Napoleon invades Ireland

In Bonaparte-4 in the GURPS Infinite Worlds background, Napoleon invades Ireland instead of Egypt in 1798. Burr wins election in 1800 and invades British Canada when France invades England in 1802. By 1807 Nappy has taken Austria, Prussia and Russia and spends the next 20 years master of Europe. His son unites the French and Spanish crowns. The Portuguese king flees to Brazil. France and the US fight border wars over Louisians when France has outside rebellions in its global empire. The wars stalemate every time, but America takes Florida, Oregon and Cuba after them. Meanwhile, Japan invades China in 1894 and defeats Russia in 1905. A global war between the French Empire and Russia, Japan, The United States and Brazil began in 1937 and ended in a 1942 armistice when both sides invented nukes. Now it is 2024, the French Empire is a globe-spanning banana republic, ossifying and constantly drained by rebellions in Latin America, Africa and India. The secret police is in bed with the Union Corse (and what is the Union Corse, btw?), the computer networks link to nothing but posturing student movements and government propaganda, and the maglev trains are always late. On the other hand, the Empire has an overwhelming military advantage and, with its Ottoman allies, a hold on the world's petroleum.
I think that this is my favorite TL described in detail in the book. It does not have the ASB elements most of the worlds have (except that the Centrum TL has begun infiltrating it) and I have always been a fan of Nappy. But how plausible is the PoD? Could Napoleon have successfully invaded Ireland (even with a fog helping him...after all weather often DOES influence history)? And if he did, could that have butterfied into the world described above?
 
The Union Corse is the Corsican mafia.

As for the timeline… even if Napoleon could take the British Isles, Austria and Prussia (definitely not Russia) I can't see his empire lasting that long. Too many people in Europe did not want to take orders from Paris.
 

amphibulous

Banned
The only fog that could have enabled Napoleon to successfully and usefully invade Ireland is the one in the John Carpenter movie. Remember that once there he at least has to keep his army supplied with gunpowder and shot - how does he do this in the face of the Royal Navy? And he can't reinforce the army he has landed, so either he has to land a force to big for the British, who can reinforce, to counter (which is impossible) or a force that will ultimately be outgunned (which is a recipe for certain defeat.)

And what is there in Ireland worth that much effort and risk? Naval units based there will still need supplying from France, so their usefulness is limited to a very low level by the blockades the British already have in place.
 
I honestly think there is zero chance that Napoleon could ever take Britain or Russia, let alone both. He could probably shatter their power at most, but remember Britain, even then, had a whopping empire...
 
If it's in 1798 the French Navy is in a better shape (it's before Aboukir and Trafalgar). Remember this is the same navy that won over the British at the battle of Chesapeak. The problem are the officer, a great part being royalist they had to be change to revolutionarists.

The invasion of Ireland was already thouhgt one century before, under Louis XIV. The plan was to land troops to help Jack II during the XVIIth. The Irish really didn't like the British those days, but I don't know if they would welcome the french as liberator/saviour. Perhaps with a bit of luck and some audace it could be possible to land some troops.

I don't think the conquest of Britain could be done. It could be possible (Really, really, really hard in term of logistics), but not with Russia, Prussia and Austria on the other side of the Rhine.

For Russia, forget it. It's way to big to conquer it. But a succesful invasion, without Moscow burned, with the russian army completly crushed and Petersbug taken (all three hard), a treaty could be signed at Napoleon advantage (a bigger Poland for exemple). By that point, neither Prussia nor Austria are no more a threat to the Empire.

With this front clear, the invasion of Britain could be possible (still hard, but without a second front), but only if the French Navy beats the British one in a reverse Trafalgar.

But it seems way too wank to me.
 
Remicas, the Battle of the Chesapeake was a victory over a smaller British force due to Spanish support which enabled the French to come in greater force than expected.

A few months later this same French fleet was defeated at the Battle of St. Kitts so the first battle really doesn't give any evidence of the French navy being capable of defeating the British 16 years later, even before losing so many officers to the French Revolution while the fleet was allowed to fall apart.
 

amphibulous

Banned
If it's in 1798 the French Navy is in a better shape (it's before Aboukir and Trafalgar). Remember this is the same navy that won over the British at the battle of Chesapeak. The problem are the officer, a great part being royalist they had to be change to revolutionarists.

That's ***one*** of the problems. There many others. Including, but not limited to, the RN being vastly better qualitatively than before, and now engaged in an existential war than a limited one. The main reason for the French victories in the ARW, and hence the success of the Revolution, was that they spent an insane amount of cash and the Brits weren't willing to match it.
 
Here's a question that needs to be asked: Why on Earth is Napoleon invading Ireland?:confused: Seriously people, there is no reason for a French commander to invade the island as its a complete waste of men and materials. Ireland was, and still is, poorer then England. The island is father away from Europe then England which makes it worthless as a staging area for any European invader trying to get to England. This is especially true for France when they can just cross the English Channel for smaller supply lines. The two countries are only 11 miles apart at their closest point. The British Navy doesn't factor into the analysis as being able to get to Ireland would mean that France had to have defeated the British Navy just like they would for an invasion of England. Finally, there is no prestige to be had as Ireland was not on anyone's radar of importance except for the English.
 

amphibulous

Banned
Here's a question that needs to be asked: Why on Earth is Napoleon invading Ireland?

It's about harbours. France has only about 5 potentially really decent Atlantic ports, making it a snap to blockade. The UK has hundreds, and so does Ireland. Blue water blockading - the unique and critical British "special move" - becomes an appalling problem with Ireland in enemy hands.
 
It's about harbours. France has only about 5 potentially really decent Atlantic ports, making it a snap to blockade. The UK has hundreds, and so does Ireland. Blue water blockading - the unique and critical British "special move" - becomes an appalling problem with Ireland in enemy hands.

Sorry, but that reason is foolish. French troops and French supplies come from one place: France. Even if you were to launch an invasion from Ireland to England out of all those harbors, you still have to deal with the fact that the supplies come from France. Thus, your argument is invalid as the British can still cut the invasion supplies off from reaching Ireland by blockading France.
 

amphibulous

Banned
Sorry, but that reason is foolish. French troops and French supplies come from one place: France.

Ok: you know nothing about the Napoleonic Empire.

No, troops and supplies came from all over Europe.

Even if you were to launch an invasion from Ireland to England out of all those harbors, you still have to deal with the fact that the supplies come from France.
Thus, your argument is invalid as the British can still cut the invasion supplies off from reaching Ireland by blockading France.
Ok...

#One#
The above is actually reasonably intelligent thinking, given that you don't seem to know much about the Napoleonic Wars. In fact, the biggest difference between the NW and previous wars was that the French Army largely lived off the land for everything except ammunition. There is a superb overview of Napoleonic supply in Zamoyski's ultra-readable 1812 book.

So once Nappy gets an army to the UK, he only has to keep them in gunpowder and lead. This really isn't too hard - you only need a very few ships to get through, and you now have scores of places to launch them from.

#Two#
You didn't read properly.

I never specified that the British concern was invasion only - I didn't mention invasion at all, in fact.

The French had a fairly effective privateer campaign going Britain for much of the war. If they can get those Irish harbours it can go into overdrive and you can bring up French frigates. This gives the French a real shot at damaging the British economy. Yes, the English could counter this - but it means finding ships.

This potentially weakens the blue water blockades. Which are in themselves amazing feats - no once else manages this sort of thing but the UK; in organizational - and possibly even technological (the Bunnel family's system for mass producing pulleys for rigging is perhaps the major takeoff point for the Industrial Revolution) - terms they're comparable to D-Day, the BoB radar net, or Apollo - but they have to be sustained for years. This is an effort that always skirts over-strain.

#Three#
Once you have lots of anchorages you can head out in a fog, lose the blockade force, and make it to a new unblockaded anchorage, then the enemy fleet has to split up and look for you. You can't do this with just 5 anchorages because they can all be blockaded.

What *is* true is that once Nappy gets Ireland he has trouble getting supplies there - but this isn't impossible because of the multitude of anchorages, and he really doesn't need that much. This isn't WW2 - cavalry still eats grass, and the weight of ammunition used in a battle would last a few minutes for a modern force. If Napoleon could get established in Ireland then, after the early critical period where supplies would be crucial, he can do a lot. He can't - but that's because the British know the danger and are ready to counter, not because it doesn't exist.
 
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