Napoleon in Iberia

[Flocculencio]

In OTL Napoleon seemed pretty content with letting his Marshals handle the Peninsular campaign against Wellington's Anglo-Portugese. He seemed more fixated on gaining Ultimate Power(tm) in Europe by charging off into Russia

What if, after Massena is repulsed from Portugal in early 1811, Napoleon decides to take control of events in Iberia himself instead of sending in Marmont and Soult? How would l'Empereur have performed? And how would Wellington have performed facing Napoleon?

 

[Iñaki]

It would be interesting.

Apart of at least delay the campaign of 1812 against Russia, there were some good probabilities that Napoleon could suffer difficulties, not only for Wellington and the fact of the spanish partisans and that in 1811 the position of the French in Spain was not good, also as proved in the campaign of 1812 against Russia in OTL and the campaign in Germany in 1813 Napoleon was becoming less mental prepared to direct in form so brilliant the french armies, in fact the battle of Borodino in 1812 that had could be a great french victory was converted in a bloody affair with at the end an expensive french victory because the obssesion of Napoleon in direct attack IIRC, in any case the campaign of 1812 showed that Napoleon comitted all a serie of great mistakes, the Napoleon of Austerlitz and Jena was not the Napoleon of 1812 ( I think that the exception was surely part of the campaign of 1814 when Napoleon showed his best old times when in a succession of fast battles in Northern France defeated prussians and austrians, unfortunately the 1814 situation was very bad and the allied armies outnumbered highly the french armies, these victories only delayed the final enter of the allies in Paris)

With the fact of Napoleon being more obsessive in fixed ideas and less fast to react in decisive situations combined with the little will to receive logical advises from his generals and marshals, there are great probabilities for making a bloody affair for Napoleon this new campaign in 1811-? (at least it would be far more complex and dangerous than his brilliant first direct campaign of 1808 in Spain).

 

[Thande]

Robert Harvey reckons that Napoleon knew the Peninsular campaign was unwinnable after about 1809 and deliberately divorced himself from it so he wouldn't have to take the blame for what would have been, at best, probably the reinstallation of Ferdinand with diplomacy wooing him back to the French side. Don't know if there's any truth to that.

Napoleon just sticking around for Corunna would probably make a big difference.

 

[Thande]

And how would Wellington have performed facing Napoleon?

Think Napoleon in Egypt. Probably Nosey would have lost a set-piece battle against Boney, but ultimately the French would be hampered by the fact that Napoleon seemed convinced that the people of any country he invaded would support him, when they turned aside as soon as he'd moved on. If you look at the Syrian campaign, Napoleon won all the actual battles against British and allied Turkish commanders, but didn't achieve anything by the end of it. I think that's pretty much what would happen in Spain.

 

[Flocculencio]

Probably Nosey would have lost a set-piece battle against Boney,

Would have been interesting though. After all Nosey never really did have a proper set-piece battle against Boney. At Waterloo he had his rag tag relatively green army thrown together from all different sources.

I don't doubt Napoleon would have pushed him out of Spain, as Marmont and Soult did in the 1811-12 campaign season but it seems to me that the ensuing strike into Portugal would give both of them the opportunity to shine what with Napoleon on the offensive and Wellington on the defence. Nosey might have to fall back to the Lines of Torres Vedras once again but I don't think Napoleon could dislodge him. He'd be stuck in the same trap as Massena with his army getting whittled away by hunger and partisans while Wellington waits out the winter sitting on top of his Lines.

 

[Thande]

I don't think Napoleon could dislodge him. He'd be stuck in the same trap as Massena with his army getting whittled away by hunger and partisans while Wellington waits out the winter sitting on top of his Lines.

I don't think even Napoleon could defeat Torres Vedras. Amphibious assault would be the only way around the Lines and the French navy, by that point, was in no position to attempt it.

 

[Faeelin]

I'm inclined to agree. After all, Napoleon could have gone to Spain OTL, and didn't; this makes me think he realized he could not handle it.

 

[Rockingham]

Needs an earlier POD for a total victory, but we might see spain divided.....newly created aragon, Basque region, etc. as client stes or annexed to France?

If Napoleon could get some segment of the Spanish population to support him, perhaps promising it independance, some of his problems would be solved.

 

[Thande]

Needs an earlier POD for a total victory, but we might see spain divided.....newly created aragon, Basque region, etc. as client stes or annexed to France?

OTL France annexed Catalonia, a somewhat questionable decision considering that the Catalans had perhaps the greatest hereditary hatred of the French of all Spaniards.

Giving the Basques independence is iffy because France also has a Basque region that would want to join it - it'd be like Turkey supporting Iraqi-Kurdistan's independence now.

If Napoleon could get some segment of the Spanish population to support him, perhaps promising it independance, some of his problems would be solved.

He did have some support, but AFAIK it wasn't concentrated in any one geographic region.

 

[Iñaki]

Originally posted by Faeelin
I'm inclined to agree. After all, Napoleon could have gone to Spain OTL, and didn't; this makes me think he realized he could not handle it.

In fact Napoleon leaded personally his troops against spanish armies in 1808 after the spanish victory in Bailen obligated the french to retire east of Ebro, in OTL Napoleon took the command to solve this situation obtaining great victories against spanish armies and finally entering in Madrid, it seems that in part were the rumours that Austria was preparing for war against France the fact that made Napoleon put the command of french forces in Spain under another hands because he needed to prepare his armies against the onslaught against the austrians.

Originally posted by Thande
Quote:
Originally Posted by Emperor_of_Rockingham
Needs an earlier POD for a total victory, but we might see spain divided.....newly created aragon, Basque region, etc. as client stes or annexed to France?

OTL France annexed Catalonia, a somewhat questionable decision considering that the Catalans had perhaps the greatest hereditary hatred of the French of all Spaniards.

Giving the Basques independence is iffy because France also has a Basque region that would want to join it - it'd be like Turkey supporting Iraqi-Kurdistan's independence now.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Emperor of Rockingham
If Napoleon could get some segment of the Spanish population to support him, perhaps promising it independance, some of his problems would be solved.

He did have some support, but AFAIK it wasn't concentrated in any one geographic region.

France had a centralized administration based in departaments, in fact Napoleon had a taste in annexing great zones as french departments, Piedmont, Genova, part of Hannover including Hamburg IIRC, belgium (although this was inherited from the times of the Republic), the Netherlands in 1810, in any case Napoleon contemplated the formation of independent nations or puppet nations in these cases: not a new kingdom of Netherlands after expelling his own brother Louis from the throne, not a kingdom of Piedmont or a North German Federation centered in Hamburg, simplily annexation.

This was the case of Catalonia (with the Val of Aran annexed even before 1812 when he annexed the rest of Catalonia) and Andorra.

So there was little probabilites for possible puppet independence, Napoleon had annexed the Basque Country to French Empire.

Respect to the support to Napoleon or better say to the spanish goverment of Jose I, brother of Napoleon, was made in great part by intellectuals and men that considered the benefits of a possible illustrated government of Jose I sufficiently big to exchange for a supposed temporal presence of french armies in Spain, this was the case of an important amount of illustrated spanish people that was named despectively by the rest of spanish population "afrancesados", but apart of this there was any support to Napoleon from the popular classes in Spain, they hated the french, also Napoleon intervening and interfering ever in the attempts of Jose I to try to govern as a real independent spanish monarch not gave facilities to Jose I to attract the people.

 

[Condottiero]

Giving the Basques independence is iffy because France also has a Basque region that would want to join it - it'd be like Turkey supporting Iraqi-Kurdistan's independence now.


He did have some support, but AFAIK it wasn't concentrated in any one geographic region.

Moreover giving the basques independence almost 70 years before basque nationalism was created would have been quite weird and would not have been even understood by the basques.