Basically Nappy did that bc you know he almost got killed by an italian anarchist IOTL, Instead of being more sympathetic to italy as a result like IOTL, Nappy III decided to align itself to Austria more. As it almost killed him, it had different effects on him, Then at the second italian war of indepedence, France attacks Italy to gain savoy and Nice, as ITTL they had a secret agreement with them. Then took it, and dismantled italy and divided the spheres of influence between Austria and France. How would it affect Europe
Napoleon III Backs Austria instead of Italy during the 2nd Italian war of indepedence
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Sardinia-Piedmont will not provoke the Austrians into attacking without full confidence of French help.
Before 1859 most Italian states were under Austrian influence anyways, so what's the gain for Austria?
Before 1859 most Italian states were under Austrian influence anyways, so what's the gain for Austria?
Sardinia-Piedmont is definitely not going to attack Austria on their own, so it would be a war of aggression started by France. This would make life easier for Prussia as German states have more reasons to unify against France.
Would this be more plausible?:
Napoleon III took advantage of the attempt to accuse the Kingdom of Sardinia of assisting terrorists and consequently demanded Nice and Savoy as concessions under threat of war.
Sardinia ceded the requested territories, but its national pride was hurt by being powerless before its neighbors France and Austria. For this reason, Sardinia came firmly under Prussian influence with the desire to imitate the political and military evolution of that country (a small nation caught between great powers that managed to stand out and establish itself as a major player).
Could it be that the Austro-Prussian War becomes an Alternative Italian War of Independence? (France and Austria on the one hand and Prussia, the North German Confederation and Sardinia on the other)
Napoleon III took advantage of the attempt to accuse the Kingdom of Sardinia of assisting terrorists and consequently demanded Nice and Savoy as concessions under threat of war.
Sardinia ceded the requested territories, but its national pride was hurt by being powerless before its neighbors France and Austria. For this reason, Sardinia came firmly under Prussian influence with the desire to imitate the political and military evolution of that country (a small nation caught between great powers that managed to stand out and establish itself as a major player).
Could it be that the Austro-Prussian War becomes an Alternative Italian War of Independence? (France and Austria on the one hand and Prussia, the North German Confederation and Sardinia on the other)
Sardinia won't fight Austria without French support, much less both of them at the same time.
So, Felice Orsini was a Papal citizen, not a Sardinian one. While in London, around 1857 I believe, He had tried to contact Cavour who had prudently never responded. I know that pieces of evidence may be forged if one wishes to do so, and Napoleon III was mercurial, to say the least, but I think that there are no bases whatsoever to demand Sardinia cede Savoy and Nice on the basis of an act of a guy who is not even a citizen and has no link whatsoever to the Sardinian government.
Obviously. That is why I say that they would give up the required territories.
However, Sardinia's actions have raised hopes for a possible Unified Kingdom of Italy and irritated Austria, France and Great Britain.
How exactly has Sardinia irritated France and Great Britain? By allying with them in the Crimean War? By seeking British investment? IIRC the British public was favorable to the Italian cause, and so was Palmerston (it was the Bourbon regime in Naples that was despised in London). Napoleon, when a young member of the Carboneria, had actually sworn to make anything to help the Italian Unification, and it is possible that it was the sense of guilt for not having done so that sparked his OTL reaction to Orsini's assassination attempt. Orsini was linked to Mazzini who had been condemned twice to death by the Sardinian government. Besides, both France and Britain could benefit from the Italian Unification, or at least, from a new balance of power in the Peninsula. Napoleon believed he could take Austria down a notch and create three kingdoms under his direct influence in Italy (the project of the Plombieres Agreement: Upper Italy to the Savoys, Central Italy to his cousin Plon-Plon, the South to the Bourbons or Lucien Murat); on the other hand, a unified Italian State could be in prospect a good counter in the Med to France, hence Britain could see this favorably. I really do not think that the international situation was favorable to a unilateral annexation of the ancestral seat of the House of Savoy and a largely Italian-speaking port based on something nobody could blame on Sardinia. What may happen? No Plombieres Agreement, no Second Italian War of Independence. Sardinia gets probably bankrupted in the early 1860s.
The idea of helping Sardinia in a second war against Austria was very unpopular in France to the point that Napoleon III did not have any kind of internal and external support other than his own whim, some collaborators and, of course, Sardinia.
Great Britain on the other hand saw badly altering the current balance of power of the continent (as always xd).
Well, the unpopularity of the War Napoleon started in Italy was directed to him; Sardinia had not irritated France in any way, the French people were annoyed at their ruler for sending their sons to die for a cause that had nothing to do with France (IIRC the whole Nice and Savoy thing was basically because Napoleon needed some gain to soothe discontent). So, in the scenario where Napoleon is not moved by Orsini's letter (which is possible), the French public has nothing to be irritated about with Sardinia. As for Britain, I will just quote from here :
"The British government by 1859 was understandably eager to find some solution to "the Italian Problem." The peace of Europe, it was argued, depended upon the tranquility of Italy, and the independence of the Italian peninsula was necessary to the European balance of power. British policy, in practice, had
sought to isolate Austria on the Italian question in order to facilitate her complete expulsion from the peninsula. A widespread British belief was that Austria's Italian possessions were "a very questionable element of her real power" and that it would be "an unmixed good" if the Austrians "were driven out of Italy for good and all." The Palmerston-Russell cabinet, which was formed only two months after hostilities had erupted between Austria and the French and Piedmontese allies, quickly concluded that the only possible outcome of the war must be "the entire and absolute relinquishment by Austria of her Italian provinces."
If france where to help the Austrians, Italy dosen't unify then, as Piedmont may be annexed by France, and the Expedition of the Thousand doesn't' occur, meaning France and Austria vs Prussia alone.