might* have been allowed to remain legitimate ruler of France, although he probably couldn't escape war with Britain, and the idea of deposing him and restoring the Bourbons would still be a tempting prospect.

By 1813, though, even if Napoleon had crushed the Prussian army, why wouldn't victorious Austrians send him to Elba anyway? This scenario needs Napoleon to be defeated enough he surrenders, but powerful enough he still needs some sort of concession, and I don't see why a Coalition would see fit to give him anything. On the flip side, if this scenario does come to pass, I can't imagine Napoleon doing anything with the Kingdom of Italy other than what he did on Elba; muster all his resources to return to France and resume being emperor.

 

[xerex]

, if this scenario does come to pass, I can't imagine Napoleon doing anything with the Kingdom of Italy other than what he did on Elba; muster all his resources to return to France and resume being emperor.

This. Boney isnt going to stop trying to regain his throne.

 

[Deleted member 143920]

Unfortunately, it's really hard to create plausible outcomes where Napoleon retains limited power, especially this far into the Napoleonic Wars.

I thought I had? The Prussian army would be defeated, and because most of it was itself Russian, meaning that Prussia was out of the war and Russian forces were severely weakened. And while the British and Spanish were in northern Spain/southern France, they weren't an immediate threat to Napoleon yet. With Napoleon only facing the Austrian army (with the rest of Russian forces included), he would have been able to receive some concession, which is what I proposed in my scenario.

It had become clear that the war would only end with Napoleon's total victory or total defeat; the powers of Europe weren't going to stop trying to depose someone who represented an existential threat to the legitimacy of monarchies across Europe and the concept of the balance of power, and Napoleon wasn't going to stop trying to eliminate all these threats to his rule.

If there was one nation who was happy to let Napoleon remain in power, it would be the very nation he would then be defeated by. Austria. For example, following the battle of Leipzig, they offered Napoleon the Frankfurt Proposals, which considering Napoleon's situation, were quite generous. These alternate proposals in March 1814 would be proportional to Napoleon's situation then as had been the Frankfurt Proposals of November 1813.

If he'd been more willing to negotiate earlier on (an earlier marriage to a European princess, maybe?) he *might* have been allowed to remain legitimate ruler of France, although he probably couldn't escape war with Britain, and the idea of deposing him and restoring the Bourbons would still be a tempting prospect.

That wouldn't be possible, and I did say that I would prefer for this scenario to occur after the battle of Leipzig in 1813, and not say after the Treaty of Tilsit in 1807, which would completely disprove the whole point of this thread.

By 1813, though, even if Napoleon had crushed the Prussian army, why wouldn't victorious Austrians send him to Elba anyway?

Because they didn't want to. The only advocates of such an extreme punishment (including the death penalty) were Britain and Prussia. Not even Russia wanted to completely rid France of the Bonapartes, as they had suggested after Napoleon's first abdication IOTL that Napoleon's son should remain Emperor.

This scenario needs Napoleon to be defeated enough he surrenders, but powerful enough he still needs some sort of concession, and I don't see why a Coalition would see fit to give him anything.

Again, I literally created that scenario.

On the flip side, if this scenario does come to pass, I can't imagine Napoleon doing anything with the Kingdom of Italy other than what he did on Elba; muster all his resources to return to France and resume being emperor.

Although it was small when compared to France, at least he remained a King with a considerable realm; and not just some fake Emperor on a tiny Island (Elba)

@Basileus_Komnenos and @alexmilman what do you think?

 

[xerex]

As @xerex said, he wouldn't precisely because he's been given the Kingdom of Italy. And although it was small when compared to France, at least he remained a King with a considerable realm; and not just some fake Emperor on a tiny Island (Elba).

Actually I was agreeing with @bbctol. Boney wont be satisfied with anything less than France. And even then he'll just be preparing to wage war 10 years down the line.

 

[Deleted member 143920]

Actually I was agreeing with @bbctol. Boney wont be satisfied with anything less than France. And even then he'll just be preparing to wage war 10 years down the line.

Ah, my bad. I misread your post; sorry. I changed my post considering your explanation. As for everything else, what do you think?

 

[Intosh]

What circumstances would have to occur, ideally after the Battle of Leipzig, for Napoleon (and his descendants) to remain king of Italy?

I've already decided that to make it realistic, the Kingdom of Italy would be reduced to its original borders of 1805 (before the annexation of Austrian and Papal land). Perhaps Napoleon is able to crush the Prussian army at Soissons circa March 4th had the Franco-Polish garrison holding the bridge hadn't surrendered, causing a battle in which Blucher is unable to escape, causing him to be defeated and surrender. Upon defeating the Prussian army Napoleon would march south to face the much larger Austrian army, and so he himself is defeated. Following the battle, the Austrians would offer another peace, in which he could remain King of Italy, with its borders reduced to that of 1805 if he abdicated the French throne and surrendered all other territories. Could this be a realistic way to cause the scenario? If not, then what would have to occur?

Had this scenario occurred, would it significantly impact the balance of power in Europe? How would it influence future events such as the revolutions of 1830 and 1848, the unification of Italy, etc?

Northern Italy in 1803:
View attachment 659298
Note: the territory of the Italian Republic would be the equivalent to what Napoleon remains king of.

Napoleon was Corsican first, and French second. He had no ties with Italy except speaking an average level of Italian.

And even his ties with Corsica were bad because the Paolist faction despised the Bonaparte who were traitors to the Corsican cause. Remember that after the war against the French, the father of Napoleon did everything he can to please the new government and his family was recognised as noble and received a free education for his older sons.

 

[Diego]

What circumstances would have to occur, ideally after the Battle of Leipzig, for Napoleon (and his descendants) to remain king of Italy?

I've already decided that to make it realistic, the Kingdom of Italy would be reduced to its original borders of 1805 (before the annexation of Austrian and Papal land). Perhaps Napoleon is able to crush the Prussian army at Soissons circa March 4th had the Franco-Polish garrison holding the bridge hadn't surrendered, causing a battle in which Blucher is unable to escape, causing him to be defeated and surrender. Upon defeating the Prussian army Napoleon would march south to face the much larger Austrian army, and so he himself is defeated. Following the battle, the Austrians would offer another peace, in which he could remain King of Italy, with its borders reduced to that of 1805 if he abdicated the French throne and surrendered all other territories. Could this be a realistic way to cause the scenario? If not, then what would have to occur?

Had this scenario occurred, would it significantly impact the balance of power in Europe? How would it influence future events such as the revolutions of 1830 and 1848, the unification of Italy, etc?

I think that Napoleon would agree to that if he is forced by his marshals to surrender. Also I think that Napoleon would not try to get back to France if it meant dethroning his own son and if he doesn't feel that his personal security is at risk, so I think that the Austrians could offer:

1 - Napoleon keeps the kingdom of Italy as a personal lordship and he could rule it as he wants, only the military power of the kingdom will be limited. The kingdom should be dissolved after his death.
2 - Napoleon will be able to bring Marie Louise with him
3 - Napoleon II will be kept with parents for another two years, then sent back to France under the tutelage of someone that both Napoleon and Francis I could agree, he would also be allowed to visit his parents.
4 - During the minority of Napoleon II he will be under the Regency of his uncle.

 

[Deleted member 143920]

Napoleon was Corsican first, and French second. He had no ties with Italy except speaking an average level of Italian.

He was king of Italy, which in this scenario he remains.

And even his ties with Corsica were bad because the Paolist faction despised the Bonaparte who were traitors to the Corsican cause.

How does this relate to the scenario?

I think that Napoleon would agree to that if he is forced by his marshals to surrender.

Most likely as this battle would essentially be a second, yet smaller, battle of Leipzig (except it's in France).

Also I think that Napoleon would not try to get back to France if it meant dethroning his own son and if he doesn't feel that his personal security is at risk, so I think that the Austrians could offer:

1 - Napoleon keeps the kingdom of Italy as a personal lordship and he could rule it as he wants, only the military power of the kingdom will be limited. The kingdom should be dissolved after his death.

Possibly, although I'm more in favour of it being hereditary (It gets passed down to his son). Not to mention that if Napoleon's son doesn't inherit the kingdom, then he needs to be compensated some how. Also, even if it's given to someone else after the death of Napoleon, would it remain intact?

2 - Napoleon will be able to bring Marie Louise with him

Obviously, and his son.

3 - Napoleon II will be kept with parents for another two years, then sent back to France under the tutelage of someone that both Napoleon and Francis I could agree, he would also be allowed to visit his parents.

And why would this be the case? It's his son after all. He won't agree to ANY peace if he isn't allowed to keep both his wife and son.

4 - During the minority of Napoleon II he will be under the Regency of his uncle.

For what kingdom? Unless the Kingdom of Italy is hereditary, then he won't have a kingdom (as you explicitly mentioned earlier in your post).

A little advice for both @Intosh and @Diego when writing your posts, and this is from personal experience, be clearer/explain yourself as otherwise it will be confusing and others won't understand what you mean.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

I think that Napoleon would agree to that if he is forced by his marshals to surrender. Also I think that Napoleon would not try to get back to France if it meant dethroning his own son and if he doesn't feel that his personal security is at risk, so I think that the Austrians could offer:

1 - Napoleon keeps the kingdom of Italy as a personal lordship and he could rule it as he wants, only the military power of the kingdom will be limited. The kingdom should be dissolved after his death.

It was SUPPOSED to go to Eugène de Beauharnais, who was FAR more palatable to the Bourbons/Allies than Boney. Metternich had actually proposed (via Maximilian I) a similar scenario to Eugène if he'd drop his stepdad. Eugène refused.

2 - Napoleon will be able to bring Marie Louise with him

Nope. If Napoléon's son stays in Paris, the Austrians will want her there. If the Bourbons are restored, her dad might want her and his grandson back in Vienna. I strongly doubt Napoléon is getting his wife.

 

[Basileus_Komnenos]

Napoleon was Corsican first, and French second. He had no ties with Italy except speaking an average level of Italian.

A big hole in that notion is when Napoleon publicly declared himself the symbol of the French Revolution, dressed himself in the robes of French nationalism, and eventually stylized himself as a French monarch through the French Empire trying to emulate the Frankish Emperor Charlemagne.

Metternich had actually proposed (via Maximilian I) a similar scenario to Eugène if he'd drop his stepdad. Eugène refused.

I doubt the allies would have actually followed through on that promise. Plus Eugene was deeply loyal to Napoleon viewing him as a father figure of sorts. Eugene would be one of the last people to actually betray Napoleon like that.

If there was one nation who was happy to let Napoleon remain in power, it would be the very nation he would then be defeated by. Austria. For example, following the battle of Leipzig, they offered Napoleon the Frankfurt Proposals, which considering Napoleon's situation, were quite generous. These alternate proposals in March 1814 would be proportional to Napoleon's situation then as had been the Frankfurt Proposals of November 1813.

To be fair to Napoleon, he nearly won Leipzig. He nearly had a Miracle of the House of Brandenburg moment as the French army almost captured Tsar Alexander, King Friederich Wilhelm III, and a bunch of other staff officers. This would have forced a stalemate and likely would have allowed France to retain its power in Germany and Italy. Napoleon's allies were still on the fence about whether to change teams or not. Unfortunately this didn't happen to Napoleon.

If however Catherine the Great lived longer, Friederich II would have been screwed as Russia and Austria would eat Prussia's lunch making Friederich seen as in much less favorable light in history.

For what kingdom? Unless the Kingdom of Italy is hereditary, then he won't have a kingdom (as you explicitly mentioned earlier in your post).

There were discussions and some plans of merging the title of "Roi de Rome" with that of the Kingdom of Italy.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

If however Catherine the Great lived longer, Friederich II would have been screwed as Russia and Austria would eat Prussia's lunch making Friederich seen as in much less favorable light in history.

think you mean Elizabeth Petrovna. Ekaterina outlived Friedrich II

 

[Diego]

I strongly doubt Napoléon is getting his wife.

"Never tell me the odds!"
Han Solo

For what kingdom? Unless the Kingdom of Italy is hereditary, then he won't have a kingdom (as you explicitly mentioned earlier in your post).

For no kingdom, but the French Empire.

A little advice for both @Intosh and @Diego when writing your posts, and this is from personal experience, be clearer/explain yourself as otherwise it will be confusing and others won't understand what you mean.

I said on the top that Napoleon would not come back if it meant dethroning his son, the only place where his son would be the current ruler would be France.

And why would this be the case? It's his son after all. He won't agree to ANY peace if he isn't allowed to keep both his wife and son.

Because his son would be de jure head of state of France, and the emperor of France being educated outside of France could make the French people dislike its own emperor as a kind of Austro-Italian foreigner, it would be better if he is educated in France, even better in Paris, but if it is not in Paris, at least in French territory. State affairs are above family affairs.

And why would this be the case? It's his son after all. He won't agree to ANY peace if he isn't allowed to keep both his wife and son.

forced by his marshals

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Nope ,Catherine the Great (He was talking about a Hypothetical scenario not fact)who was suceeded by her Prussophile son(Peter III) who pulled out of the war and returned all of the territories seized from prussia.

Ekaterina was Pyotr's wife, Pyotr's aunt/predecessor was Elizabeth Petrovna