Napoleon lll victory in the Franco-Prussian War

The problem for lil Nappy was that his 20 years of foreign policy were not exactly studded with successes, notwithstanding his participation in an impressive number of foreign wars:
  • in 1854 France participated in the Crimean war. It was a reasonable proposition from French point of view, but the war did not bring any outstanding benefit to the French
  • in 1859 Nappy joined Piedmont-Sardinia in the 2nd war of Italian independence. Tactically the war was a victory: France-Sardinia won and France got Nice and Savoy. Strategically it was a disaster, since the French plan was to end up being the puppet masters in an Italy divided into three (four including the papal states) kingdoms, but the outcome was that the king of Sardinia became the king of a unified Italy, which was the last things the French wanted. Worst than that, the Roman question proved to be a persistent problem in the Italo-French relations, and Nappy could not afford to have Rome taken by Italy since the catholics were the main supporters of his regime.
  • in 1863 Nappy embarked in the ill-fated Mexican adventure, which ended up in an unmitigated disaster.
  • in 1866 (war of Prussia and Italy against Austria) his master plan was to wait and arbitrate the peace settlement (or maybe enter in the war to support Austria against Prussia): the quick collapse of Austria pre-empted either option.
  • in 1867 he tried to purchase Luxembourg from the king of the Netherlands, but once again was stopped by the Prussian veto.
  • during 1868 and 1869 he tried to put together an alliance with Italy and Austria aimed against Prussia. Italy never showed much interest, Austria dithered a lot but ultimately the Hungarian opposition kept them out of any alliance with France. Then the crisis of the Spanish succession came along.

Not exactly a good record. What's worse the economic situation was worsening in the late 1860s, and a few bad harvests did not help. At the beginning of 1870 Nappy was a bit on the edge, and needed a "short, victorious war" to shore up his tottering second empire. He got the war he wanted (Bismarck played him like a true pro), and the war was short: unfortunately it was not vctorious.

Given the European situation, I doubt he might have done anything better: Bismarck had already tied the south German kingdoms to the Prussian chariot and had in place a nice re-insurance pact with Russia. The British were certainly not interested in getting involved in any European war. The Roman question made an alliance with Italy almost impossible (even if the king was not against it), Austria was weakened by the previous defeats and the Ausgleich issue.

He had to go alone, and hope to gain some victory before the German mobilization was completed (which was the French plan). Unfortunately the implementation of the plan was quite sluggish and timid, and the German mobilization was completed in just two weeks: at this point there was not much of hope.
 
Just a quibble - please refer to the succession crisis that started the war as the Hohenzollern Candidature. Saying the 'Spanish Succession' might cause confusion with the War of Spanish Succession.

As far as having the French win, as far as I can tell then the French had lost more or less within two weeks of the war beginning due to superior Prussian organisation. To have the French win the war, you really need either A) Something going radically wrong for Prussia, like Austria getting involved B) France being militarily much more capable, in particular better organised and supplied or C) Prussia being much less militarily capable, organised and supplied, or at least being much less than it believed it was.

Problem is, B & C having occured would probably stop the war occuring in the first place. Yet A) is incredibly unlikely. Maybe your best bet is to have the Prussians not reform and develop their army, but have the war occur anyway due to unrelated reasons (maybe a conflict of interest in a German state near the French border) and have the France win from there. Not probable, but possible
 
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Just a quibble - please refer to the succession crisis that started the war as the Hohenzollern Candidature. Saying the 'Spanish Succession' might cause confusion with the War of Spanish Succession.

Since it happened in the 1860 - and we're discussing the Franco-German war of 1870 -, I don't see how it could be confused with the succession crisis of more than 150 years earlier
 
Nappy can win easily enough - by going on the defensive. If the idea occurred to him, he could dig in for trench warfare and allow the Prussians to break themselves on France. It wouldn't even take long, because Prussia is financially incapable of a prolonged war; they win quickly or the don't win.

Defensive warfare, though, is not something Nappy is likely to think of, nor will the generals he likes. He would have had to learn some profound lessons from the Crimea...any way to get Nappy personally present in the Crimean theatre?
 
I'm glad everyone stepped up to break down my scenarios listed. Everyone had some VERY good points. Let's keep this up.....maybe a small TL??
 
Nappy can win easily enough - by going on the defensive. If the idea occurred to him, he could dig in for trench warfare and allow the Prussians to break themselves on France. It wouldn't even take long, because Prussia is financially incapable of a prolonged war; they win quickly or the don't win.

Defensive warfare, though, is not something Nappy is likely to think of, nor will the generals he likes. He would have had to learn some profound lessons from the Crimea...any way to get Nappy personally present in the Crimean theatre?
So Nappy would declare war and avoid any attack, just staying on the defensive? It's a new and intriguing approach :D
Out of the joke, Nappy's real problem is that the political situation in france forces him not just to declare war, but also to gain some successes fast (and his financial situation is not exactly great).
Maybe he could invade the Rhinelands, and assuming he and his generals manage not to bungle it up go on the defensive. However this would put the French army with its back to the Rhine, and if things go pear shaped I'm not betting on Nappy taking his men home.
BTW, the lessons he should have learnt are the ones from the ACW rather than from Crimea, in particular how to make best use of railroads.


I'm glad everyone stepped up to break down my scenarios listed. Everyone had some VERY good points. Let's keep this up.....maybe a small TL??
With the aim of having France win in the end? Not very easy.
IMHO best chance is to invade the Rhinelands immediately, and use this early success to try and make the German southern states renege on their alliance with Prussia. If this works (and it's a big if, since German nationalism is quite hot), it is quite possible that Franz Joseph overrides the Hungarian opposition, and declares war. Obviously the Austrian declaration of war would activate the secret Russo-Prussian compact, with an attack in Galicia.
Suddenly the limited war between France and German Confederation has become a general European conflict, and there is a serious possibility that Italy will also intervene (as a minimum Austria will need to keep enough troops on the Isonzo to avoid a sudden Italian attack).

What happens next is difficult to guess, but my money would likely be on Prussia and Russia (in particular if Italy intervenes). Note that the Austrian declaration of war would go a long way to negate the benefits of the Ausgleich. What is Great Britain going to do? Most likely nothing: it will be a land war, without any major naval component and with limited impact on sensitive areas for them.
 
Unfortunately, Nappy learning from the Crimea is just barely possible, while making him pay attention to the ACW (anyone in Europe, really) is pretty much ASB.

If he must take the Rhinelands for domestic political reasons, then he must. And yes, having your back to a river is never good. But he doesn't have to win any tactical victories, just keep the Prussians from advancing long enough that they mutiny over pay, food and ammo (which will not take long). A narrow loss is as good as a win.

It does seem like handwaving to make him realize all that, though. I don't think anyone on the ground was thinking along those lines :(
 
Will it really be that easy to make the Prussians mutiny over a lack of supplies? Asking because I don't know the situation well enough.

But it seems unlikely given OTL.
 
I don't know how the French could gain victory but I think I know what a victory could mean.

After the Prussian victory Bismark felt that the best way to calm the French was to encourage them to gain land in Africa and Asia. As a result the German colonial empire was small compared to other European powers while the French Empire was the second largest in history.

In a reversal of the FPW, Prussia may attempt to gain a larger share of the world. This would effect future conflicts in Europe as the Prussian would be forced to reorganize their forces from an army designed to a European war to one that is designed to maintain a colonial empire.
 
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