Napoleon III killed in 1858: effects on Italian unification?

I think there would still be a Mexican intervention, but there won't be the empire building that happened OTL. Probably they show up, shoot a few things, march around and make sure that their loan payments get back on schedule.
 
That!

But if 1866 happens is not a sure thing here.

For one 1859 is likely to be butterflied away, so no Kingdom of Italy allying with Prussia - Austria is instead still holding one of its richer provinces - make that the Austrian army is stronger (not much but a bit is seemingly enough) AND the troops Austria has to keep in the South are likey with the North Army in this scenario.

In addition Bismarck waited with 1866 until he had Italys support, he might not dare to move in this scenario.


Indeed, will Bismarck even be in power?

During the 1859 war, Prussia mobilised, and it went very badly. This triggered some drastic army reforms, which in turn triggered the collision between Wilhelm I and the Landtag which in its turn led to Bismarck's appointment. No 1859 war most likely butterflies this away, or at least postpones it many years. So Bismarck's appointment is at least considerably delayed and may well be eliminated altogether.
 
Indeed, will Bismarck even be in power?

During the 1859 war, Prussia mobilised, and it went very badly. This triggered some drastic army reforms, which in turn triggered the collision between Wilhelm I and the Landtag which in its turn led to Bismarck's appointment. No 1859 war most likely butterflies this away, or at least postpones it many years. So Bismarck's appointment is at least considerably delayed and may well be eliminated altogether.

Butterflies everywhere ;)
 
I'm still hoping for a Republican France that would lead to war with the Austrian Empire over Italy, and Austria get beat big time.

And should they be no war, what would happen to Austria without the reforms that happen afterward?
 
I'm still hoping for a Republican France that would lead to war with the Austrian Empire over Italy, and Austria get beat big time.

Would war be likely under a Republic? Neither the Second nor Third Rep was particularly bellicose.

And should they be no war, what would happen to Austria without the reforms that happen afterward?

Austria carries on as an absolute monarchy some years longer, until it has a bad experience against some other power and has to rethink.
 
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If the Empress dies, than Prince Jerome becomes the regent. He might be able to keep a III. Republic at bay, but I donm't think he will start a war against Austria over Italy. Cavour might actually kill himself in this TL.

1859 remains peaceful. No horrible battles that lead idirectly to the ceation of the Red Cross. International disater relief might look quite differently in this world.

The deplorable state of the Prussian militia-based army will remain unknown for some time longer.

In Italy, the conservatives and clericals (and Austria!) mostly wanted the particularist courts and the Papal Domains to stay intact; while liberals and radicals wanted a secular and unitary Italian state. Either as a republic or under the House of Savoy, the only one neither Habsburg nor Bourbon.

Either a radicalized and isolated French Republic nor a hot-headed Plon-Plon would necesarily have been an attractive ally for the King of Sardinia.

An Italian Confederation under the presidium of the Pope and with the King of Lombardo-Venetia (ie the Austrian Emperor) as the leader of a semi-unified military and navy, with regular meeting of the crowns or their delegates seem like a missed opportunity. A secure position for Austria and her cronies/allies in Italy might even have led to greater Austrian tolerance for Prussian demands fo equality inside Germany (or totally irrational imperial overreach. We talk about FJ, after all.)
 
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