Napoleon III doesn't get involved in Italy, doesn't help the Sardinians

Because Felice Orsini doesn't attempt to Napoleon III life and/or the Kingdom of Sardinia , ruled by a less able prime minister than Camillo Benso Conte of Cavour, doesn't partecipate in the Crimean war .

We could consider two options:

a) Napoleon III leaves the Italians on their own and he gets involved in other enterprises maybe overseas.

b) Napoleon III even threatens the Sardinians to get Savoy and Nice which were historically the reward for the French partecipation in the Second Italian War of Indipendence

What's going to happen to the Peninsula? Will it be able to achieve unification vs Austria without the support of a great power?
 
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Italian unification is a non-starter without French involvement. Austria is too strong relative to Sardinia and has beaten her before. That could change if Austria gets into trouble on another front. Perhaps an alliance with Prussia down the road.

For France, non-involvement is a good thing. Instead of a rival nation state in the Med, they have the collection of weak states and France could focus on preventing German unification.
 
Italian unification is a non-starter without French involvement. Austria is too strong relative to Sardinia and has beaten her before. That could change if Austria gets into trouble on another front. Perhaps an alliance with Prussia down the road.

For France, non-involvement is a good thing. Instead of a rival nation state in the Med, they have the collection of weak states and France could focus on preventing German unification.

But they don't have Savoy and Nice : what I don't understand is why France didn't take them directly from the weak Italians instead of having to fight a war against Austria.

So basically the Sardinians to realize the Italian unification would have to wait till 1866 much weakened for the Austro- Prussian war .

The Austrians would have more troops to face the Prussians , or the French - Austrians would fight off the Prussian - Sardinians probably with success.

Once the Austrians are defeated the rest of the peninsula will fall easily.
 
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I doubt Britain would support Sardina with anything more than diplomatic backing. Militarily I don' see Sardinia doing well agains Austria. If they still join P{russia in 1866 they might gain some territory.

Italian unification may still happen eventually but it will take much longer.
 
No french support means Austria keeps Lombardy in 1859 and no unification in 1860, so Germany has no strong ally in 1866 - so it is possible that the German unification takes a different course. HArd to tell what happens in 1860+
 
Concern that Britain might support Sardinia?

Surely Austria won't help the Sardinians in case of French aggression.

Here there is a map of Italy if the Plombières secret agreements between France and Sardinia were going to be fulfilled: a sort of confederation like the German one under French influence with the Pope as honorary president (without Savoy and Nice)

Italia_di_Plombi%C3%A8res.jpg
 
No french support means Austria keeps Lombardy in 1859 and no unification in 1860, so Germany has no strong ally in 1866 - so it is possible that the German unification takes a different course. HArd to tell what happens in 1860+

Strong ally is a bit of an overstatement, but maybe Sardinia alone is sufficent to divert enough Austrian divisions in 1866 from the Prussian front and the latter wins anyway.
 
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Strong ally is a bit of an overstatement, but maybe Sardinia alone is sufficent to divert enough Austrian divisions in 1866 from the Prussian front and the latter wins anyway.

Realistically the Austrians would only need to keep a small force in Lombardy, probably garrisons in Milan and the Quadrilatero. Without French backing Sardinia wouldn't dare attack Austria on their own again as there's no guarantee that the Emperor wouldn't decide to annex some territory this time around. Plus, with no Italian war Franco-Austrian relations would be better, possibly leading to a a formal alliance, which would mean that Prussia will have to curtail its ambitions for the time being, unless they can bring Russia into a full military alliance.
 
Realistically the Austrians would only need to keep a small force in Lombardy, probably garrisons in Milan and the Quadrilatero. Without French backing Sardinia wouldn't dare attack Austria on their own again as there's no guarantee that the Emperor wouldn't decide to annex some territory this time around. Plus, with no Italian war Franco-Austrian relations would be better, possibly leading to a a formal alliance, which would mean that Prussia will have to curtail its ambitions for the time being, unless they can bring Russia into a full military alliance.

In the first Italian war of indipendence mainly fought by the Sardinians Austria had about 100.000 troops deployed.
In 1866 Austria had 190.000 deployed vs the unified Italians. I don't know if
+90000 austrians delpoyed against the Prussians can make the difference.

If Sardinia doesn't manage to unify Italy even in 1866 (but Germany does) then in 1914 Austria could face two Serbias.

Here there is an alternate timeline

1914 - Archiduke Franz Ferdinand is assassinated in Milan with his wife by the Italian Carbonari

-Austria Launches an ultimatum to Piedmont which is refused
-Austria mobilizes
-France allied with Piedmont mobilizes
-Germany mobilizes
-Russia allied with France mobilizes
-Austria invades Piedmont
-Germany declares war vs France and invades Belgium
-Russia declares war vs Germany and Austria
-UK declares war against Germany and Austria etc...


1915 Serbia and Romania opportunisticaly attack the Austrian empire to get Bosnia and Transylvania respectively

Bs-VTSsIAAAAxCB.jpg
 
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Its not a question of 90k men more or less for a theater.

LEts assume 1848/49 runs as otl, but 1859 does not happen as OTL.

The whole buildup to the 1866 war is different.

1. Austria still has Lomardia - one of the most prosperous provinces of the empire. That is more tax revenues. And Austrias neglect of the army was mostly caused by not enough money available. So we must assume that Austrias army is overall in better shape in the alternate TL.

2. Austria was not defeated in 1859, so it appears to be stronger (at least on paper) - Maybe Bismarck is more cautious - so (german) unification is delayed (a bit)

3. Sardinia Piemont is one italian country, but there are several others who are backing Austria with more probability than supporting Sardinia (well basically Sardinia piemont is much weaker than an unified Italia.

4. Maybe Prussia seeks a different ally - Russia is likely, but would russia be willing to join in against Austria - they hold a grudge, but OTOH it would be likely that if Russia attacks Austria too that France AND England might join Austria (with the developing great game not unlikely)

5. Your 1914 Italian assasination scenario is largely depending on the assumption that not much has changed in the alliance system. Thats quite unlikely given the current development. Its likely Austria is still strong in italy (not well liked, but strong) - but that also has influence on many other things among them that there is no Ottoman Italian war. That might influence the course of teh Balkan wars for once.
 
3. Sardinia Piemont is one italian country, but there are several others who are backing Austria with more probability than supporting Sardinia (well basically Sardinia piemont is much weaker than an unified Italia.

Are you talking about Naples? Their army seemed to be good only vs internal insurrections. Against foreign armies they always underperformed and had low morale.

Tuscany, the Papacy and the two small duchies don't count.

5. Your 1914 Italian assasination scenario is largely depending on the assumption that not much has changed in the alliance system. Thats quite unlikely given the current development. Its likely Austria is still strong in italy (not well liked, but strong) - but that also has influence on many other things among them that there is no Ottoman Italian war. That might influence the course of teh Balkan wars for once.

AFAIK during the Italo-Turkish war the Ottoman army had limited casualities. The Balkan states had the means to defeat the Turks even without Italian indirect help.
 
In the first Italian war of indipendence mainly fought by the Sardinians Austria had about 100.000 troops deployed.
In 1866 Austria had 190.000 deployed vs the unified Italians. I don't know if
+90000 austrians delpoyed against the Prussians can make the difference.

If Sardinia doesn't manage to unify Italy even in 1866 (but Germany does) then in 1914 Austria could face two Serbias.

Here there is an alternate timeline

1914 - Archiduke Franz Ferdinand is assassinated in Milan with his wife by the Italian Carbonari

-Austria Launches an ultimatum to Piedmont which is refused
-Austria mobilizes
-France allied with Piedmont mobilizes
-Germany mobilizes
-Russia allied with France mobilizes
-Austria invades Piedmont
-Germany declares war vs France and invades Belgium
-Russia declares war vs Germany and Austria
-UK declares war against Germany and Austria etc...


1915 Serbia and Romania opportunisticaly attack the Austrian empire to get Bosnia and Transylvania respectively

Bs-VTSsIAAAAxCB.jpg


Yeah HIGHLY unlikely.First, with a POD in 1859 there is no guarantee that Archduke Franz Ferdinand would become heir to the throne. Second, Austria could end up defeating Prussia if they don't have to fight on two fronts and if France ends up on their side, so no Germany. Third Sardinia-Piedmont and Serbia would NOT be in the same position. OTL Serbia more or less ruled over all of their fellow Serbs and only needed the lands ruled by Austria-Hungary to create Yugoslavia. Sardinia would not only have to deal with Austria but also the rest of the Italian states, and there is no guarantee that they will remain as weak as they were in 1859-1860.

Really with a POD half a century before the OTL start of WWI, its impossible to fully predict what would happen.
 
Yeah HIGHLY unlikely.First, with a POD in 1859 there is no guarantee that Archduke Franz Ferdinand would become heir to the throne. Second, Austria could end up defeating Prussia if they don't have to fight on two fronts and if France ends up on their side, so no Germany. Third Sardinia-Piedmont and Serbia would NOT be in the same position. OTL Serbia more or less ruled over all of their fellow Serbs and only needed the lands ruled by Austria-Hungary to create Yugoslavia. Sardinia would not only have to deal with Austria but also the rest of the Italian states, and there is no guarantee that they will remain as weak as they were in 1859-1860.

Really with a POD half a century before the OTL start of WWI, its impossible to fully predict what would happen.

Prussia was able to defeat Austria under much worse conditions as you well know. Italy was IMO helpful but not necessary especially if France kept its neutrality.

Actually Serbia was labeled as the "Piedmont of the Balkans" by Serbians and Austrians alike.

If there is no revolution there I can bet on the protracted weakness of the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies and the Papacy (the other states are non-entites). Sardinians at least had a discrete military tradition to rely on
given their previous wars vs France and Austria.
 
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